Does Having a Co-Star Nominated in the Same Category Help or Hurt a Frontrunner?
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 9:55AM
Christopher James in Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah, Lakeith Stanfield, Oscars, Punditry

by Christopher James

"Judas and the Black Messiah" became the 19th film to earn two nominations in Best Supporting Actor. Both Lakeith Stanfield (left) and Daniel Kaluuya (right) were nominated.Daniel Kaluuya has won all the major televised awards of the season so far for his tour-de-force performance as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah. This should clear an easy path for him in Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. The one difference: he faces off against co-star Lakeith Stanfield in the same category for the first time this season at the Oscars. Is this a show of confidence in the film, further solidifying his imminent win? Or does this open up the possibility for vote-splitting?

Theoretically, having multiple nominees from a film in a single category should double a film’s chances at winning...

Thus, Judas and the Black Messiah should have a 40% chance of winning Best Supporting Actor since two of the five nominees are from the film. Yet, when looking at all the times a film took up multiple acting slots, only 32% of the time did someone from the film win. This is less than expected, suggesting that there is some level of vote splitting that occurs. 

Do all acting categories see the same risk of vote splitting? Let’s take a look.


Most of the time double nominees happen, it is in the supporting actress category. In fact, 49% of the occurrences of multiple actors from the same movie earning nominations are in the supporting actress category. This higher volume doesn’t necessarily change much about the success rate. Just over one-third of time, one of the two women nominated from the film will win. This is in line with what we see for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor.

The only category that is more prone to vote splitting is Best Actress. There have only been five occurrences of two actresses from the same movie earning nominations in Best Actress. Only once has this resulted in a win (Shirley MacLaine for Terms of Endearment, nominated against Debra Winger). This speaks to female centric films with dual leads not often being Oscar's preference.

The increased campaign preference for Category Fraud has also led to no recent lead acting categories nominating two actors from the same film. The last time that happened in Best Actor was 1984, where F. Murray Abraham beat Tom Hulce for Amadeus. In Best Actress, both Susan Sarandon and Geena Davis competed against each other and lost for Thelma & Louise in 1991. Plenty of co-lead movies have seen both their stars nominated across the two categories (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Two Popes, Carol, The Danish Girl, and countless more) thanks to Category Fraud.

The success rate for actors who appear in the same movie has gone up over the decades. In the supporting categories, two actors have been nominated for the same movie a total of five times (excluding this year). Of those five occurrences, three times someone from the movie with dual nominees won. These winners include Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Octavia Spencer (The Help) and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

This is a huge help to Daniel Kaluuya. In each of these cases, the winner was the clear frontrunner in the category. The second nominee from each of their films were more of a sign of the film’s strength at the Oscars (see Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) or the coattails of other performances (see The Help). When looking at the two times dual nominees from a film didn’t equal a win in the past decade, none of the nominees were frontrunners. For The Irishman, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci both had pockets of passionate fans. Yet, the entire season belonged to Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and neither of them were ever going to dethrone him. In the case of The Favourite, Rachel Weisz had a shot at pulling out a surprise win over Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. Likely co-nominee Emma Stone siphoned off votes from her, making it much harder to pull off that feat.

The most clear example from recent nominees where having a second nominee demonstrably hurt a frontrunner’s chances was in 2000 when Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand were nominated for Almost Famous. Hudson was favored to win. Yet, in hindsight, her main precursor heading into the night was a Golden Globes win. Plus, McDormand had won critics prizes thanks to great performances in multiple films that year, including Wonder Boys. All of this led to a shocking upset by Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock. 

In short, having a second nominee from a film only splits votes if neither nominee is a clear frontrunner. If someone is trying to plan a surprise win, having a second nominee could backfire. However, clear frontrunners like Daniel Kaluuya shouldn’t be worried about any vote splitting. Though LaKeith Stanfield is great in the film, he is the surprise nominee (and clear lead) and hasn’t exactly been playing the Oscar game. It’s Kaluuya’s Oscar to lose.

F. Murray Abraham won Best Actor in 1984 in "Amadeus," also starring fellow nominee Tom Hulce.

Best Actor

Shirley Maclaine (right) is the only actress to win Best Actress when nominated against a co-star (Debra Winger, left).

Best Actress

Woody Harrelson's (left) nomination for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissourI" was a sign that helped usher Sam Rockwell (right) to the win.

Best Supporting Actor

Octavia Spencer (right) prevailed over co-star Jessica Chastain (left) in Best Supporting Actress for "The Help."

Best Supporting Actress

Do you expect Daniel Kaluuya will prevail at the Oscars? Let us know in the comments below.

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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