Final Oscar Nom Predix Pt 1: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Visuals, Sound
Friday, March 12, 2021 at 7:31PM
NATHANIEL R in Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Picture, Oscars (20), Punditry

As many have remarked, the 2020... excuse us 2020 plus the first two months of 2021 film year has been unpredictable and chaotic in film awards. The pandemic affected the race in virtually every way (a different eligibility period, a different set of films with many delaying their arrival a full year, all virtual campaigning and no red carpets, etcetera). We could have done without the pandemic of course but we love a messy Oscar race. It makes punditry very difficult but also way more fun. And it's also more generous to artists because messiness spreads the wealth around and the wealth should always be spread. There is so little point in 35+ awards bodies if they're all in lockstep agreement. 

Just about the only thing that's been "consensus" from the first few moments of the season to the very last (to date) via the BAFTA nominations is that (generally speaking) everyone is moved by Minari, laughs along with Maria Bakalova in Borat, and is deeply impressed with Nomadland  but especially its trailblazing writer/director/editor/producer Chloe Zhao. New consensuses (concensi?) began to emerge late in precursor season around one additional thing: Daniel Kaluuya for Best Supporting Actor in Judas and the Black Messiah in which he has the leading role of the titular Black Messiah...

Side note: It's very easy to become the frontrunner in supporting if people accept your category fraud campaign (see also Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl and Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood) though it always leaves us wondering who might have been the favourite for the supporting prize among supporting thespians without the star-blocking.

Let's start with Best Picture because that race affects almost every race down the line. It's the trickle-down effect only the real version and not right-wing fantasy.

BEST PICTURE
This is the final year of the sliding scale number of Picture nominees. Since 2011 under current voting rules anywhere number between five and ten Best Picture nominations is mathematically possible. In the nine years of this system we have only ever experienced 8 or 9 Best Picture nominees despite the possibility of 5,6,7 or 10 being named. Next year to honor the 2021 film year (which will be only 10 months long if they revert to the traditional calendar) it will change back to a complete top ten that we only experienced for two cinematic seasons, 2009 and 2010. 

If we return to the old belief (in the five-wide Best Picture system) that the DGA is the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture nominations than these would have been your Best Picture lineup even without a Best Picture expansion. 

That actually sounds about right to us given enduring buzz and precursor favor... 

Though we think Promising Young Woman might have fallen off (in the old days of 5 wide fields) becaus its such an atypical genre mix for the Academy (they aren't crazy about thrillers, satires, romcoms, or feminist fables and isn't it an inventive mix of all of those?). Surely One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey will also be nominated? After that it gets MUCH more confusing.

Who is in 8th and 9th and 10th place? It's anyone's guess. DA FIVE BLOODS started strong but faded after a  dismal showings at precursors, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH started as nonexistent but is now a possibly huge player and recency bias is real, NEWS OF THE WORLD and THE FATHER, have been consistently on the cusp and both have considerable traditionalist appeal for reasons of expert craftsmanship and being strong examples of typically beloved genres (westerns, family ilness dramas). Meanwhile SOUND OF METAL has been a stealth hopeful, slowing gathering a possibly large fanbase.  (We think BORAT SUBSEQUET MOVIEFILM is a fantasy even if the PGA loved it, and early hopefuls like FIRST COW, NEVER RARELY SOMETHING ALWAYS, and SOUL just won't be able to gather enough votes.)

We've been thinking for a long time that The Father and News of the World were both going to show up much more strongly with Oscar than they had with the precursors but we have to admit that Judas and The Black Messiah and Sound of Metal now feel like the true wildcards for Monday morning. It's easy to picture as low as 2 nominations for each of the latter two films and as high as 7. But which will it be? 

Gulp so we're going to go with... 

alt. News of the World

BEST DIRECTOR
Naturally Best Director is also confusing. Or, alternately, maybe it's simple? The DGA rarely matches Oscar 5/5 and the Academy's much smaller directing branch is less obsessed with mainstream success and they're also sometimes stingy with "acting" movies which theoretically makes both Aaron Sorkin and Lee Isaac Chung vulnerable... but to whom? Marder (Sound of...), Zeller (The Father), and King (Judas...) haven't made much headway at least visibly. On the other nothing is truly "visible" this year during the pandemic. Thomas Vinterberg's recent BAFTA nomination is interesting and we always wondered why Another Round wasn't cactching on in otther categories outside of Best International Feature since it's frankly awesome. So he could surprise. Spike Lee seemed like a good bet for career honors months ago but his film  (Da 5 Bloods) hasn't been factoring in and technically the Academy already gave him those career honors  recently with both an Honorary Oscar and a Screenplay Oscar.  And if Regina King (Miami) couldn't make it with the mainsream DGA than Oscar's more elitists directors branch -- who has resisted honoring actor/directors lately (see Bradley Cooper and Ben Affleck) is unlikely to stump for her.  So who is it going to be? 

alt. Vinterberg, Zeller

As you know we've had a hard time imagining that the Academy's more elitist director's branch would go for Sorkin BUT the competition for that fifth slot between less precursor successful and more artful options is so overflowing with acclaimed riches -- Greengrass, Reichardt, Vinterberg, King (Regina), King (Shaka), Lee, Zeller, Marder -- that in the end we're banking on them all getting in each other's way and Sorkin slipping in after all resulting in a rare 5/5 match from the DGA. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

alt. Sound of Metal, Another Round

There are two available slots and it's clearly a major three-way war between MANK, SOUND OF METAL, and JUDAS, with the outside possibility that critical darling NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS, foreign but accessible ANOTHER ROUND,  or WGA nominee PALM SPRINGS surprise. We'd drop Mank due to fading heat except that it's about a writer and about writing movies and we think that'll produce enough affection to put it offer. So let's say Judas's big speechifying outweigh Metal's less articulate struggling musician trials (even though we far prefer the latter screenplay).

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

alt. Borat, White Tiger

Adapted is less confusing since there appears to be only one open spot. BORAT, FIRST COW, NEWS OF THE WORLD, THE WHITE TIGER, THE MAURITANIAN and I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS all received some precursor play, however minor. Ending Things and The White Tiger feel like "most writing" which could definitely help them. News of the World has Best Picture heat but it doesn't truly come across as a writing showcase with all those golden vistas and quiet spells on its road trip. Borat was previously nominated in this category but a second nom feels unlikely however successful the movie has been. Flip of the coin and we're going out on a limb for 'no guts no glory' choice. Let's say that in the wild vote spread between all of these contenders, First Cow scores a surprise nomination, the first Kelly Reichardt film to ever be nominated at the Oscars.

CINEMATOGRAPHY 

alt. Trial of th Chicago 7, Cherry -- risking it saying both ASC nominations are out. 

The ASC exploded notions of what might be in play in this category by honoring CHERRY and TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7. What this says to us is that it's an open race and not necessarily that those two films will be honored. I'm resisting believing that CHICAGO 7 makes it but best picture strength is sometimes enough. 

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH could clearly benefit from the late surge (and the brilliant Sean Bobbitt has never been nominated) or TENET could benefit because the Cinematography branch likes Christopher Nolan films. CHERRY could make it across the finish line for the also never nominated Newton Thomas Sigel... though we think that might be complicated by the fact that he's also in the running for DA FIVE BLOODS. Christopher Blauvelt had a good year with EMMA. and FIRST COW but it's hard to see either of them making it. So we've decided to go way wayyyy wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out on a limb -- the furthest we've ever gone really -- and predict GUNDA that pig documentary. No documentary has been nominated for cinematography in the past 50 years (that we know of - correct us if we're wrong please) but Paul Thomas Anderson called it "pure cinema" and it is also technically an ASC nominee (albeit in Documentary Feature) and we want real bonafide bragging rights if this insane prediction comes true. 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

alt. Mulan, Midnight Sky

The ADG ignored Emma which surprised us though we could still see it making Oscar's list.  The ADG did honor Birds of Prey and as we've noted before the Academy voters are regularly interested in Batman related films even though they're not interested in the superhero genre in general and this is an offshoot that people liked alot in the spring. Plus K.K. Barrett is a previous nominee (for the futuristic designs of Her). And honestly the best picture hopefuls don't feel strong here for the most part which could  make this a surprisingly random grab bag of movies. Other possibilities that are a bit more Oscar-friendly than Birds of Prey or Emma (given its lack of an ADG nominatin): TENET, MULAN, MIDNIGHT SKY. We don't understand why the inventive designs of THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD haven't made that a lock in this category but you can't win them all. 

BEST FILM EDITING

alt. Minari & The Father

The Ace Eddie awards honored those five above plus  I CARE A LOT, ON THE ROCKS, BORAT, PALM SPRINGS, and MINARI. In a surprise they ignored NEWS OF THE WORLD (William Goldenberg is the editor in the running this year with the most previous Oscar nominations so that's.... interesting). No nomination for ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI was also a surprise. Given the clues from the ACE these our our predictions now though it breaks our heart to leave out the very deserving THE FATHER. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

alternates in this order: Birds of Prey, Mank, Soul, One and Only Ivan, Bloodshot 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

alternates in this order: Jingle Jangle, Mank, One Night in Miami, The Little Things, The Glorias

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

alternates: Tenet, Mank

Maybe it's foolish to bet against Mank and Tenet... is this just our wishful thinking for Minari? 

BEST SOUND

alternates: Tenet and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom also feel like major threats.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

alternates: Jingle Jangle "Make it Work", Sound of Metal "Green", Minari "Rain Song"

Though I'll admit I'm quite worried that Eurovision won't make it even though that song should obviously win. 

CLICK FOR PART TWO - ACTING, DOC & ANIMATED FEATURES AND MORE

 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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