How did you do on your predictions? Yesterday we published the final predictions from all Film Experience writers. While many of the expected films (Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin) successfully made good on their Oscar promise, even we were stumped on a few nominees. Perhaps we should’ve taken Titanic stars Kate Winslet and Frances Fisher more seriously when they posted about Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. However, we have the results of which writers came out ahead on our friendly competition!
So who won? Check out the score after the jump...
The Team
Before we jump into the results, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.
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A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer
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B.C. = Baby Clyde
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B.M. = Ben Miller
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C.J. = Chris James
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C.A. = Cláudio Alves
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E.B. = Eric Blume
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E.C. = Eurocheese
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E.G. = Elisa Giudici
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G.D. = Glenn Dunks
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N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)
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N.T. = Nick Taylor
For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.
THE WINNERS
It depends on how you look at it.
Our fearless leader Nathaniel Rogers predicted the most nominees correctly, with 81 out of 105 nominees correct (77% success rate). However, if one looks at weighted points (example: putting something in first place gets you 5 points, so on), Christopher James earned the most points with 291 points, out of a possible 355 points.
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TOTAL POINTS |
% POINTS |
TOTAL NOMS |
% NOMS |
|
|
Nathaniel Rogers |
288 |
81.13% |
81 |
77.14% |
|
Chris James |
291 |
81.97% |
79 |
75.24% |
|
Eric Blume |
285 |
80.28% |
79 |
75.24% |
|
Nick Taylor |
282 |
79.44% |
76 |
72.38% |
|
Cláudio Alves |
282 |
79.44% |
75 |
71.43% |
|
Glenn Dunks |
275 |
77.46% |
75 |
71.43% |
|
Eurocheese |
277 |
78.03% |
74 |
70.48% |
|
Abe Fried-Tanzer |
274 |
77.18% |
71 |
67.62% |
|
Baby Clyde |
201 |
56.62% |
53 |
50.48% |
THE RESULTS
So what did we predict correctly, and which categories stumped us? Let’s take a look at some key categories.
Categories With The Strongest Predictions (Points Based)
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Best Actor - 98.52% predicted correctly
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All but two writers went 5/5 in this category. Those two writers predicted Tom Cruise for Top Gun: Maverick.
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Best Original Screenplay - 97.78% predicted correctly
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All but three writers went 5/5 in this category. Two writers predicted Aftersun, while one predicted Decision to Leave.
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Best Picture - 96.77% predicted correctly
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Best Sound - 90.83% predicted correctly
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Best Animated Feature - 89.62% predicted correctly
Categories With The Weakest Predictions (Points Based)
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Best Cinematography - 41.48% predicted correctly
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Not only did no one get all five correct, no writer did any better than three out of five.
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Top Gun: Maverick was #1 on two-thirds of the ballots. It ended up snubbed in this category.
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Best Original Score - 63.33% predicted correctly
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Not only did no one get all five correct, no writer did any better than three out of five.
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Best International Feature - 71.85% predicted correctly
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Best Actress - 73.33% predicted correctly
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Best Film Editing - 74.17% predicted correctly
Biggest Surprises - Nominees No-One Predicted
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Best Actress - Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie
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Best Animated Feature - The Sea Beast
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Best Documentary Feature - A House Made of Splinters
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Best Film Editing - Monika Willi - Tár
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Best Original Score - Son Lux - Everything Everywhere All At Once
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Best Original Song - “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Biggest Snubs - Predicted by All Writers, Missed Oscar
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Best Actress - Danielle Deadwyler - Till
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Best Cinematography - Claudio Miranda - Top Gun: Maverick
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Best Original Score - Alexandre Desplat - Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
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Best Original Score - Hildur Guðnadóttir - Women Talking
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Best Original Song - “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
No Guts No Glory - Shoutouts to Lone Predictions That Worked Out
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Eric Blume was the only writer to correctly predict Ruben Ostlünd in Best Director for Triangle of Sadness!
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Nathaniel Rogers was the only writer to correctly predict Brian Tyree Henry in Best Supporting Actor for Causeway!
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Eric Blume was the only writer to correctly predict Florian Hoffmeister in Best Cinematography for Tár!
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Nathaniel Rogers was the only writer to correctly predict Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in Best Makeup & Hairstyling!
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Nick Taylor was the only writer to correctly predict Volker Bertelmann in Best Original Score for All Quiet on the Western Front!
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Cláudio Alves was the only writer to correctly predict The Batman in Best Sound.
How did you do on your Oscar predictions? Let us know in the comments below.
Previous Weeks:
- Round 1: Post Thanksgiving Snapshot
- Round 2: Doc, International & Animation
- Round 3: Oscar Shortlists
- Round 4: Post-Holidays
- Round 5: Final Predictions