by Nathaniel R
Clayton Davis, Jazz Tangcay and I created this annual panel at Middleburg together (I named it!) and now we're a regular event early in the morning at the beginning of each fest. The new venue, outside in a tent, is a big improvement over our initially cozy but cramped space while the crowd is the (wonderful) same. Here are highlights from the public discussion this morning as well as the private discussions before and after the event (it all blurs together at film festivals which are so social)...
KEY POINTS
BELFAST
Best Picture (which will now be 10 films wide as it was in 2009 and 2010) is wide open as to what will be nominated. Why? Well a lot of films that have screened already or been released are still on the table with about SIX potentially major players still not having screened extensively or at all yet (Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Don't Look Up, Nightmare Alley, Being the Ricardos, and House of Gucci). Plus, voters will have to fill out all ten slots again so the chances of populist titles that need less critical support (the Blind Sides if you will) slipping in is greater again. That said, if you're a smaller more divisive title #1 votes will matter so specific passion still helps.
Belfast is the consensus frontrunner to win (at this stage). Middleburg has shown the eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture 6 of its 8 years thus far and Belfast, King Richard, Power of the Dog, Spencer are all screening this weekend so we expect it will be 7 of 9 soon.
FLEE
Everyone believes that Flee will pull off some kind of never-done-before double (Animation + either International Film or Documentary) and hopes are there that it can pull off a never-done-before triple (all three). If it pulls off only Doc and International (should Denmark submit it) that would not be a first since Honeyland accomplished that two years back.
Will Smith and Kristen Stewart are the lead acting frontrunners (disagreements abound as to who might be nominated alongside them though).
THE FUZZY STUFF -- FUN TO ARGUE ABOUT !
Belfast hopes to pull off not one but TWO double noms in the supporting categories. That hasn't happened since The Last Picture Show (1971) so know that it's exceedingly rare. Can Belfast really hog 40% of the acting nominations?
Kristen Stewart is only a soft frontrunner since we all think Jessica Chastain is formidable competition, because unlike Kristen she a) is overdue and b) really excels at press and schmoozing which are important in Oscar season especially within tight races. That said Chastain is in a weird position in that she's someone you can imagine winning if nominated or being a surprise snub.
Nobody agrees on who gives the best performance in Mass (I have personally heard all four individual actors cited when talking to people about this film) but the campaign is focused around Ann Dowd who clearly has the most awards-bodies momentum, career-wise.
CODA
Bleecker Street (Mass) and Apple (CODA) are trying and they've got quality films but does either distributor really understand the Oscar game yet?
Best Cinematography is fascinating and ridiculously competitive this year. We have four major contenders shot in black and white (Belfast, Passing, Tragedy of Macbeth, C'mon C'mon) a visual choice we know the Academy stans for, and two major contenders shot by female cinematographers (Power of the Dog, Spencer) and as you probably know only one female cinematographer has ever been nominated so two strong contenders at once is quite worthy of noting. That's six films that feel strong in the category and that's even before you get to other major possibilities from the previously nominated DPs of Dune, West Side Story, Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, Don't Look Up, House of Gucci, The Last Duel and King Richard. All that plus there's at least three more from female DPs (Zola, In the Heights, Annette) to consider.
FUZZY PT 2 -- IN THIS MORNING'S PRODUCTION NATHANIEL WILL PLAY THE ROLE OF DISSENTING VOICE
This was not intentional at all and perhaps we'll call it the LA/NYC divide (though that's an accident of location since Clayton only recently moved to LA) but I accidentally became the dissenting voice. For instance, Clayton and Jazz believe Dune is a major deserving player across the board and in Picture / Director. I'm doubtful on the latter two because of the film's structure which places the ending just as you think the film will really get going, after a small one-on-one battle. The anti-climax makes it unsatisfying as a whole even while its parts are impressive. At least for this viewer. I see it as more of a Carol or Skyfall in terms of Oscar, i.e. big in techs but iffy in the top categories.
The other place we parted ways (though we all still love the film) was Power of the Dog; Clayton and Jazz both emphatically claim that it is Jane Campion's best film while I believe that that honor goes still, quite easily, to The Piano (1993). Mind you, that is not a knock against Power of the Dog. You can be the best film of any random year without being better than The Piano, the best film of its entire decade.
Had you been at this event, what question would you have asked? Perhaps it will inspire a future post or a discussion right here... the race is really only just beginning!