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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

AUGUST 31ST PREDICTIONS

Final Pre-festival guesswork

Tier 1 Prediction

Gary Oldman
59 yrs old | 54 films | 1 nomination
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

The surest thing this year... on paper that is. Oldman as Churchill. They love a "transformation"

Hugh Jackman
48 yrs old | 30 films | 1 nomination
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
Dec 25th

If he's as strong here as he was in Logan, they'll want to honor him. And LOGAN success will only help

Daniel Day-Lewis
59 yrs old | 21 films | 5 noms | 3 wins)
PHANTOM THREAD
Dec 25th

Another likely thing... on paper. Daniel Day Lewis as fashion designer feels... I dunno. I worry. But given that he's announced retirement expect a big campaign

Denzel Washington
62 yrs old | films | 7 noms | 2 wins *in acting
ROMAN ISRAEL, ESQ
Nov 3rd

Playing an idealistic lawyer in crisis. And since he (arguably) shoulda won last year... Plus this film is directed by Dan Gilroy of Nightcrawler fame so he knows from riveting leading men

 Matt Damon
46 yrs old | 52 films | 3 noms *in acting
DOWNSIZING
Dec 22nd

Alexander Payne comedies tend to have strong performances. But satire can be tough to sell and is rarely Oscar bait.

 
Tier 2 - Or maybe it will be...

Chadwick Boseman
40 yrs old | 9 films | never nominated
MARSHALL
Oct 13th

If the movie resonates or is a big hit, it's easy to picture the Black Panther being rubber stamped by the Academy before his big blockbuster

Andrew Garfield
33 yrs old | 11 films | 1 nomination
BREATHE
Oct 13th

Oscar loves a disability. And it's not uncommon to have someone from the previous year repeating in the nominee pool

Jake Gyllenhaal
36 yrs old | 33 films | 1 nomination)
STRONGER
Sept 22nd

Another biographical piece. Oscar owes Jake and he's playing a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing struggling to recover when he loses his legs. But buzz is not there at this point.

Timothée Chalamet
21 yrs old | 9 films | never nominated
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Nov 24th

He's already won "revelatory" style raves for his sexual awakening. But Oscar hasn't gone for a man this young (in lead) since the days of Mickey Rooney! And they rarely go for men in romantic dramas

Tom Hanks
60 yrs old | 5 noms | 2 wins
THE PAPERS
tba

 

 He could be a hot contender. On the other hand, Oscar keeps passing on him even with high profile films and acclaimed star turns as if that two back-to-back in the 90s did him in for future honors
 
Tier 3- Could be Contenders

Bryan Cranston OR Steve Carell
1 nomination
LAST FLAG FLYING
Nov 3rd

 They're obviously both leads (with Fishburne arguable if you assume via the trailer that he arrives later) but you know Oscar...

 

Benedict Cumberbatch
40 yrs old | 24 films | 1 nomination
THE CURRENT WAR
Dec 22nd

Not every famous actor playing a famous real life character can be nominated in any given year. There are too many films like this. Still, he'll be considered.

Colin Farrell
40 yrs old | 41 films | never nominated
THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER
Nov 3rd

He's already proven he totally gets Yorgos Lanthimos. Could the film be well received enough for acting nominations?

Joaquin Phoenix
42 yrs old | 30 films | 3 nominations
YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE
tba

 Lynne Ramsay movies have been too difficult for Oscar voters so far. And this sex trafficking drama might be too wrenching for them.

Miles Teller
30 yrs old | 16 films | never nominated
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE
Oct 27th

Teller isn't universally loved but all it takes is the right role and some good luck. Will this PTSD drama win great reviews?

Tier 4 - But it's too early to rule any of these out

Matt Damon
46 yrs old | 52 films | 3 noms *in acting
SUBURBICON
Oct 27th

 Damon in comedy mode is usually a treat. But will this bloody period crime comedy have a solid handle on tone?

 

Steve Carell
54 yrs old | 29 films | 1 nomination
BATTLE OF THE SEXES
Sept 22nd

If Emma's Billy Jean King is a more substantial part he might be supporting as her rival but we'll see

Domhnall Gleeson
33 yrs old | 23 films | never nominated
GOODBYE CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
Nov 10th

Our suspicion is that Gleeson is going to need a "near miss" performance before he builds enough momentum for a nod. But he is playing a real person (AA Milne) and that goes a long way

Michael Fassbender
40 yrs old | 29 films | 2 nominations
THE SNOWMAN
Oct 13th

Oscar loves themselves alcoholic characters and if the film is high quality, he could return to the shortlist. But the film's trailer looks more like a box office thriller play than an Oscar contender

Javier Bardem
48 yrs old | 43 films | 3 noms | 1 win
LOVING PABLO
tba

 If the Spanish film gets a strong release / campaign. He's playing "the King of Cocaine" in this true story about a journalist's affair with a famous drug lord

 

 
Tier 5 - Other Male Leads
also...
  • Idris Elba - MOUNTAIN BETWEEN US
  • Daniel Craig - KINGS
  • Daniel Kaluuya - GET OUT
  • Hugh Jackman - LOGAN
  • Colin Firth - THE MERCY
  • Jonathan Pryce - THE WIFE
  • Charlie Plummer - LEAN ON PETE
  • Donald Sutherland - THE LEISURE SEEKER (sometimes referred to as ELLA & JOHN)
  • Billy Howle - ON CHESIL BEACH
  • Harris Dickinson - BEACH RATS
  • John Boyega -DETROIT (though we imagine they'll all campaign supporting)