by Nathaniel R
The SAG nominating committe has to turn in their ballots tomorrow (Sunday, December 10th) and we're naturally very curious as to how their votes turned out. We'll find out this coming Wednesday. The bulk of the nominees are usually the obvious set who are carrying a ton of buzz. But that's just the bulk. SAG has been known to throw at least one total wildcard into the mix (remember Naomi Watts for St Vincent, 2014, or Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back, 2015, or Hustle & Flow for ensemble in 2005?).
Let's take a look at the truly competitive Outstanding Ensemble category...
The Screen Actors Guild has a lot to choose from but will they choose well, and what does choosing well actually entail? To my way of thinking Ensemble prizes should go to movies wherein a somewhat large cast interacts a lot and who all feel like they're in the same movie tonally (unless, for narrative or stylistic reasons one should stand out). But most people seem to view ensemble in more generic terms like "big cast!" as the sole requirement or "cast chemistry" as another entirely subjective most important factor. And there are exceptions to every rule. I dont tend to think of films with 4 people as Ensemble films but like Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf is the definition of ensemble brilliance (the key difference perhaps being that the whole cast is interacting frequently as opposed to exchanging focus)
Before we begin predicting we should note that Oscar's Best Picture category and SAG's Outstanding Ensemble prizes are not technically correlative, as much as the media wants them to be. The quality of an overall movie and the quality of ensemble acting within it are two very different things. While a great cast never hurts a movie you don't need an "ensemble" in the traditional sense to make a quality movie; plenty of great movies have teensy-tiny casts or survive a cast that aren't all firing at the same level. Last year people bizarrely thought that SAG voters didnt like La La Land, due to its miss in the ensemble category but it was, in essence, a duet film. Duets are not ensembles. I would even argue that trios are not ensembles (sorry Call Me By Your Name). Better to just nominate the individuals and leave it at that. It's beyond silly when they give a nomination for Ensemble to something like Million Dollar Baby and then also nominate each player individually.
Let's look at the possible nominees this year...
BIG CASTS
Dunkirk (Dark Horse)
Mudbound (Probable)
The Post (Lock)
These three are all true "ensemble pictures" in that no character truly owns the movie even if one or two are often foregrounded. The entire casts here are the key to each film's success. Mudbound has already won ensemble prizes and feels like a safe bet with SAG due to its generous spread-the-wealth scene structure. The Post isn't as generous to its various players in that they dont each get their own narrative or point of view. The fame level of its ensemble should still make it a slam dunk here, though, even if many of the stars are basically doing glorified cameos (like Sarah Paulson as Tom Hanks's wife). Dunkirk has some big names in the cast (like Tom Hardy and Kenneth Branagh) and it might show up but our suspicion is that the emphasis on the less famous actors in the main storyline on the beach will be a hurdle for big-star-loving SAG voters.
BEST PICTURE HEAT = ENSEMBLE HEAT
Darkest Hour (Dark Horse)
Lady Bird (Maybe)
Get Out (Dark Horse)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (Maybe)
Shape of Water (Maybe)
Here's where it gets REALLY tricky. If Mudbound and The Post are in -- and most people think they will be -- there are only three more spots so all of the Best Picture hopefuls with a large cast with a clear shot at this can't make it in. Though Darkest Hour features a ton of strong actors in roles of various sizes its not-so-stealth function as a giant FYC ad for Gary Oldman's Best Actor nomination might well sink it here. On the other hand SAG does like big British casts (see their Downton Abbey obsession). The strength of the lead player might also be a problem for Three Billboards but on the other hand it's a large enough group of well liked actors that maybe the the focus on McDormand won't be trouble?
Lady Bird is in a possibly similar bind. Everyone agrees that Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf are spectacular but they'll get their own individual nominations. Will SAG voters be discerning enough to see how rich and deep this film's bench of supporting players go? It's tough to know but I fear it might be the "most deserving that's left out" film when they announced the SAG prizes. Get Out's hindrance might be its genre as actors are, for reasons we've never been able to fathom, less enthralled with performances that have to meet the very specific tone of distinct genres (beyond drama and comedy). But love for the movie could still help that wonderful cast get into the mix. The Shape of Water is probably the best bit here. While it is also a genre film and its key players are likely to get their own individual nominations, every actor is relatively famous and it's actorly in some key ways (colorful and meaty character types)
THE WILD CARDS (all dark horses)
Battle of the Sexes
Call Me By Your Name
Detroit
The Florida Project
I, Tonya
The Big Sick
None of those six films have stopped campaigning though two of them seem to have vanished in the precursor awards (though it's not unlike SAG to throw a huge curveball). Had Battle of the Sexes been a bigger hit it would surely be a threat for this prize given a name cast and lots of fun little parts. The Florida Project has the "total unknowns" problem with (most) of its cast despite the film's richness. The Big Sick would be an interesting (and I don't think impossible) nominee though it seems destined for less high profile nominations. Call Me By Your Name obviously doesn't need an ensemble nomination given its super tight focus on 2 people (3 if you're feeling generous) but if it manages one we'll all know that it's a very formidable threat for Best Picture. Of these six I think I Tonya is actually most likely to rock SAG's boat because one of the arguable tricks of getting a ensemble nomination is being a film that actors WISH they had been in because it looks like so much fun.
MAINSTREAM HITS (extreme long shots)
Baby Driver
Girls Trip
Murder on the Orient Express
Wonder Woman
Blockbusters rarely compete here but in their own particular ways none of these films would be a terrible option for an ensemble prize OR terribly shocking had the reviews been a little better (Murder) given either the quality of the chemistry among the cast members or the names involved or some clearly defined fun performances. Some time ago we might have said that Baby Driver was most likely as a shocker option but nobody in Hollywood will be in the mood to throw a nomination Kevin Spacey's way this winter.
PREDICTION
(in order of confidence)
The Post
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
alternates:
Get Out
I Tonya
Which five do you think will make it?