Supporting Actor - The Film Experience

85th Oscars. Oscar Race for the Films of 2012
Predictions for entertainment / discussion purposes only. The supporting categories are notoriously hard to predict without knowing which films will reign. Coattails you know.

*The Gods of the Race?*

Leonardo DiCaprio 3 nominations DJANGO UNCHAINED Why? Oscar loves a showy villain in this category. But... It's usually tough to know who will be the standout in a QT film before seeing it. He writes so many memorable characters!	Tom Courtenay 2 nominations QUARTET Why? This story of retired opera singers could be a huge hit with actors so this is a mere guess that his role is good. But... Maggie Smith might soak up all the attention... as she is prone to do.	Russell Crowe 3 noms \| 1 win LES MISERABLES Why? Oscar once loved him and his return to prestige fare could bode well... especially since he's not the lead and will look more humble as a result. But... Will he sing this to rock-like?	Woody Harrelson 2 nominations SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS Why? There's already buzz that his ruthless mob boss who is obsessed with his kidnapped doggie is a memorable role. Rampart might make a fine critical lead in and McDonagh writes great dialogue. But... Dark comedies aren't really their thing.	Joaquin Phoenix 2 nominations THE MASTER Why? Joaquin scores when he's working off other major stars (Reese & Russell in the past). Will his duet with Hoffman work? But... Very little is known about this movie so who knows which roles are great. This is just the biggest one outside of the title character.
*Threats to the Crown*

Tommy Lee Jones 3 noms \| 1 win LINCOLN Why? Oscar is fond of him and as crazy as it sounds Josh Brolin's terrific-looking impersonation of him in Men in Black III could start a Lee Jones love in. But... Could just be the DDL show.	Christoph Waltz 1 nom \| 1 win DJANGO UNCHAINED Why? He was the undisputed MVP of Inglourious Basterds and QT probably gave him a great role again as Django's mentor. But... Oscar prefers villains in this category.	George Clooney 4 noms & 1 win for acting GRAVITY Why? As Sandra's only link to life in outerspace, this could be a fine duet. But... Last time Clooney went all existential in space, people turned up their noses (Solaris)	Billy Connolly never nominated QUARTET Why? We don't know what the individual roles are like but if Dustin Hoffman is great with his actors and the roles are juicy enough... But... Internal competition.	Jared Harris never nominated LINCOLN Why? Playing famous historical figures is usually a good route to awards love. But... will Ulysses S Grant play a large role in this screenplay.
Wild Cards?

David Straitharn 1 nomination LINCOLN Why? Word is he has the second best role in the movie but nobody has seen the movie so we'll see. Can anyone pull any focus from DDL. But... Usually only supporting actresses get nominated if DDL is the star.	Tobey Maguire never nominated THE GREAT GATSBY Why? Oscar loves a lead in this category and given that the Nick Carraway character is the observer I'm guessing he goes supporting. But... Who knows which actor will be the standout.	Justin Timberlake never nominated THE TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE Why? He's continuing to push for movie stardom and playing opposite Eastwood and Adams could help him shine. But... If The Social Network's showy part didn't excite people about his acting...	Bryan Cranston never nominated ARGO Why? He is on a roll with Breaking Bad and good roles in movies, too. It's a great point in his career for a killer role. But... this is a multi-man ensemble and we don't know who will pull focus.	Samuel L Jackson 1 nomination DJANGO UNCHAINED Why? He's a Tarantino regular and Tarantino tends to reward them. But... the film might be hard for Oscar to swallow. And it's not like Jackson has any Oscar momentum at this point in his 'give me every franchise!' career.
It's Foolish To Predict in April. Anything Can Happen!
Other Key Supporting Roles (How Big/Good are the Roles/Performances?) <--- ANNA KARENINA -Jude Law & Aaron Johnson & Domnhall Gleeson NOT FADE AWAY - James Gandolfini & others INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS - Oscar Isaac (if he's supporting -- or demoted as such) and others LINCOLN - David Straithairn HYDE PARK ON HUDSON Samuel West A SONG FOR MARION Christopher Eccleston TOM HARDY IN GENERAL Lawless & The Dark Knight Rises EFFIE Greg Wise THE HOBBIT Sir Ian McKellen THE SILVER LINING PLAYBOOK Robert DeNiro SAVAGES Benicio Del Toro LOW LIFE Jeremy Renner & Joaquin Phoenix A ROYAL AFFAIR Mikkel Boe Følsgaard MAGIC MIKE Matthew McConaughey (what? it could be the perfect role for him) ARGO John Goodman, Alan Arkin, Victor Garber, etcetera ZERO DARK THIRTY everyone THE MASTER Jesse Plemons, Rami Malek, etcetera... IMOGENE Matt Dillon & Darren Criss WHAT MAISIE KNEW Alexander Skarsgard KILLING THEM SOFTLY Garrett Dillahunt, James Gandolfini, and many more... THE GREAT GATSBY Joel Edgerton GANGSTER SQUAD everyone -- competing information about Sean Penn & Ryan Gosling as the lead... which means they're probably both leads which means that one of them will campaign supporting if the movie is a critical hit.