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85th Oscars. Oscar Race for the Films of 2012
Predictions for entertainment / discussion purposes only. You can't discuss merit when you haven't yet seen the films... though people do (sigh).
April Foolish Predictions
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The Gods of the Race?
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Bill Murray
1 nomination
HYDE PARK ON HUDSON
Why?
Playing a famous real life character (in a wheelchair no less) with his trademark wit in a period drama with a strong cast.
But...
Bill Murray can be prickly and will he want to campaign again?
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Daniel Day-Lewis
4 nominations | 2 wins
LINCOLN
Why?
A world giant of acting playing one of the most famous men who ever lived in a film with a much Oscared team. Where's the downside?
But...
winning three is very difficult.
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Philip Seymour Hoffman
3 noms | 1 win
THE MASTER
Why?
Oscar and critics are nuts for him and this will be a meaty role. PT Anderson roles always are.
But...
will he overdo it. And will the veiled scientology-takedown turn some voters off.
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Hugh Jackman
never nominated
LES MISERABLES
Why?
He's easy to love and he's a better actor than he gets credit for being. Embracing one of his best gifts (music) might be just the trick
But...
Only two men have ever won for a musical.
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John Hawkes
1 nomination
THE SURROGATE
Why?
He won raves at Sundance and Oscar voters love male characters with significant disabilities. If the film is an arthouse hit...
But...
what kind of release and push will it get?
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Threats to the Crown
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Clint Eastwood
2 noms for acting
THE TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE
Why?
If they get sentimental about his retirement from acting this father daughter drama could do it.
But...
He already retired from acting with Gran Torino. Will it stick this time?
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Brad Pitt
3 noms for acting
KILLING THEM SOFTLY
Why?
Fresh off a career best year now would be the time to strike, momentum wise.
But...
It's a tough year in this category. So many baity roles.
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Terence Stamp
1 nomination
A SONG FOR MARION
Why?
If the film is a crowdpleaser we could see this brilliant man finally up for gold playing a grumpy man who joins a church choir.
But...
Some brilliant actors can't get arrested with Oscar.
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Ben Affleck
never nominated for acting
ARGO
Why?
He's aging well and respect is growing. If he directs himself superbly they might bite.
But...
More likely in Best Director I'm guessing.
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Oscar Isaac
never nominated
INSIDE LWELYN DAVIS
Why?
He's the title character in a period music drama by filmmakers Oscar loves. He's a rising actor, too.
But...
Coen Bros films aren't nominated as often for acting as they should be.
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Can They Rally an Army of Supporters?
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Leonardo DiCaprio
4 nominations
THE GREAT GATSBY
Why?
Suave, charming, mysterious, rich... it'll be a nice change of pace from DiCaprio's past few roles.
But...
Gatsby isn't a "baity" part per se. It's too glamorous
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Jamie Foxx
2 noms | 1 win
DJANGO UNCHAINED
Why?
Lead roles in Tarantino films are coveted gets. Can he find Oscar love again?
But...
the film might prove too discomfiting for some voters
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Christopher Plummer
2 noms | 1 win
BARRYMORE
Why?
Occassionally afterglow nets you a nomination and this stage performance was wildly acclaimed
But...
it's still a stage performance and as such it would be an odd nomination.
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Bradley Cooper
never nominated
THE SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Why?
David O. Russell is great with actors and he plays a man leaving a mental institution.
But...
"Bradley Cooper: Oscar Nominee" doesn't sound quite right yet, does it?
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It's Foolish To Predict in April. Anything Can Happen!
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Other Leads This Year: Liam Neeson - The Grey; Paul Rudd - This is Forty; Ryan Gosling - The Gangster Squad; Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines; Colin Farrel - Seven Psychopaths ; Shia Labeouf - Lawless; Robert Pattinson - Cosmopolis; Colin Farrel - Total Recall; Johnny Depp - Dark Shadows; Mads Mikkelsen - A Royal Affair
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