by Nathaniel R
Obviously we will say much more (and update the charts) but for now, all the nominees and extremely short takes after the jump...
PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar the Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking...
quick take - the expected "eight" plus Women Talking (which was obviously on the bubble) and Triangle of Sadness which held on to its buzz from way back in the summer to fend off December hits Glass Onion and The Whale
predictions? 9/10
DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh, Banshees
Daniels, EEAAO
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tar
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
quick take -- argh. I had Ostlund in my predictions for literally MONTHS. I was so sure and then when buzz faded I withdrew him. Otherwise this is the expected lineup but that fifth slot remained a wildcard the whole season.
predicitions? 4/5
ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Ana de Armas
Andrea Riseborough
Michelle Williams
Michelle Yeoh
quick take - we knew this category was messy with possibility. In the end Andrea Riseborough landed an unprecented nomination (no precursor support and with a movie that was barely released) indicating voters were not fully convinced on this category to begin with and that last minute push from her peers did the trick. In the past when grassroots campaigns for actors had come up there were usually indications that people were obsessed with their work before voting week. Our hunch that Viola Davis wouldn't be nominated proved true but we were surprised to see Danielle Deadwyler absent. It just goes to remind us that if your film is not buzzing in multiple categories you're vulnerable until the end (see also Eddie Redmayne's absence this morning)
predictions? 3/5
ACTOR
Austin Butler
Colin Farrell
Brendan Fraser
Paul Mescal
Bill Nighy
quick take - a very very fine lineup! So happy for Mescal who is the most exciting actor of his generation (Thus far)
predictions? 5/5
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett
Hong Chau
Kerry Condon
Jamie Lee Curtis
Stephanie Hsu
quick take - in an extremely volatile category, the strength of Everything Everywhere All At Once across the board buoyed both of its supporting women into the mix. Very sad to see the great Dolly De Leon left out though after her Globes & BAFTA nominations.
predictions? 4/5
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson
Brian Tyree Henry
Judd Hirsch
Barry Keoghan
Ke Huy Quan
quick take / predictions? 4/5 Though I had predicted Judd Hirsch, I dropped Brian Tyree Henry rather than Paul Dano. Thrilled for Hirsch and Henry (who is just excellent in Causeway) but wish Dano had been here too.
COSTUME
Babylon
Black Panther
Elvis
Everything
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
quick take - a major get for Everything Everywhere All At Once. It's very rare for contemporary films to land nominations. The multiverse madness did the trick to get around their anti-contemporary bias.
predictions - 4/5
CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar
quick take - a major surprise in this category with TAR taking the place people of the expected Top Gun Maverick (which most thought would sail to a win! We had it ranked #1 most likely in this category. Whoops). We were WAY off on our predictions this year, going out on a limb thinking they'd switch it up a lot from the ASC nominees. They did indeed fo 3/5 as we predicted but we predicted the wrong switcheroos. They dumped The Batman and Top Gun Maverick when we thought it was Elvis and Bardo that were vulnerable.
predictions? 2/5
PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet
Avatar
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
quick take - A solid list. Very happy about The Fabelmans landing.That Catherine Martin (Mrs Baz Luhrmann) sure is an Oscar magnet. Here again for Elvis.
predictions 4/5 I missed All Quiet on the Western Front thinking Glass Onion would score.
FILM EDITING
Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
quick take - Another surprise get for TAR. Which makes us wonder if TAR would have been top five in the pre-expanded BP years. The Fabelmans is the big miss here given that its most thrilling scene is ABOUT film editing.
predictions 3/5 Missed Tar and Banshees, predicting Avatar and All Quiet on the Western Front. Hilariously this category is one of the only places that the latter didn't score.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet
The Batman
Black Panther
Elvis
The Whale
quick take predictions -5/5 - they really couldn't get enough of All Quiet on the Western Front in the craft categories.
VISUAL EFFECTS
All quiet
Avatar
The Batman
Black Panther
Top Gun Maverick
quick take / predictions 3/5 - Wakanda Forever did what the first Black Panther couldn't do: score a nomination in this category. I also hopedicted Nope in place of The Batman and stand by the fact that it's much more deserving.
SOUND
All Quiet
Avatar The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun Maverick
quick take / predictions - 4/5 I predicted Everything Everywhere All At Once instead of The Batman but this is one category that the multiverse madness did not effect.
ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere
The Fablemans
quick take - predictions 3/5 a surprise miss for Pinocchio and Women Talking given precursor support. I missed All Quiet and Everything Everywhere All At Once which took their place. Both of the latter films were today's overperformers.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Applause” - Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” - Top Gun Maverick
“Lift Me Up” - Black Panther Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” -RRR
“This is a Life” - EEAAO
quick take predictions 3/5- Nothing can get the Oscars to stop defaulting Diane Warren songs to their top five each year. Not even an Honorary Oscar in the same year. No matter how obscure the movie or how end credits-disposal the song is, she will be nominated! Basically there are just four available slots each year. Very sad not to see any songs (other than Naatu Naatu) that contribute to their film's narrative journey or provide indelible scenes. It's all credit style songs (sigh). Pinocchio's "Ciao Papa" and White Noise's "New Body Rhumba" were right there! This branch remains the absolute worst of all Oscar branches.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun Maverick
Women Talking
quick take predictions 4/5 - All Quiet instead of The Whale here. Good call. Too bad there couldn't have been a surprise like, say, The Quiet Girl or Pinocchio to replace Top Gun Maverick.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
Quick take /predictions? 4/5 Our hunch that Aftersun had risen enough to score 3 big Oscar nominations did not pay off and it only landed in Best Actor.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet
Argentina 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
quick take/predictions? 4/5 Though I suggested in my predictions that Decision to Leave might be a surprise snub, I didn't actually predict this. The Quiet Girl is wonderful though so we won't complain. Pity that there was no room for Pakistan's Joyland which is better than all but one of these films.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
predictions? 4/5 I missed The Sea Beast because I wanted to take a huge risk. Alas... Anyway a solid 5 this year. No bad movies nominated.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
quick take/predictions? 4/5 I missed House Made of SPlinters which made good on its EFA run to score with Oscar too.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
quick take - The Martha Mitchell Effect is really good though I suspect Elephant Whisperers will be a stronger competitor. Both are available on Netflix!
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Boy The Mole the Fox
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me The World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
quick take - I've seen all but one of these (The Flying Sailor) and I would rate them okay (the Boy The Mole The Fox) straight through to perfect (Ice Merchants). My Year of Dicks led to one of the best moments of the Oscar nomination announcement. Now we will forever have audio of Riz Ahmed saying "My Year of Dicks". "You're welcome," - The Academy probably.
ANY QUICK FEELINGS OF YOUR OWN TO SHARE?