by Christopher James
We are at an inflection point with the Emmys this year. Three previous winners are coming to an end this season, and a few series nominees who have waited patiently for their time at the top are in play. Still, many shows have won big time at the Emmys for their final seasons. The Sopranos and Breaking Bad coasted on acclaim for sticking their landing. Even shows like Friday Night Lights and The Americans finally won key awards for fantastic final seasons after never receiving Emmy acclaim before then. Having a strong ending isn’t even necessary sometimes. Game of Thrones was able to coast to a final win, despite a poorly reviewed ending.
With shows like Succession, Ted Lasso, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Barry and Better Call Saul all ending this Emmy season, which will take the crown?
On the Drama side (see Abe's predictions if you missed them), it’s a bit easier to see how the “series finale” narrative will secure a big victory. Succession dominated the cultural conversation for the past few months thanks to its adventurous third episode, which launched the bickering sibling drama to new, emotionally resonant heights. This all culminated in a satisfying ending that had the good sense to provide closure, no matter how tough. Seasons two and three of the show have both won Emmys and it's likely the fourth and final season will follow suit. The better question will be “how many Emmys can Succession win?” The acting categories are going to be a bloodbath, with Sarah Snook and Kieran Culkin promoted to lead alongside former winner Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox. Both lead acting categories could go to members of the Roy family, just as Matthew Macfadyen could repeat in the Supporting Actor category.
While Succession is a recent cultural phenomenon, the competition will be putting up a fight. There has been loud trumpeting to finally reward Better Call Saul, the spinoff-prequel to the Emmy award winning Breaking Bad. After an incredibly well-reviewed final season, the AMC series looks to cash in on the building good will for the series. Unfortunately, the show has never won a single Emmy (other than some for its short form training videos). This makes the David vs Goliath matchup even harder for Better Call Saul against the behemoth Succession. Realistically, Saul has a better chance of winning a writing consolation prize, as it has always reliably shown up in that category.
The last two years, Ted Lasso has dominated the Comedy categories (see Abe's predictions if you missed 'em). It won 11 Emmys out of 40 nominations across the first two seasons, including consecutive wins for Outstanding Comedy Series. All numerical signs point to the Apple TV+ breakout hit repeating its win for its third and final season, except for one - its dwindling media reception. Consider that its Rotten Tomatoes score has dropped to 79% from 98% in season two. The final season of Ted Lasso was a noticeable drop in quality from previous seasons. Character arcs fell flat. The writing of each character blended together. Episodes stretched well past the hour mark with no end in sight. It's true there were some mixed reactions to season two, which took a darker look at the positive titular coach, and it still won. But its win tally went from seven wins in season one to four in season two. Perhaps Ted Lasso’s luck will run out on his third outing?
With stiff competition, it’s hard for a show to break back into Emmy favor if it fell even slightly out of favor. As stated before, the Emmys can often default to a former winner, regardless of the quality of the most recent season. This doesn’t bode well for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, which has been falling in terms of wins and nominations since its breakout first season. The previous season in particular was uneven, as story took a backseat to tired repetitive antics from side characters like Jane Lynch’s Sophie Lennon. For comparison's sake, Mad Men had won four consecutive times in drama, and never returned to favor after losing to Homeland in season five. By the time its buzzy final season arrived, it wasn’t able to course correct and Game of Thrones ended up winning for the first time.
Thus, imagine my surprise when Mrs Maisel came roaring back with arguably its best season yet. Jumping back and forth between the (relative) future (aka the 70s/80s) and the show’s present in the early 60s, it quickly establishes an engaging mystery that colors the forward momentum of the season. We learn that Midge (Rachel Brosnahan) and Susie (Alex Borstein) both achieve meteoric success by the 70s, but a falling out ruins their relationship. We crescendo towards an answer to this drama in inventive ways, with an 80s set Friars Club roast of Susie standing out as the most dynamic of the season. The 60s set storyline is just as interesting, as Midge inches closer to the success she craves once she gets a writing job on the Gordon Ford show, a late night show akin to Jimmy Carson. The host is played by a wonderful Reid Scott, who makes for a fantastic scene partner for Brosnahan. While this rebound in quality could allow Maisel to be competitive in many of the main categories, it's more likely to be an also-ran in categories it has won previously, like Series, Actress, both Supporting categories and Directing.
Maisel wasn’t the only show to take a risk and succeed in its final season. HBO’s Barry had taken a sharp turn towards drama season after season, with results being particularly mixed in the past year. Yet, the past season managed to expertly blend Barry’s guilt and anguish with absurdist comedy twists. Pathos and cynicism can be a tricky mix, but thanks to bold moves (and a rare example of a time jump that pays off), Barry stuck a landing that was always going to be tricky to pull off. Season three had a small dip in nominations (down from 17 in season 2 to 14 in season 3) and didn’t win any Primetime Emmys after two consecutive wins for actor Bill Hader in the titular role. There still seems to be considerable love for the show and it could be a dark horse (emphasis on dark) to steal the thunder of the comparably joyful Ted Lasso.
Other TV shows that once had Emmy glory are competing for their final season, but may face an uphill battle. Atlanta’s fourth season aired back in November to similar raves as its other seasons. However, season three fell way behind in terms of nominations after a long hiatus and it may have trouble regaining its footing with the Television Academy. HBO’s Perry Mason was supposed to be a bigger Emmy player in drama when it premiered last year, but it only wound up with four nominations. Granted, two were for acting (Matthew Rhys in Lead Actor and John Lithgow in Supporting Actor). Unfortunately, not getting renewed for a third season will likely hurt its chances to expand into additional categories.
Some may hold out hope for some critical favorites that wound up canceled recently. The Max Original The Other Two was unceremoniously canceled after claims of harassment were levied against creators Chris Kelly and Sarah Schneider. Still, season three found a way to provide a heartfelt cap to the season that also doubled as a satisfying end for the show as a whole. A win for either of these shows would be a lone writing, directing or acting nomination. Unfortunately, it’s hard for a canceled show to break into the Emmys race, especially if it wasn't Emmy-loved in previous seasons. Both The Good Fight (Paramount+) and The Goldbergs (ABC) should’ve been Emmy contenders. Despite Critics Choice nominations and strong reviews, they never earned Primetime Emmy nominations. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that they will break through in the final moments, as it usually takes more time to accumulate Emmy favor. For example, Schitt’s Creek had one season of Emmy success before dominating in its final season.
Emmy nominations are just a couple short days away. We’ll have a better sense of which way things are trending for the win once nominations are revealed. If Ted Lasso loses ground in nominations, that could help Maisel or Barry create a final season narrative, or open us up to a new winner like The Bear or Abbott Elementary.
What do you think -- will any of these finale seasons triumph in the end?