Resurfacing on the ballot from two years ago after a season off the air, we have one sure thing. Even if his show falters and misses the top category (as we’re predicting it will), David Harbour (Stranger Things) is in. I don’t think that’s necessarily true for Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale) or Mandy Patinkin (Homeland), who don’t have much buzz despite still being well-regarded. Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid’s Tale), who picked up a guest acting trophy for the “hanging episodes” of his show that aired last summer (when the show was otherwise ineligible), is a much better bet now that he’s considered a supporting member of the cast.

Two shows that took last season off that could stage a return to the race are The Crown and Westworld, albeit for different actors. Season three of The Crown has a whole new cast as the show jumps ahead in time, and, provided he’s placed in supporting, Josh O’Connor is a good bet for his portrayal of Prince Charles. It’s hard to know who from Westworld will be classified in this race – at this point, I’d bet new cast member and Emmy favorite Aaron Paul will be, while past nominee Jeffrey Wright, last nominated in the lead acting race, will remain there instead. It’s also worth mentioning Alexander Skarsgard (Big Little Lies), who won the supporting actor prize in the limited series or TV movie race in 2017 and who may now contend for a reduced role in season two (but I wouldn’t count on it).

New to the Field?
To map out the rest of the competition, let’s look at returning shows with actors who haven’t previously been nominated. Succession made it into the Best Drama Series race last year without any of its cast cited, and two-time Golden Globe nominee Kieran Culkin seems like the best bet, with Matthew Macfadyen also possible. The only member of the Pearson immediate family to not have been nominated, Justin Hartley (This Is Us) might finally break through this year after two Critics Choice nominations, and there’s a slight possibility his costar Asante Blackk, also cited by the Critics Choice Association, could get in, but I think he’ll fare better in the guest category. Tom Pelphrey (Ozark) is another new contender from a returning show.

There are a couple actors from new shows to consider also. At the top of the list is Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), who was nominated by SAG and won the Critics Choice prize. Steve Carell (The Morning Show) was also on the SAG list, and I think he’ll get nominated if he’s placed in this race rather than the lead one. Jason Bateman (The Outsider), an expected inclusion in the lead acting race, might end up as a double acting nominee.