When I requested to cover this category just one week after Oscar nominations were announced, I didn’t realize quite how competitive it was going to be, putting us in a scenario where anyone could win. Day won the Golden Globe, Mulligan scored with the Critics Choice Association, Davis won the SAG, and McDormand won the BAFTA! Fortunately, this is a truly fantastic slate, and as a result, I’m not going to rank them in any order of quality. Let’s dive into a remarkable list of some of this year’s best female performances…
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Playing famous people, particularly musicians, is a frequent path to nominations in this category, and Day astounds in her film debut. Holiday is a challenging character, grappling with the trauma of her past and the struggles of her future. It would be easy to show her constantly beaten down by the pressures of performance and the very real efforts by law enforcement and the government to paint her as nothing more than a drug addict. But Day brings a complex humanity to her, one that conveys a true sense of self that is constantly under uninvited review by others. Beyond the way in which she captures Holiday’s voice and mannerisms, Day creates a compelling protagonist, one who endures far beyond her film’s familiar framework. The intense preparations she undertook to sound like Holiday come off as effortless as she disappears entirely into the role.
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Davis has certainly delivered commanding turns in the past, earning Oscar nominations for Doubt and The Help before winning a few years ago for a passionate rendition of the long-suffering wife in Fences. I had hoped that she might have been here for the criminally underrated Widows in 2018, but now she’s back for another magnificent part that feels at the same time what can be expected from her and an entirely new and distinct person. She leans into what has been documented about the blues singer and enhances it with a brilliant extraction of her ego and talent. Davis is buried under heavy makeup, an extravagant wig, and layers of clothing that don’t match the brutally hot weather, and she reveals only so much about what Ma really believes. What we learn from what she does offer is that she wants to be in charge and won’t have anyone questioning her authority. Being out of place in an environment where she isn’t revered makes her grow less and less patient and accommodating, and the subtlety with which she indicates her annoyance is remarkably tempered.
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
There are certain subjects that draw on misery and pain to fuel their stories, and watching them can be deeply unpleasant. That’s one way to describe this film, which begins with a devastating extended scene and never manages to find its way out of that melancholy. Throughout that process, we have Kirby guiding us, delivering an unbelievably raw performance that fluctuates between strength and anguish. Without much introduction, the context of what is happening almost doesn’t matter, since Martha cannot escape her reality. Even if the film doesn’t always feel complete or inviting, Martha does thanks to how Kirby approaches the character. She isn’t someone who comes off as particularly friendly or warm, in part because she radiates a tough exterior to mask any sign of vulnerability. Kirby has already shown a mastery of the steely yet endearing persona in her Emmy-nominated work as Princess Margaret in The Crown, and she’s also far and away the best part of another film this year, The World to Come, which finds her facing desolation with an altogether different attitude. That Kirby made it this far with virtually no attention on her film is a testament to the towering nature of her performance.
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Like Meryl Streep, there is a degree to which McDormand could simply walk on screen and say a few lines and it would be considered a tour-de-force turn. After her first nomination in 1988 for Mississippi Burning, her very slyly comedic work in Fargo won her this prize back in 1996. She took on influential and memorable supporting roles after that in Almost Famous and North Country, before channeling that sardonic wit into a far more biting weapon. In the way that she completely embodies the premise of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which won her a second Oscar in this category three years ago, so too is she one with this year’s vehicle. The way she stares at the scenery around her is enough to convey how Fern feels about being continuously dealt a rough hand by life but knowing that she still has it much better than so many others. There is a maturity to how she greets monotony, choosing to embrace the beauty of the world around her. She invites those watching to see things through her eyes, content to continue existing without drawing unnecessary attention to herself. For an actress who knows how to be noticed and remembered in short scenes, the way in which she keeps her emotions and energy in check is even more impressive.
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Somehow, this is only Mulligan’s second Oscar nomination, returning to the lineup after a very different turn in An Education back in 2009. Her fine work in films like Shame, Drive, and Wildlife should have earned her numerous invitations, but now she’s back for what is an astonishing, film-defining performance. There are layers of brilliance to it, but let’s start with her line reading. The main point of Cassie’s mission is to show men – and certain women – the hypocrisy of the things they say and do, twisting a part of it or turning it on them to highlight the absurd double standards faced by women when, in the same situations, men are given the benefit of the doubt all too often. It could have been possible for Cassie to turn into an over-the-top villain hell-bent on revenge, but she stops herself short at every juncture, aware enough of her grand vision to know when she must resist the urge for immediate satisfaction for the sake of the bigger picture. Mulligan moves with her film, embracing its musical renditions and vibrant colors to build the narrative and keep it entirely captivating from start to finish.
Who Will Win?
Based on what we’ve seen so far this awards season, it really is anyone’s game. I would absolutely love to see Mulligan win. While Promising Young Woman has performed somewhat well this awards season, it hasn’t really been a slam dunk anywhere in terms of wins. Nomadland is winning Best Picture, and so it’s more feasible to think that McDormand will be swept along with the buzz for that film, not to mention her track record in this category. If Kirby, the only one of these women nominated alongside McDormand at BAFTA, had triumphed in her home country, that would have really made this a wide-open race. I see the case for Davis after her SAG win, but the film didn’t do well across the board, and there’s a deeper sentimentality to her late costar Chadwick Boseman’s likely win. And that leaves us with Day, who won the Golden Globe despite few other precursor nominations against this exact competition, and I think she’s the passion vote who may be able to win despite zero other nominations for her film. I’m not at all confident in that prediction – it would be crazy to be confident this year in actress punditry – but I think Day leads at the moment, with Mulligan, McDormand, or Davis just as possible.
Who impressed you most, and who do you think is going to win?