by Nathaniel R
Abdul-Mateen, Shenkman, Rylance, Redmayne and Sharp in "Trial of the Chicago 7"
You've waited long enough. This is our latest ever take on the acting categories in 20 years of punditry. But you know, "2020". Consider it an all purpose hellscape excuse! Though Hollywood is still in disarray there will eventually be another Oscar ceremony. Nominations are still more than five months away (March 15th, 2021) so if this were any other year these prediction charts would essentially be the early August charts. Does that make sense? In other words, much about this Oscar season has yet to be revealed.
But let's take a stab at Best Supporting Actor since we've just screened The Trial of the Chicago 7 which is basically the kind of movie that dreams of, no fantasizes lustfully, about filling in all five spots. The most Supporting Actor nominations to have arrived from a single film is three, which happened thrice in Oscar history via On the Waterfront (1954), The Godfather (1972) and The Godfather Part Two (1974). It will probably not happen again with Chicago 7, but it theoretically could given that it's ALL supporting actors all the time. Let's rank them shall we, in terms of Oscar possibility...
RANKED BY MOST LIKELY TO...
1. Sacha Baron Cohen as Abbie Hoffman
This is a slam-dunk, on paper, as its a comic actor using his comic gifts but also going deeper than Oscar voters will be expecting so it's sort of a "comedian gets dramatic!" and "stealth attack" kind of thing and that's catnip to voters. Easy-peazy campaign angles. Plus, his is very easily arguable as the best performance in the film.
2. Eddie Redmayne as Tom Hayden
Oscar voters, like most awards voters in any organization, favor people they already know. What's more this is basically the marquee role as the defacto leader of the Chicago 7 (though they weren't ever a united front as that was just propaganda from their haters). The movie gives him the primary dramatic arc, too. Let's just say he has more than a few "clips".
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as Bobby Seale
His fresh Emmy win in a very competitive category suggests he's all the rage at the moment. This is a majorly sympathetic role (which often helps with Oscar) as a man wrongly accused twice over and he's quite good in it, even if the screenplay limits the notes he's called on to play. What's more the movie attempts, sometimes clumsily, to speak to the systemic racism in his particular situation which will help the campaign even if it might make the movie more divisive. I was tempted to put him above Redmayne but perhaps that's wishful thinking since I prefer the performance?
4. Frank Langella as Julius Hoffman
Oscar used to love this kind of role -- the authority figure / chief racist onscreen -- but that's no longer en vogue that way it once was in the days of, say, Rod Steiger or James Woods or we'd be talking about Oscar nominations for Bryce Dallas Howard in The Help or Topher Grace in BlacKKKlansman. That said, this previous nominee has plentiful screen time as the incompetent and corrupt judge. What's more, Langella could even win some sympathy votes since Anthony Hopkins got his role in the movie version of The Father (Langella won the Tony for it) and Hopkins will probably be competing for his second Best Actor Oscar whilst The Trial of Chicago 7 is trying to dominate this category.
5. Mark Rylance as William Kunstler
Previous Oscar winner and an actor who other actors worship. We told you with Bridge of Spies that his "legend of the stage" status would matter to Oscar voters. Some of you didn't believe us but it very much did on Oscar night when he won in a hotly contested contest. Actors tend to know the careers of esteemed stage superstars even if the general public doesn't. That said, part of his role is that Kunstler is a legendary lawyer but the movie skimps on showing us exactly why.
Beyond those five I'd say Oscar campaigns are iffy (in terms of possible success) though with a possible dearth of competition (who knows what will actually open this season) one can imagine scenarios in which Jeremy Strong (with a fresh Emmy win in mind) gets some support for his comic work as frequently stoned Jerry Rubin. Former nominee Michael Keaton also gets a cameo that the movie places lots of weight on.
PERSONAL FAVES (SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MOVIES TAKE TIME TO SETTLE)
- Sacha Baron Cohen
- Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt
- John Carroll Lynch
P.S. SAG "OUTSTANDING CAST" NOTE.
If The Trial of The Chicago 7 gets a SAG nomination for its ensemble, which seems likely even if Oscar buzz fades, ten actors will be included. Billing order is alphabetical:
- Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
- Sacha Baron Cohen
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt
- Michael Keaton
- Frank Langella
- John Carroll Lynch
- Eddie Redmayne
- Mark Rylance
- Alex Sharp
- Jeremy Strong
Shared Title Cards (which means they won't be SAG Nominated... and we talk about this annually because the rule is so frustrating) in billing order:
- Noah Robbins (Lee Weiner) and Danny Flaherty (John Froines) who are two of the seven titular characters
- Ben Shenkman (co-council to Rylance's lawyer), Kelvin Harrison Jr as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton (curiously for this Oscar season we might have two Fred Hamptons onscreen as Daniel Kaluuya plays him in the biopic Judas and the Black Messiah though that has no set release date yet)
- Caitlin Fitzgerald (FBI witness) and Alice Kremelberg (who works for the defendants) ... they're the only female characters with more than a line or two of dialogue.
- JC MacKenzie (co-council to Gordon-Levitt's prosecuting lawyer) and John Doman (government official)
- Wayne Duvall (witness), Damian Young (government official), C.J. Wilson (witness)
Are you excited to see this one? It "opens" on Netflix on October 16th