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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

DEC 25TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predictions

Officially this is a nail-biter with at least seven women still going strong and three more still conceivable as last minute surges or sentimental choices.

 

Allison Janney

57 yrs old | 61 films
never nominated
I, TONYA
Dec 8th

Role: The abusive mother of an Olympic hopeful comments from the sidelines 

Wins: --
Noms: Spirit Globe Critics Choice SAG

 

She was all the talk of TIFF after this film's premiere. A big broad nasty but hilarious evil mom role. She's a sure thing for a nomination but can she beat Metcalf to the gold?

 

Laurie Metcalf

62 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
LADY BIRD 
Nov 3rd

Role: A much put-upon mother tries to keep it together while her daughter works her last nerves

Wins:NBR LAFCA 

Noms: Spirit Globe Critics Choice SAG

 

She's coming off a Tony win and she's got years of respect among actors. The reviews are great for her star turn as Saoirse Ronan's mother in Greta Gerwig's directorial debut and in some ways it's nearly a co-lead.

Mary J Blige
46 yrs old | 5 films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
Nov 17th

Role: The mother of a farmhand leaves her own children to work for her landlady

Wins: Spirit (Ensemble)
Noms: Gotham Globe
 Critics Choice SAG

Though this category likes leading ladies more than true supporting characters, reviews and precursors were totally kind to her and she is memorable in the film. The campaign righly foregrounded her as the best shot at a major nomination.

Holly Hunter
59 yrs old | 38 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THE BIG SICK
June 23rd

Role: A mother races to her daughter's side when she goes into a coma... and has issues with her new boyfriend

Wins: --
Noms: Spirit Critics Choice  SAG

She's the heart and soul of this sleeper hit as a hilariously pissed off but tremendously loving wife and mother. The big question is whether the early release might hinder her. You never know when they'll be forgetful.

Hong Chau
??? yrs old | 2 films |never nominated
DOWNSIZING
Dec 22nd

Role: A Vietnamese activist , shrunken against her, becomes involved with a lost American man

Wins: --
Noms: Globe Critics Choice  SAG

She's won MVP reviews and the characters is quite a "character". She's been working a lot (Big Little Lies, Treme, Inherent Vice) which helps with goodwill. But the movie is divisive and Oscar is sadly historically reluctant about honoring Asian actors

 
Tier 2 -Possible Spoilers

Tiffany Haddish

37 yrs old | 12 films | never nominated
GIRLS TRIP
July 21st

Role: a promiscuous party girl tries to help her best friends out of their funks to live it up in New Orleans

Wins: NYFCC 
Noms: Critics Choice

The breakout player of a raunchy comic hit. Hey, it worked for Melissa McCarthy. But will the Academy take this film seriously enough? She missed the Globes and the SAG nominations.. but people are still talking about her.

Octavia Spencer

47 yrs old | 65 films | 2 noms | 1 win
SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

Role: A  protective cleaning lady tries to shield her mute co-worker from the dangers of her romantic impulses

Wins: --
Noms: Globe Critics Choice

Is she the Thelma Ritter of her generation? She sure is reliable at warming up a film and giving it some salt of the earth comedy, too. But the miss at the SAG ensemble nominations suggests that actors might not love this film quite enough for a nomination in a combative category

Lesley Manville
61 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
PHANTOM THREAD
Dec 25th

Role: The sister of a famous fashion designer.

Wins: --
Noms: --

She's a tremendous actor and people love her in this picture (no surprise) but Oscar has snubbed her before for amazing turns (Topsy Turvy, Another Year). It's tough to rev up quick with a late year release.

Kristin Scott Thomas

57 yrs old | 61 films | 1 nomination
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

Role: The wife of a Prime Minister helps him through a difficult transition during World War II

Wins: --
Noms: -- 

This is the quintessential "supportive wife" role ... but hey, Oscar ♥︎s those. And she brings poise, wit, grace, and warmth to an otherwise masculine movie. Best Picture heat counts for a lot in supporting...and the film is losing that.

Lois Smith
87 yrs old | 49 films | never nominated
MARJORIE PRIME
Aug 18th

Role: An old woman falls in love with the holographic projection of her dead husband.

Wins: --
Noms: Gotham

Reprising a role that won her kudos on stage Smith has won some of the most attention she's ever had for her long and wonderful character actress career. She's been working the campaign circuit. Can she be a surprise nominee for a little indie?

 

 

Vote Siphoning from these other supporting ladies of 2017

  • Pfeiffer - mother!
  • Leo - Novitiate
  • Walters - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
  • Roberts - The Wonder
  • Richardson - Stronger
  • Dunst - The Beguiled
  • Keener - Get Out
  • Maslany - Stronger
  • Kazan -The Big Sick