by Nathaniel R
The National Board of Review will reveal their winners later today. They're much harder to predict than other high profile awards bodies because their organization is secretive and untelevised. That said, there are some patterns that have emerged over the years. Though there are rumors that The Mule did not screen for them, for example, it's otherwise a foregone conclusion that if there is a Clint Eastwood film available to them in any way, they WILL honor it and often in a major way. The last Clint Eastwood film they skipped from honoring in any way was Jersey Boys (2014) but that was an exception to the rule. Since Mystic River they've otherwise always given his movies something, even the ones that don't have significant awards futures like The Hereafter (top ten list) or Gran Torino (Best Actor AND Screenplay) or Flags Of Our Fathers (top ten list), or the ones that nobody is all that passionate about but have awards appeal in some way like Invictus (Best Director AND Best Actor). So I'm expecting The Mule or even The 15:17 to Paris to show up, as absurd as the latter sounds.
Another very safe NBR bet is that they'll choose as Best Picture something that has either just opened in limited release or is yet to open...
Cynically you might say that this is a better way for them to get headlines. Less cynically you might say that they just have a very short attention span. They almost always announce in late November or early December and of the past twelve years of winners only two have been in wide release before the announcement (The Social Network and Mad Max Fury Road) which is why I wouldn't personally predict anything released before Thanksgiving.
Some other patterns: they've never awarded Glenn Close (in supporting or lead) so I wouldn't bank on an honor for The Wife; they've mostly ignored Spike Lee movies so I wouldn't bank on BlacKkKlansman. So here are some silly predictions (allowing myself three options in each category):
I'd be very surprised if they don't honor VICE since it hits all their buttons (Oscar friendly, not yet released, big stars)
FILM The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, or Vice
DIRECTOR Clint Eastwood, Adam McKay, or Alfonso Cuaron
ACTRESS Emily Blunt, Saoirse Ronan, or Nicole Kidman
ACTOR Clint Eastwood, Christian Bale, or Viggo Mortensen
SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams, Regina King, or Natalie Portman
SUPPORTING ACTOR Richard E Grant, Timothee Chalamet, or Mahershala Ali
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE (They often cite two people here so I'm giving myself 7 options): Thomasin McKenzie, Yalitza Aparicio, Amandla Stenberg, Cynthia Erivo, Henry Golding, and/or Elsie Fisher
WILL THERE BE ANY UNEXPECTED NOTES IN THEIR "TOP TEN"? Of course there will. Though it's hard to know which title or titles that might be. Of the unlikely prospects that seem most "NBR" I'd be looking out for one or even two from this list to pop in to the otherwise Best Picture Prediction friendly field with a "surprise, bitches!" smirk: Destroyer, Stan & Ollie, Old Man & the Gun, Welcome to Marwen, The Mule, Mary Queen of Scots, A Quiet Place, 15:17 to Paris, or Bohemian Rhapsody
WHAT ARE YOU FEELING ABOUT THEIR IMPENDING ANNOUNCEMENT?