Hiam Abbass
Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series and Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series are two of the races where only two HBO series are represented, and they also happen to contain nominees from the exact same two shows: The Last of Us and Succession. Before we get to the people recognized and the work they did (spoiler alerts for both series), let’s take a look at the history of these categories and whether this has happened in the past...
The closest example I could find was in 1987, when there was just one category (Guest Performer in a Drama Series), and the five-wide lineup boasted three picks from St. Elsewhere and two from L.A. Law (Alfre Woodard won). In 1977, there were two breakdowns, lead actor and supporting actor, termed a “single performance in a comedy or drama series.” All four lead mentions came from Roots, and four out of five of the supporting nominations were also from Roots, with Louis Gossett Jr. and Ed Asner taking home the prizes for that groundbreaking miniseries.
In a closer parallel to today, the 2002 guest actor lineup, with five nominees, featured just two shows, The Practice and The West Wing, with Charles S. Dutton winning for the former. The guest actress lineup, however, featured entirely different shows, with Six Feet Under snagging three of the slots (and a win for Patricia Clarkson) and the other two going to ER and Law & Order: SVU. Last year is the first time I can find that any one show in this current two-category system got four nominations in a single category, and that would of course be Succession, which is actually down two bids this year with a (hardly) measly five mentions across both races.
James Cromwell
Now on to this year’s returning nominees. Harriet Walter is a double guest nominee for the second year in a row for portraying memorable mothers on both Succession and Ted Lasso. This is her third bid for playing Caroline Roy. James Cromwell is also back for a third time for his portrayal of Ewan Roy, and he has two past bids in this category, for ER and Six Feet Under, plus a nomination for RKO 281 and a win for American Horror Story. Cherry Jones won in 2020 for playing Nan Pierce and triumphed the year before for The Handmaid’s Tale, her second bid for that role. She also won for her presidential turn in 24 back in 2009. Arian Moayed was nominated last year for playing Stewy, which makes Hiam Abbass the only Succession newbie. She was in the overcrowded supporting actress field back in season two, and it’s likelier that she came closest to an Emmy nomination in the past for Ramy, which was shut out by voters this year after a lukewarm embrace in season two.
Storm Reid
Moving over to the Last of Us cast, Murray Bartlett, who won an Emmy for season one of The White Lotus, is also in contention this year for Welcome to Chippendales. Melanie Lynskey is up for drama lead actress for Yellowjackets, marking her second consecutive nomination for that part. Nick Offerman, who was somehow never nominated for Parks and Recreation, earned three mentions for reality-competition host along with Amy Poehler for Making It. This is the first Emmy nomination for the other four performers: Lamar Johnson, Anna Torv, Storm Reid, and Keivonn Montreal Woodard.
Keivonn Montreal Woodard and Lamar Johnson
The next step is to look at which performers are technically competing against one another, as in they’ve submitted the same episodes for consideration (spoilers begin now). That’s the case for both sets of The Last of Us men, with Bartlett and Offerman playing life partners and Johnson and Woodard acting as brothers. For me, it’s hard to pick a favorite even from among either pair, and there’s a certain nuance to each performance that makes them all worthy of applause. Woodard may be the most impressive simply because of his young age and the fact that he’s doing exceptional work with clearly difficult material.
Harriet Walter
Succession gets a bit more complicated, since both Walter and Cromwell selected the unforgettable funeral episode, while Abbass chose the earlier hour that takes place at the wake. Abbass has phenomenal material in both installments, and she actually has a great scene with Walter in the later episode. That might give her a leg up, especially since she’s been such a part of the show throughout in a more significant capacity, whereas her nominated costars are much more clearly guests.
Cherry Jones in season 2 of Succession
I’m puzzled about Jones’ inclusion here, since she’s done great work in the past but barely appears in her submitted episode. That hasn’t stopped her from winning in the past, namely for The Handmaid’s Tale when she was such an insignificant part of the episode that resulted in a win. I’d argue the same thing is true for Moayed, an actor I like who didn’t do much this season, and who I would have rather seen honored last year for his supporting work opposite Julia Garner in Inventing Anna. The fact that there are zero photos of Jones or Moayed from season four of Succession on the show’s press site is telling of their overall relevance to the season. From the Succession crew, Abbass is clearly the best, while Cromwell is a close second for making the most of just one scene.
Anna Torv
The Last of Us boasts excellence all around. There were a number of other actors on the ballot, including Ashley Johnson, who I predicted, Nico Parker, and Merle Dandridge. Torv is interesting since anyone who watched just the first episode of the show might have thought she was a lead, but she came to a grisly end at the close of episode two. Johnson and Woodard were great to watch together, and Reid, Bartlett, and Offerman made me care about characters I knew weren’t going to make it. Bartlett and Offerman’s episode could have been its own series, and there’s a reason that hour was the only one submitted by the show for directing and writing.
Melanie Lynskey
To me, the best of the bunch remains Lynskey, who is constantly surprising with her quiet ferocity on Yellowjackets, and who was downright terrifying as the vindictive Kathleen, enacting vengeance on behalf of her late brother who had specifically told her to choose forgiveness instead. It’s an electrifying turn from a formidable actress, and I still shiver thinking about the coldness with which she told her deputy that of course they weren’t going to give the collaborators a fair trial. I’d also pick either Bartlett or Offerman, and I might actually lean towards the latter because the dependable and typically comedic performer does a remarkable job of crafting a slowly-softening soul in a tender arc opposite an equally superb Bartlett.
Murray Bartlett and Nick Offerman
For my winner predictions, I’ll pick double nominees Lynskey and Bartlett. If Succession weren’t a thing, then Lynskey would be winning for Yellowjackets, and so it feels right that she’d win for this stunning turn since there’s plenty of buzz around her at the moment (a rare moment where timing and talent collide). Bartlett has that White Lotus win plus his other nomination for Welcome to Chippendales this year that I don’t think will lead to a victory, but he’s got sufficient goodwill to be the frontrunner. As alternates, I’d go with Abbass and Woodard.
What do you think of these lineups, and who do you think is going to win?