by Nathaniel R
Perhaps you've heard that both A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody will being competing as Dramas rather than Musicals at the Globes. That's a fairly shocking move since dramatic biopics about musicians generally campaign as "Musical or Comedy" -- think Walk the Line, Ray, Beyond the Sea, Coal Miner's Daughter. Presumably Warner Bros has bought into the stigma that "Comedy or Musical" is the lesser category which is really unfortunate because it's one of the best things about the Globes. The Comedy or Musical prizes are filled with great stuff that Oscar SHOULD have recognized throughout the years.
The Globes really ought to have consistency with who they allow to compete where but since they don't, it's a savvy move on Warner Bros part especially in the field of 'Best Actress, Drama' where Glenn Close's campaign probably felt that the win was all but locked up until Lady Gaga (already a Globe favorite) muscled in. Glenn Close has won two Globes herself so it's not like the Globes don't like her but it's worrying that the Globes have only given her prizes for her TV work. Like Oscar they went in other directions every time she was up for movie roles during her highly popular 1980s run. As for Bohemian Rhapsody it's a strange choice since Rami Malek will probably have a tougher time breaking into Best Actor, Drama...
That said both campaign moves are kind of suspect considering the musical performances. I'm sure there are other examples but the only instance I can think of in recent years when a Dramatic Musical opted to compete as a Drama rather than a Musical at the Globes was Dancer in the Dark (2000). In that case, you could argue that the ploy backfired since the film missed a Best Picture nod that might have been an easier get and Björk lost Best Actress to the Oscar-frontrunner Julia Roberts when she might have won in the Comedy or Musical field which worked out like so:
Renée Zellweger was marvelous in Nurse Betty (yes, you heard me. I didn't always scrunch my face up at her successes) but the film had no other nominations so she was probably beatable.
SO WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE THE COMEDY / MUSICAL CATEGORY? LET'S DISCUSS
Best Picture, Musical or Comedy
probably locked up as nominations go
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
THE FAVOURITE
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
distinct possibilities
EIGHTH GRADE
MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN (will they go for it again given the absence of Meryl?)
OCEANS 8
TULLY (please please please)
prominent comedies released this year but not all of them will get campaigns
A SIMPLE FAVOR (pretty please!)
PADDINGTON 2
LOVE SIMON
GAME NIGHT
BOOK CLUB
I FEEL PRETTY (so much better than it got credit for being)
THE HAPPYTIME MURDERS
LIFE OF THE PARTY
SORRY TO BOTHER YOU
After the Martian debacle in 2016, the Globes stated that dramas with comedic undertones should henceforth be placed in drama but then last year Get Out was placed in comedy without the Globes protesting (though some fans were miffed). So what about these movies which one could argue have elements of both -- where will they ask to be placed? Studios have until October 31st to make their requests but in the end the Globes, like the Oscars, can reject campaign wishes if they so choose (unlike SAG which always follows studio submissions for placements).
GREEN BOOK - they haven't decided on their campaign
VICE - they haven't decided on their campaign
Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
surely locked up / competing for the win with Gaga out of the way
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Emma Stone, The Favourite
distinct possibilities
Blake Lively, A Simple Favor -if they choose to vote for her in lead
Anna Kendrick, A Simple Favor
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Olivia Colman, The Favourite -if they choose to vote for her in lead
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Lily James, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Amanda Seyfried, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Sandra Bullock, Oceans 8
Charlize Theron, Tully - this would be a huge get for a wildly underrated film. We hope they push because she's worthy
will they campaign her?
Joanna Kulig, Cold War -- if we were the Cold War strategists we'd be pushing hard for this placement since the film can't compete for one of the Picture prizes (due to being a foreign language film) but the actors can. It's a tragic story but also a musical.
longshots
Rachel McAdams, Game Night
Amy Schumer, I Feel Pretty
Jane Fonda, Book Club
Diane Keaton, Book Club
Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
This category is so empty that it seems insane, or at least very 'they forgot to hire an awards consultant' ill advised that 20th Century Fox is giving up an easy Rami Malek nomination for Bohemian Rhapsody.
probably locked up as nominations go
none
locked up if submitted in this category
Christian Bale - Vice if submitted in this category though we suspect they'll go drama
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book if he's submitted in this category, which we suspect he will be
distinct possibilities
Robert Redford - Old Man and the Gun - we'd say locked up but he's not exactly a schmoozer and the HFPA loves schmoozers
Henry Golding - Crazy Rich Asians
Lakeith Stanfield - Sorry to Bother You
Mahershala Ali - Green Book - if they ignore the 'supporting' campaign and it's submitted for comedy
long shots
Jason Bateman - Game Night
Nick Robinson - Love Simon
Mark Wahlberg - Instant Family
Paul Rudd - Ant Man and the Wasp
John C Reilly - Holmes & Watson
Will Ferrrel - Holmes & Watson
John C Reilly - Stan & Ollie
Steve Coogan -Stan & Ollie
Ryan Reynolds - Deadpool 2