The Film Experience

Will HBO or Netflix reign on Emmy night?

This year’s Best Drama slate includes seven past nominees and one freshman series. There are heavy hitters but also major omissions like Big Little Lies, The Morning Show, and This Is Us in favor of shows that didn’t consistently show up across categories. To me, Succession, which I’m predicting will win lead actor, supporting actress, guest actress, and writing, seems like the safe frontrunner, like Game of Thrones was last year. But are we missing another show that could win it instead?

I’ll try to avoid major plot details in my analysis – but if you’d like more spoiler-filled descriptions, click on the episode titles. Let’s consider each nominee…

Better Call Saul (AMC, 7 nominations)
This is the fifth nomination for this New Mexico-set law drama, which took the 2017-2018 season off. Season five edges this show’s storyline closer to its drug cartel roots from Breaking Bad while distinctly remaining its own separate show, which is not an easy feat. Before nominations were announced, I thought this show could pull off a win, but then stars Bob Odenkirk (Jimmy) and Jonathan Banks (Mike), who earned nominations for the first four seasons, were snubbed. The earliest of the six submitted episodes, “The Guy for This,” features a callback to Breaking Bad and sets up the arc that dominates the final five episodes, which serve as the other choices. “Wexler v. Goodman” and “JMM” are strong spotlights of the relationship between Jimmy and Kim, while “Bagman,” “Bad Choice Road,” and “Unforgivable” are a powerful trio of extremely intense hours to close out the season (two of which are up for writing). Assuming its cast – including never-nominated MVP Rhea Seehorn (Kim) – are indeed nominated next year, this show will have a better shot at winning for its sixth and final season.

The Crown (Netflix, 13 nominations)
This is the third nomination for the regal series, which returns after taking last season off with an entirely new cast playing older versions of the characters. Each installment of this show feels like a history movie, and there’s such a clear investment both in staging that history and creating compelling characters that really are cinematic in nature. Though it matched the total number of nominations it received for season one and season two, Tobias Menzies (Prince Philip) and Josh O’Connor (Prince Charles), who I would personally award the lead actor and supporting actor trophies this year, weren’t nominated. They each anchor one of the submitted episodes – “Moondust” and “Tywysog Cymru,” respectively – in a formidable manner, and, coupled with the entertaining “Margaretology” and the gut punch of “Aberfan,” this is a terrific slate representing some of the best television of the season. “Bubbikins,” which brings in Prince Philip’s mother, is another solid hour, though I wasn’t as fond of the season finale, “Cri de Coeur.” This show did win the SAG Award for Best Ensemble in a Drama Series back in January, but I think acting trophies for the stars who were nominated – Olivia Colman (Queen Elizabeth) and Helena Bonham Carter (Princess Margaret) – are likelier than a victory here.

The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu, 10 nominations)
Now here’s a bit of a head-scratcher. This show, which won this prize for season one, was able to compete last season for three “hanging” (the technical term, but probably not one we should use with this show) episodes from season two that aired late and earned eleven nominations. Now, for its third season, which was comprised of thirteen episodes, it netted only ten nominations. The most concerning snub is that of star Elisabeth Moss (June), who won for season one, and past winner Ann Dowd (Aunt Lydia) is also missing from her category. While season three wasn’t as strong as the first two years of this show, it is still a disturbing, prescient, and important show. “Unknown Caller” and “Household,” from the middle of the season, deal with Gilead’s relations with Canada and the larger world, while “Unfit” and “Heroic” zero in more of the intimate experiences of June and the other handmaids. The final two episodes of the season, “Sacrifice” and “Mayday,” have the biggest emotional payoff and serve as the best showcase of why this show is still relevant. A win this year just isn’t going to happen, but I’m glad this show hasn’t been forgotten like it was at the Golden Globes.

Killing Eve (BBC America, 8 nominations)
After just two bids for season one, this show performed impressively with nine nominations for season two. Despite plenty of competition and lower buzz, season three returned in most categories, including repeat citations for stars Jodie Comer (Villanelle), Sandra Oh (Eve), and Fiona Shaw (Carolyn). I’ve never loved this show and would argue that, overall, all three seasons are all about equal to one another in quality, with some high points. My favorite episode of the season, “Management Sucks,” was one of two out of a total eight installments not chosen as this show’s submissions, which is puzzling. “Meetings Have Biscuits” was a solid start, while the next three episodes, “Still Got It,” “Are You From Pinner,” and “End of Game,” were too focused on all the characters being away from each other. The last two episodes, “Beautiful Monster” and “Are You Leading or Am I,” made this show, which had already been renewed for a fourth season, feel increasingly directionless. This show’s nomination is its win, and it definitely doesn’t deserve to take this prize this year.

The Mandalorian (Disney Plus, 15 nominations)
This show managed two impressive feats: it’s the only freshman series nominated for either Best Drama or Comedy Series and the only series from a new streaming service to crack the top races. I, however, can’t understand why it’s here. I’m a big fan of Star Wars but didn’t see any reason to keep watching this show past the pilot, and when I want back to do so following its inclusion here, I found it to be lackluster and at most satisfactory, best compared to the disappointing Solo: A Star Wars Story. Obviously that’s not a popular opinion, but this show also netted almost entirely technical mentions, aside from one guest acting bid for Giancarlo Esposito (Moff Gideon). With only eight episodes to choose from, the submissions leave out the action-packed “Chapter 5: The Gunslinger” and “Chapter 6: The Prisoner” in favor of the expository “Chapter 1: The Mandalorian,” “Chapter 2: The Child,” and “Chapter 3: The Sin,” the more cinematic “Chapter 4: Sanctuary,” and the suspenseful two final hours of the season, “Chapter 7: The Reckoning” and “Chapter 8: Redemption.” This show evidently has a fanbase among Emmy voters that helped it get here, but I’d be shocked it if could win without clear support in the major categories.

Ozark (Netflix, 18 nominations)
Most shows earn fewer nominations each season, but not this one. After five bids for season one and nine for season two, Netflix’s dark money laundering series is now tied for the most-nominated drama of the year. I watched only the Emmy-selected episodes of the first two seasons and couldn’t understand the love for this show, but after taking time to watch all of season three, I do think that it’s improved and there is something compelling here, particularly when it comes to the performances (including the regrettably snubbed Tom Pelphrey, who plays Ben, and Janet McTeer, who plays Helen). I wouldn’t have included season premiere “Wartime” or finale “All In” in the submissions, but they’re still important, tone-setting installments. Most of the back half of the season – “Su Casa Es Mi Casa,” “In Case of Emergency,” “BFF,” and “Fire Pink” – present a strong narrative whose troubling, irreversible implications should be clear even to the casual viewer. Though I wouldn’t have included it, it’s a bit stranger that “Boss Fight,” one of three episodes up for writing this year, isn’t one of these six. This show’s two-part final fourth season has already been announced, and I’d expect it will win Drama Series by the end. It’s definitely possible that could happen this year – maybe it will if voters realize the Byrde family has more redeeming qualities than the Roys?

Stranger Things (Netflix, 8 nominations)
This science fiction/horror series netted eighteen nominations for its first season (I predicted it to win this award that year) and twelve for its second before taking last season off. This year, it lost its typical nominations for writing and directing as well as missing out on bids for stars David Harbour (Hopper) and Millie Bobby Brown (Eleven). And yet, without all that, it still managed to show up in this category. Even if it was a surprise, I’m happy about it. My journey with this show has been unlike most. I didn’t watch when it premiered because I generally avoid horror, and when I finally did, I realized that it was very strong even if it wasn't exactly my kind of show. I liked season two even more, and thought season three was just as terrific. An eight-episode season means only leaving out two episodes in submissions, and missing the mind flaying-centered second and fifth hours isn’t a big deal. I enjoyed the adventure-themed “Chapter One: Suzie, Do You Copy,” “Chapter Three: The Case of the Missing Lifeguard,” and “Chapter Four: The Sauna Test” and still remember the thrill of the action-oriented final three episodes, “Chapter Six: E Pluribus Unum,” “Chapter Seven: The Bite,” and “Chapter Eight: The Battle of Starcourt.” Don’t expect this show to win under any circumstances, but I’d love if it did.

Succession (HBO, 18 nominations)
I was dubious throughout the entire predictions process with this show because of the simple fact that it earned zero acting nominations last year for season one, netting just five bids that resulted in two wins, for writing and main title theme music. There’s no reason to be cautious anymore since this show is now tied for the most nominations for a drama series this year, and a full half of those are for acting. I watched the submitted episodes of season one and wasn’t enthralled by this show, but I do have a better sense of why people love it after screening all of season two in preparation for its inevitable inclusion here. I still don’t love everything about it, but I can appreciate its nuances and strengths. I was still wavering through the first three episodes – “The Summer Palace,” “Vaulter,” and “Hunting” - but was much more on board with the three later selections – “Tern Haven,” “DC,” and “This Is Not for Tears.” Ultimately, I just don’t see a way that this show loses after its powerhouse nominations performance.

Personal Ranking:

The Crown
Stranger Things
Better Call Saul
The Handmaid’s Tale
Succession
Ozark
Killing Eve
The Mandalorian

Predicted Winner: Succession

Potential Spoiler: Ozark

Which show are you rooting for?