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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

AUGUST 9TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction

We hate to predict so many category fraud people but that's how Oscar has been doing for the past 20 years. Rhys & Pitt & Pryce & Majors & Dafoe are all (arguably) leads who are (maybe) headed towards supporting campaigns. Some of them will be successful. 

 

Willem Dafoe

63 yrs old | 4 nominations
THE LIGHTHOUSE
Release TBA

 

He's on a career roll at the moment and is playing a lighthouse keeper named simpley "Old" in the early 1900s. Great reviews but since it's a two-lead picture one of them will surely commit category fraud and word is that it's Dafoe.

Brad Pitt
55 years old | 3 noms *in acting
ONCE UPON A TIME...
July 26th

 This feels like a textbook case of Category Fraud waiting to happen. People love him in the movie - a true star turn - but it's not the type of role that he could be nominated in lead for. On the other hand some might not buy him as supporting and there is icky subtext to his character.

Jeffrey Wright

53 yrs old | never nominated
THE GOLDFINCH
Sept 13th

A key fine role (at least within the book) and John Crowley (the director) proved with Brooklyn and Boy A that he's gifted with actors. Wright is well respected as an actor so this could be the perfect time...

Al Pacino
78 years old | 8 noms | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN
Release TBA

He's playing real life infamous union leader Jimmy Hoffa presumably slain in '75 (his body has never been found) and he pops in the trailer. Plus goodwill from Once Upon a Tim in Hollywood. Comeback nom after 27 years away?

 

John Lithgow
73 years old | 2 nominations
UNTITLED ROGER AILES PROJECT
Dec 20th

Real life character and Oscar is obsessed with those. Also it's sure to be a very large supporting role if not a co-lead as he's playing Roger Aisles in this sexual harassment drama.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Joe Pesci
76 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN
Release tba

 Real life character and Oscar history. Both of his nominations (and his win) come from Scorsese pictures. He'd also have a comeback narrative. But there is internal competition.

Matthew Rhys
44 years old | never nominated
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN...
Nov 22nd

Surely a leading role as the film reportedly is about how his journalist character is changed by meeting TV icon Fred Rogers (Tom Hanks) but you know how these things go...

 

Antonio Banderas
58 yrs old | never nominated 
THE LAUNDROMAT 
Release tba

 Real life character. He and Oldman play law firm partners in crime in this journalism drama about the Panama papers expose. Pain & Glory will also boost him under the "it's time for career honors" angle,

 

Tracy Letts
53 years old | 
never nominated
FORD V FERRARI
Nov 15th

Real life character. He's playing Henry Ford II who is out to beat Ferrari at racing (after negotiations fell through to buy Ferrari's company) Letts is a national treasure but Oscar hasn't realized that yet. Also one of the leads might block any true supporting players with category frauding

Gary Oldman
58 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
THE LAUNDROMAT 
Release tba

Real life character. He and Banderas play law firm partners in crime in this journalism drama about the Panama papers expose. Sometimes they lose interest after giving "overdue" wins. So there's that danger for him even if he's brilliant.

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Ben Mendelsohn
50 years old | never nominated
THE KING
Release TBA

Real life character and Oscar loves royalty porn. Plus Mendelsohn seems like an obvious "future Oscar nominee" though this is a Netflix picture and there are a lot of those this year though they've generally only succeeded in getting one recognized

Jonathan Pryce
71 years old | never nominated
THE TWO POPES
Release TBA

 Real life famous character Pope Francis (and probably a co-lead) and he's never been recognized which might actually help given his long career. But this is a Netflix picture and there are a lot of those this year and they've generally only succeeded in getting one recognized in a major way.

Jonathan Majors
29 yrs old | never nominated
LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO
June 14th

He won spotlight reviews for his work in a memorable oddball role. If he were more famous or the movie had been a big hit, it's the type of part that could become a sure thing. But it might take a very smart campaign now.

Aldis Hodge
32 years old | never nominated
CLEMENCY 
Dec 27th 

He's playing a death row inmate and has won fine reviews. The problem could well be the release date (that's very late) and that he's facing much more famous competition.

Bruce Willis
64 years old | never nominated
MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN 
November 1st

Focal point character as he's playing the murder victim in this mystery (presumably in flashbacks). And Oscar likes a mentor role. Still, Willis has never gotten much credit for his talent (beyond fame and fortune that is) ...

 
Tier 4- Other Possibilities
 

Well-respected performances but it would take a very strong campaign

  • John Turturro in Gloria Bell -- but he would need a big push for Julianne Moore to win heat at year's end
  • Shia Labeouf in Honey Boy - playing a version of his father

Who will pop in these films? What will their roles be like?

  • 1917 - Benedict Cumberbatch, Colin Firth
  • Ad Astra - Tommy Lee Jones, Donald Sutherland, John Ortiz
  • Cats - Corden, Winstone, and Fairchild are playing the male cats that were Tony-nominated in the original Broadway show: Bustopher Jones, Growlitiger, and Munkustrap... but the more likely Oscar contenders (if the movie isn't derided on release feel like McKellen and Elba)
  • Downhill - Kristofer Hivju
  • Ford v Ferrari - Christian Bale (if supporting), Matt Damon (if supporting), Jon Bernthal, JJ Feild, Josh Lucas, and Ray McKinnon
  • Gemini Man - Clive Owen, Benedict Wong
  • The Goldfinch - Luke Wilson, Denis O'Hare, Aneurin Barnard
  • The Good Liar - Russell Tovey, Jim Carter
  • Harriet - Leslie Odom Jr, Joe Alwyn, Clarke Peters, Zackary Momoh (is he playing Harriet's husband?), Vondie Curtis Hall, Tim Guinee (is he playing abolitionist John Brown?).
  • The Irishman - Jesse Plemmons, Bobby Cannavale, Ray Romano, Harry Keitel, Sebastian Mansicalco. A sprawling Scorsese ensemble so who knows who (if anyone) will pop?
  • JoJo Rabbit - Taika Waititi, Sam Rockwell, Alfie Allen, Stephen Merchant
  • Judy - Rufus Sewell (as Sidney Luft, Judy's ex husband), Michael Gambon (as Bernard Delfont, theatrical producer), and Finn Wittrock (as Mickey Deans, Judy's young husband who she married three months before her death)
  • The Laundromat - Matthias Schoenaerts, Robert Patrick, James Cromwell, Will Forte, Jeffrey Wright, David Schwimmer
  • Little Women - Timothée Chalamet, Bob Odenkirk, James Norton, and Louis Garrel
  • Lucy in the Sky - Jon Hamm, Dan Stevens
  • Motherless Brooklyn - Willem Dafoe, Bobby Cannavale, Dallas Roberts
  • Personal History of David Copperfield - Ben Whishaw, Peter Capaldi, Hugh Laurie, Benedict Wong, and Aneurin Barnard
  • The Report - Corey Stoll, Jon Hamm
  • Untitled Roger Aisles Project - Malcolm McDowell, Mark Duplass, Rob Delaney,

Moved to 2020 OR looking more likely to be moved to 2020

  • Untitled Todd Haynes - Tim Robbins, Bill Pullman, Victor Garber, Bill Camp
  • Last Thing He Wanted - Willem Dafoe
  • Woman in the Window - Bryan Tyree Henry, Gary Oldman, Wyatt Russell, Anthony Mackie
  • Nomadland - David Strathairn