by Christopher James
Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon are obvious frontrunners, but who is the leader among The Film Experience writers as of now?
With the Gotham Awards and New York Film Critics Awards having announced their winners, the Oscars race is officially afoot! We have surveyed The Film Experience writers and asked them to make predictions in the main eight categories - Picture, Directing, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay. Every other week, we will check in with the team to see who has risen or fallen in the rankings.
Martin Scorsese’s epic drama, Killers of the Flower Moon, had the strongest showing of the week, awards-wise. It took home Best Picture at the New York Film Critics Awards and stars Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro had the most high profile moments of the Gotham Awards. Does that mean it is out in front, or does Oppenheimer still have the distinction of frontrunner status? See what the Film Experience Team thinks after the jump...
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Best Picture Predictions
Right now it is the battle of the three hour plus epics, with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer as the current frontrunner. Six out of nine writers have placed it in the number one slot of their Oscar predictions, while two others put Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon up top.
If we were still in a world of five nominees, the team seems pretty clear on which movies would make the cut. All writers have predicted a Best Picture nomination for Barbie, Poor Things and The Holdovers, with a majority of them putting each of those films in their top 5. It’s too early for anything to be a sure thing, but those films should feel pretty comfortable in their place in the race right now.
The remaining five slots could go any which way. Some movies like Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall and Gotham Awards winner Past Lives are predicted by nearly all writers, but lower in the field of 10. Meanwhile, the most divisive movie of the bunch seems to be Bradley Cooper’s Maestro. The Netflix biopic of Leonard Bernstein sits atop Ben Miller’s prediction, but is missing from two of nine writers’ predictions. Similarly, our editor Nathaniel Rogers is bullish on American Fiction, but not all writers share that confidence.
At this moment, The Color Purple rounds out the field of 10, but its Christmas release will likely determine whether it rises or falls in the predictions. Just outside, films large and small vie to break into the Best Picture mix, such as The Zone of Interest, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Air.
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Best Director Predictions
Our two fearless auteurs also battle it out for the Best Director award. Nolan was at the top of the predictions for six writers, while the remaining three predicted Scorsese. No one else is unanimously predicted for Best Director, though Yorgos Lanthimos is comfortably in third place in this race.
The last two spaces could go to a whole slew of people. Greta Gerwig could earn her second directing nomination for Barbie, making her only the second woman to earn multiple directing nominations (after Jane Campion). After getting snubbed for directing A Star is Born, Bradley Cooper hopes to cash in an Oscar IOU with Maestro. Other directors looking for their first Oscar nominations include Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) and Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple). It’s also possible that the Academy could reward an old favorite, giving Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) his fourth Directing nomination.
Click to get expanded view.Best Actress Predictions
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Emma Stone could win her second Best Actress Oscar for her role in Poor Things. She’s mentioned in all writers’ predictions, taking the top spot at six out of nine of them. Her strongest challenger is Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, who is also cited on everyone’s predictions. The rest of the category is a bit fuzzy. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) and Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) appear to be in third and fourth place, respectively. Yet, both of them are predicted to be snubbed by some.
So who rounds out the category? Baby Clyde is confident enough in Fantasia Barrino that they put her in position number one for The Color Purple. Other actresses vying for that final spot include Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One).
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Best Actor Predictions
While Best Actress has many contenders with few sure things, Best Actor feels a lot more secure. Bradley Cooper (Maestro) and Cilian Murphy (Oppenheimer) are in a close fight for the win, while Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) are securely in third and fourth place. The race for fifth place seems to only be between a few people. Colman Domingo hopes his showy role in Rustin can earn him his first Oscar nomination, while Leonardo DiCaprio looks to ride Killers of the Flower Moon enthusiasm to his seventh nomination. Eric Blume is sticking his neck out for Andrew Scott to contend for Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers.
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Best Supporting Actress Predictions
Best Supporting Actress has the greatest number of contenders among the major awards (other than the 10-slot-wide Best Picture). It’s exciting to see a race that can go so many places.
The only two who should feel secure and safe are Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). Both made everyone’s predictions and were separated by only one point for the win. Solidly in third place is Emily Blunt, who is taking advantage of Oppenheimer’s early release to carve a place for herself in this category.
From there, things get much murkier. Taraji P. Henson hopes that history repeats itself with two actresses from The Color Purple making it into Best Supporting Actress. From there, we have four Oscar winners hoping to represent their films - Jodie Foster (Nyad), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Julianne Moore (May December) and Viola Davis (Air). Name recognition and “best in show” accolades could propel them to a nomination, but there are other choices nipping at their toes. Rosamund Pike steals scenes as a vapid Mom in Saltburn. Meanwhile, if Sandra Huller fever takes over, she could potentially earn nominations in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. Finally, if Barbie overperforms for nominations, there’s a world in which America Ferrera nabs a coattails nomination.
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Best Supporting Actor Predictions
Barbenheimer round two will commence in the Best Supporting Actor race as Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) lead our predictions for two very different performances. From there, Poor Things looks guaranteed to secure one spot in the field, likely Mark Ruffalo. If Willem Dafoe also gets in for the film, that would be a strong sign of support for the film and make it more of a competitor all around.
After a win at the Gothams, Charles Melton’s campaign for May December gained a great deal of heat. It’s possible that either he or newcomer Dominic Sessa can overtake a veteran actor like Robert De Niro, though it's an uphill battle as the Oscars are normally resistant to young men. The final outside contender is John Magaro, who could wind up in the category if Past Lives resurges at the right time.
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Best Adapted and Original Screenplay Predictions
Many of the Best Picture contenders are taking up lots of air in the screenplay categories. Poor Things currently overtakes the two Picture frontrunners - Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer, but all feel like likely Adapted Screenplay nominees, alongside American Fiction. Over in Original Screenplay, The Holdovers has a more commanding lead. Barbie, Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall all seem likely strong, worthy also-rans.
Both categories have pretty wide-open fifth slots that could conceivably go to films that aren’t as large contenders in the Best Picture race. For Adapted Screenplay, All of Us Strangers and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret could sneak in over bigger Oscar players like The Zone of Interest and The Color Purple. Similarly, movies like May December, Saltburn and Air look to overtake the bait-y biopic Maestro.
Who do you think will earn Oscar nominations in the Picture, Directing, Acting and Writing categories? Let us know in the comments below.