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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

Tier 1 - Prediction

A lineup of previous nominees plus one newbie... how does this look for you?

Naomi Watts
(2 nominations)
THE GLASS CASTLE
tba

This dysfunctional mom in a memoir piece might be exactly what she needs to return

Kristin Scott Thomas
(1 nomination)
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

We miss her. It's a prestige pic. And that 1 nomination stat has got to go, hasn't it?

Julianne Moore
(5 noms | 1 win)
WONDERSTRUCK
tba

Playing two roles for the director that helped shaped her initial prestige. Yes please.

Melissa Leo
(2 noms | 1 win)
THE NOVITIATE
tba

She won stellar reviews for this strict nun role. But will it get good distribution and a strong campaign? 

Rebecca Ferguson
(never nominated)
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
Dec 25th

Michelle Williams feels like too easy call (as Barnum's wife) so we're going with Ferguson as the opera diva he helps make famous

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Julia Roberts
(4 noms | 1 win)
THE WONDER
Nov 17th 

Oscar loves a fierce mama and if the film hits, she's got a good shot.

Michelle Williams
(4 noms)
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
Dec 25th

Does she have a great song? A substantial arc? Or is this just the Jackman show? And 5 nominations is quite a threshold. Can she really get there so young?

Catherine Keener
(2 nominations)
GET OUT
Feb 24th

If the film resurges as a viable Best Picture candidate she could easily be its not-actually-so surprising acting rep. Memorable and Oscar likes a villain.

Nicole Kidman
(4 noms | 1 win)
THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER
Nov 3rd

If Big Little Lies Kidmania is still in effect a year from now (people have a way of turning on her) she could finally nab her fifth nod

Michelle Pfeiffer
(3 nominations)
MOTHER!
Oct 13th

Though you know we'd love to predict her in truth we know nothing about her role in this secretive movie. We hope she's the title character of course.

 
Tier 3 - Could be Contenders

Lesley Manville
(never nominated)
UNTITLED PTA
Dec 25th

She's a tremendous actor but what's her role like? Oscar has snubbed her for amazing turns before (Topsy Turvy, Another Year)

Betty Gabriel
(never nominated)
GET OUT
Feb 24th

She deserves a big campaign but stylized performances -- even ones perfectly in service to their films need critical support.

Margot Robbie
(never nominated)
GOODBYE CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
Nov 10th

If the film has Best Picture heat, she's quite hot right now and could deliver. 

Mary J Blige
(never nominated)
MUDBOUND
tba

Though a small role in a category that likes leading ladies more than true supporting ones, reviews were kind to her 

Tatiana Maslany
(never nominated)
STRONGER
Sept 22nd

Longsuffering girlfriend of suffering protagonist? If this movie is resonant, perhaps Emmy love transfers to Oscar love?

 
Tier 4- But it's too early to rule any of these out

Andrea Riseborough
(never nominated)
BATTLE OF THE SEXES
Sept 22nd

Playing Emma Stone's lover in this true tennis story. Such a good actress. Hope the part is worthy of her. 

Emily Watson
(2 nominations)
ON CHESIL BEACH
tba

We presume she's Saoirse Ronan's mother in this. Will the role be a good size?

Judi Dench
(7 noms | 1 win)
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
Nov 22nd

It's hard to imagine the film being as popular with Oscar as the original but they love them some Dench

Michelle Pfeiffer
(3 nominations)
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
Nov 22nd

It all depends on a) whether they like the film and b) which cast member gets singled out

Rebecca Ferguson
(never nominated)
THE SNOWMAN
Oct 13th

Playing Harry Hole's co-worker. Will the movie be as good as its assembled team suggests?

 
Tier 5 - This early anything is possible

Middleton or Waterston - THE CURRENT WAR
Krieps - UNTITLED PTA
Davis - TULLY
Dunst or Fanning - THE BEGUILED
Fanning or Kidman - HOW TO TALK TO GIRLS AT PARTIES
Redgrave or Walters - FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
Buckley - SPLIT 
Temple - WONDER WHEEL 
Cruz or Ridley - MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS 
Spencer - THE SHAPE OF WATER