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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

AUGUST 31st PREDICTIONS

final pre-festival guesswork

Tier 1 - Predictions

Michael Stuhlbarg
49 yrs old | films | never nominated
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Nov 24th

 He plays a progressive father to a young queer teen. Said to have a great late film monologue - Oscar clip scene, hello!

 

Willem Dafoe
62 yrs old | 95 films | 2 nominations

Rave reviews for his work in this indie. Sean Baker's films are so undervalued and this could be a breakthrough

Jason Mitchell
30 yrs old | films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
tba

He's already past the hurdle of great reviews and if they remember how good he was in Straight Outta Compton, too. Plus he's terrific in a small but key role in Kathryn Bigelo's DETROIT.

Michael Shannon
42 yrs old | films | 2 nominations
THE CURRENT WAR
Dec 22nd

 He's proven twice that he can get an Oscar nomination without ANY precursor support. This role looks big in a prestige  project. But the film hasn't yet gotten buzzy at all.

 

Sterling K Brown
41 yrs old | films | never nominated
MARSHALL
Oct 13th

He plays a man accused of rape and attempted murder that the Thurgood Marshall defends in court. Brown has been enjoying a huge run on television of late. Can the Emmy attention translate to Oscar love?

 
Tier 2- Or Maybe It'll Be...

 

Armie Hammer
30 yrs old | 17 films | never nominated
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Nov 24th

 He romances his boss's son in this acclaimed drama about first love. Won "best work of his career" reviews at Sundance. But romantic nominations for men are tough to come by.

 

 

Jamie Bell
31 yrs old | 20 films | never nominated
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
tba
Playing a young man who becomes close to a dying movie star this shoul
d be a smashing duet  - they clearly are planning supporting despite a duet style film.

 

 

 

Harrison Ford
75 yrs old | 50 films | 1 nomination
BLADE RUNNER 2049
Oct 6th

 If voters were touched by his revival of Han Solo here's a second chance to honor him for a reprisal and for being such a giant movie star within pop culture.

Javier Bardem
48 yrs old | 43 films | 3 noms | 1 win)
MOTHER!
Sept 15th

 The project is still secretive but Oscar loves him and if the project is exciting he'll be considered. He gets the biggest showcases in the audio only tease that's going around (seems to be a cult leader?)

 

Mark Rylance
57 yrs old | 14 films | 1 nom | 1 win
DUNKIRK
July 21st

 He's probably the safest bet for a campaign in this ensemble film. But on the other hand it's much more of a director's picture than an actor's showcase

 

 

 
Tier 3 - Could Be Contenders

Kevin Spacey

58 yrs old | 48 films | 2 noms | 2 wins
ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Dec 8th

 He plays a billionaire whose son is kidnapped in this Ridley Scott drama (lead or supporting, though?)

 

Jim Belushi
63 yrs old | 57 films | never nominated
WONDER WHEEL
Dec 1st

  It's the Winslet show but early viewers seem quite surprised by reportedly strong work as her husband. Surprise can really rev up a campaign.

Garret Hedlund
32 yrs old | 16 films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
tba

Won terrific reviews for this sprawling drama at Sundance. But Mitchell will likely be the one if someone is nominated

Patrick Stewart
77 yrs old | 36 films | never nominated
LOGAN
March 3rd

He won much praise for this last go at Professor Xavier. But in the end it's still a superhero film and they'd have to fight hard for a nomination

Laurence Fishburne
56 yrs old | 59 films | 1 nomination
WOMAN WALKS AHEAD
Nov 3rd

This looks like a three lead film but since he's third billed, expect his pastor vet to be campaigned here.

 
Tier 4 - Too early to rule anyone out!

Ali Fazal
??? yrs old | 14 films | never nominated
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Sept 22nd

 This young rising international star plays Abdul Karim who becomes an unexpected confidante to Queen Victoria (Judi Dench) but buzz on the film is really quiet to date

 

Ray Romano
59 yrs old | 8 films | never nominated
THE BIG SICK
Nov 17th

He's a wonderful scene partner for both Kumail Nanjiani and Holly Hunter. But can the sleeper hit survive the onslaught of fall prestige releases for awards play?

Ben Mendelsohn
48 yrs old | 44 films | never nominated
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

The film appears to be a perfect fit for Oscar's wheelhouse. He plays King George VI... a role which won Colin Firth his Oscar in The King's Speech

Richard Jenkins
70 yrs old | 77 films | 1 nomination
SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

The actors branch can be resistant to genre (which is strange because stylistically they're not the easiest performances to give) but if the film is as good as people are saying.

 

Nicolas Hoult
27 yrs old | 22 films | never nominated
THE CURRENT WAR
Dec 22nd

He's got a colorful character to play but he role might be minor and even when he's excellent (Fury Road anyone?) critics dont seem to notice

 
Tier 5 - It all depends on who gets meaty scenes, best in show reviews and whether the films have heat in other categories to buoy them up.
  • Waltz - DOWNSIZING (December)
  • Patinkin - WONDER (Nov 17th)
  • Efron - GREATEST SHOWMAN (Dec 25th)
  • Isaac - SUBURBICON (Nov 3rd)
  • Timberlake - WONDER WHEEL (Dec 1st)
  • Wahlberg or Plummer - ALL THE MONEY... (Dec 8th)
  • 🔺 Farrel  - ROMAN ISRAEL, ESQ
  • Boyega or Poulter - DETROIT (Aug 4th)
  • Harris or Gleeson - MOTHER! (Oct 13th)
  • Greyeyes -WOMAN WALKS AHEAD (tba)
  • Whitehead - THE CHILDREN ACT (tba)
  • Harrelson or Rockwell - THREE BILLBOARDS (Oct 13th)
  • Stevens or Gad - MARSHALL (Oct 13th)
  • Hart - GOD'S OWN COUNTRY (Oct 27th)
  • 🔺 Stuhlbarg or Plemons or Whitford - THE PAPERS (Dec 22nd)
  • McDornan or Hedges -LADY BIRD (tba)
  • Harrelson - GLASS CASTLE