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Marriage Story Review

"They're saying this is for Adam Driver what Kramer vs Kramer was for Dustin Hoffman. More about him than about her.  Scarlett, to me, is the open question. By now it's Driver vs Phoenix for best actor." - Melchiades - Andrew

"Mini-shutout to Alda, whom I loved and thought did absolute wonders in his what, 3 or 4 scenes. Great review!" -Alex

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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

SEPT 30th PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction

We hate to predict so many category fraud people but that's how Oscar has been doing for the past 20 years. Hanks & Pitt & Hopkins & Dafoe are all (arguably) leading men who are headed towards supporting. Some of them will be successful. 

 

Willem Dafoe

63 yrs old | 4 nominations
THE LIGHTHOUSE
Release TBA

*Total Category Fraud*

He's on a career roll at the moment and is all kinds of showy and awardable in this surreal two-hander set in the early 1900s.

Brad Pitt
55 years old | 3 noms *in acting
ONCE UPON A TIME...
July 26th

*Borderline Lead*

 People love him in the movie - a true star turn - but it's not the type of role that he could be nominated in lead for so they've opted for supporting. The nomination is likely but a win will be a tougher.

Alan Alda
83 years old | 1 nomination
MARRIAGE STORY

 He's so likeable and entertaining as a less than ferocious divorce attorney in this great film that will surely appeal to the acting branch. He's been nominated for less!

Tom Hanks
62 years old | 5 noms | 2 wins
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN...
Nov 22nd

*Borderline Lead*

 Playing the TV star Fred Rogers, an icon of goodness and thus right in Hanks wheelhouse. Even though his screen time is limited the whole movie revolves around him.

 

 

Al Pacino
78 years old | 8 noms | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN
Release TBA

 He's playing real life infamous union leader Jimmy Hoffa presumably slain in '75 (his body has never been found) and he pops in the trailer. Plus goodwill from Once Upon a Tim in Hollywood. Comeback nom after 27 years away?

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Sterling K Brown

43 yrs old | never nominated
WAVES

 

 If Waves shows up in Best Picture, he could well come with it as a prestigious TV actor making good in a feature. He's won strong reviews as the patriarch in this family drama.

 

Joe Pesci
76 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN 
Release tba

  Real life character and Oscar history. Both of his nominations (and his win) come from Scorsese pictures. He'd also have a comeback narrative. But there is internal competition.

Tracy Letts
53 years old | 
never nominated
FORD V FERRARI
Nov 15th

Real life character and fun performance. Letts is a national treasure but Oscar hasn't realized it yet. And this category now prefers leading men which works against the characters actors the category was designed for.

Anthony Hopkins
81 yrs old | 4 noms | 1 win
THE TWO POPES
Release TBA

 Oscar loves actors as real life famous characters. He plays Pope Benedict. They might prefer Pryce or they could become a package deal. We shall see.

Taika Waititi
yrs old | never nominated in acting
JOJO RABBIT

 Though Oscar is often dinged for not liking comedies the place they like it best is in the supporting acting categories. His absurdist take on Hitler could win some votes. Unless they feel Director/Picture is enough

 

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...
  • Labeouf / Hedges -Honey Boy
  • Turturro -Gloria Bell
  • Harrison Jr / Hedges - Waves
  • Majors - Last Black Man
  • Banderas/ Oldman - Laundromat
  • Robbins - Dark Waters

John Lithgow

73 years old | 2 nominations
BOMBSHELL
Dec 20th

 Real life character. He's playing Roger Aisles in this sexual harassment drama which is a showy part. But the nature of the role could be too off-putting and not in a fun 'love-to-hate' kind of way.

Jamie Foxx
51 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
JUST MERCY 
Dec 25th

  Real life character and provocative story but Christmas is a late date this year given the rushed season and reviews for the film haven't been raves.

Aldis Hodge
32 years old | never nominated
CLEMENCY 
Dec 27th 

He's playing a death row inmate and has won fine reviews. The problem could well be the release date (that's very late -particulary this year)

Ray Liotta
64 yrs old | never nominated
MARRIAGE STORY

 

 If the acting branch really goes wild for Marriage Story, they could show up in every category... and he could be a surprise in a Jacki Weaver kind of way for a small amusing part.