Who Will Be The Snub or Surprise at Oscars?
Friday, January 12, 2024 at 1:00PM
Christopher James in Oscar Punditry, Oscars (23)

By: Christopher James

Can the entire trio of Killers of the Flower Moon get nominated after Leo's SAG snub?

Now that the SAG Awards have announced their nomination, we have a very clear picture of where the Oscar acting races are heading into Oscar voting. Every year features its snubs and surprises. The one thing you can rely on the Oscars for are some curveballs. However, there are ways we can systematically predict the lineup using the numbers of the past to inform the future.

Let’s apply some statistics to figure out the most likely nominees...

How Many Oscar Snubs and Surprises Will There Be This Year?

Sixteen actors have earned nominations from all three major precursors - Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. This has been the highest it has been since 2018 and is only lower than 2013 and 2014. In all three of those years, there were at least two nominees who were Oscar snubbed after receiving all major precursor nominations. In 2013, there were three snubs of that magnitude (Daniel Brühl - Rush, Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks, Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips). Additionally, those years all featured one surprise nomination who was snubbed by all major voting bodies.

Typically, performing a hat trick of nominations at these shows gives you a 91% chance at an Oscar nomination, which would mean 15 of the 16 would earn nominations. Yet, analyzing the past 21 years, one sees that normally 66% of the field is filled with nominees who have managed this feat. Plus, 6% of nominees from the past 20 years came without any precursor support.

Taking these stats into consideration, it appears there will be 14 nominees with three precursors, 4 nominees with 2 precursors, 1 nominee with 1 precursor and 1 surprise nominee that has not shown up at these awards shows. That means there will be 2 major snubs this year.

 

Who Will Be The Biggest Snubs of the Awards Season?

First, let’s take a look at the actors and actresses that have received all three precursor nominations:

The most likely recipient of an Oscar snub is a performer from a “This Had Oscar Buzz” movie. This means, the actor was likely the main push for their film and, without their nomination, the movie got no other nominations. Only 23% of the time does a performer from a Best Picture nominee end up a snub.

This means the most vulnerable actors from the above bunch are Colman Domingo (Rustin), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) and Jodie Foster (Nyad). Brooks is a frontrunner in the category and The Color Purple will likely show up a few other places at the Oscars, especially after the SAG Ensemble nomination. This makes me believe Domingo and Foster will each be the recipient of snubs this year.

In particular, the leading acting categories are most likely to see these surprise snubs. This speaks once again to Colman Domingo being one of the surprise snubs this year. If Jodie Foster isn’t the second and it is coming from a lead acting category, either Carey Mulligan or Jeffrey Wright could still be vulnerable, if their movie were to underperform overall. Between the two, Mulligan feels a more likely snub since American Fiction is surging post-SAG nominations.

Who Will Be The Biggest Surprise on Oscar Nomination Morning?

The most likely reason for someone to show up unexpectedly at the Oscars is because of coattails from a movie that is popular and well-watched during voting. Nearly half the time that comes from a Best Picture nominee, but 19% of the time it also comes from coattails from a lead performance that is locked up in their category. Let’s take a look at the field, who are some people that fit into either of these categories.

There is always the chance that a previous nominee who’s on a hot streak can find their way into the race. In theory, this could apply to Helen Mirren (Golda), Julia Roberts (Leave the World Behind), Jessica Chastain (Memory), Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon), Adam Driver (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (The Burial), Anne Hathaway (Eileen) or Anthony Hopkins (Freud’s Last Session). Yet, all of those are favorites of the previous organizations and would likely have been nominated if they had any heat. There’s some heat for Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) or Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple). However, they aren’t Oscar perennials enough for this to apply. The two most recent times have been for very lauded international performances from minted Oscar winners (who happen to be married to each other) - Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Javier Bardem (Biutiful). The only person that fits this description is Juliette Binoche for The Taste of Things. The film has picked up steam in recent weeks since the film made the international shortlist and Binoche is a previous winner, famously beating Lauren Bacall in 1996.

Of course, there’s always Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) or Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie). Any actor could pop up from any movie, even if it's not factoring in elsewhere. However, who can forget the groundswell of late support for Riseborough last year (“a small movie with a big heart”). Frances Fisher has just thrown her support behind Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for Origin, so she could surprise at the last minute, but the minute just might be too late on this one.

While snubs are most likely to happen in lead categories, these surprises are most likely to happen in the supporting categories. This also aligns with the above learning that coattails are the most likely reason an actor can sneak in without precursor support.

Taking the major two data points/assumptions (that the surprise will be in supporting and will be a coattails nomination from a Best Picture nominee), the most likely surprise nominees are Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) or Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest). We’ll talk more about Hüller’s chances for Anatomy of a Fall shortly. However, the excitement around these two very different performances could lead her to two nominations this year. It also satisfies the interest in international performances that has increased over the past few years and has led to surprise nominations for Marina de Tavira, among others.

Which Other Actors Will Fill Out The Other Spots?

So here is where we stand after the previous two sections:

Best Actress

Best Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

This leaves five slots to fill. Based on the first chart, it appears that four of those slots will be from performers that have two of the three precursor nominations and the fifth will come from someone with only one precursor nomination.

The most common path to an Oscar nomination with 2 precursors is to have SAG and Critics Choice nominations, which 27 people have done before and have had a 67.5% success rate. Similarly, having only a SAG nomination has the highest success rate of all the paths for someone with 1 precursor (25%). However, it is most common to go from a Critics Choice nomination to an Oscar.

Let’s take a look at who else is vying for these last spots.

Since Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) has the most frequently occuring path to a nomination that also has the highest success rate, let’s consider him in. This means we are looking for 1 more nominee for each category.

Among the other actors in the 2 nominee camp, Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) feels the most safe. The SAGs often ignore more international performances and she’s one of the major stories of the awards season. If anything, this snub coupled with Anatomy of a Fall’s strong Golden Globes showing should galvanize voters for Hüller. This fills up Best Actress, knocking out Annette Bening (who they likely will snub until they give her an overdue win) and Greta Lee (who seems closer towards a nomination than Bening).

The remaining two spots will come from either a May December duo (Julianne Moore, Charles Melton), Poor Things duo (Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo) or Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon). DiCaprio is very vulnerable, but if we are predicting Domingo to be a surprise miss, then the most likely person to replace him is Leonardo DiCaprio. If anything, May December is faltering at the exact wrong moment leading up to nominations. This also coincides with Poor Things only growing in popularity. The final slot in Supporting Actor will go to either Melton, Dafoe or Ruffalo. Though my heart lies with Melton, who gives one of my favorite performances of the year, my head is putting the safe money on Willem Dafoe, an Oscar favorite.

So that leaves Supporting Actress for the final slot and three women who could fill that position - Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) and America Ferrera (Barbie). The only real Best Picture possibility is Barbie, so America Ferrera is very much in the race. However, I’m predicting Penelope Cruz after her surprise SAG nomination. Academy voters love her and the role is a big, scenery chewing showcase. This is a great example of looking at “Most” acting, rather than “Best.”

What’s My Predicted Lineup?

Best Actress

Best Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Who do you think will be snubbed at the Oscars? Are there any surprise nominees you are predicting or rooting for?


 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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