by Elisa Giudici
As the Venice Film Festival draws to a close, the time has come to reflect on the competition, predict who will claim the prestigious Golden Lion, and consider which films will carry momentum into Oscar season. Above all, it's time to think about what will truly remain from this year's edition.
Overall Festival Impressions
Last year’s festival lacked consistency, with a mix of standout films and titles that induced sheer embarrassment. This year, however—thanks in part to a much stronger and more compelling Italian contingent—the competition has been far more solid, with only a couple of notable failures and several standout films. In fact, considering the lackluster showing at Cannes this year, Venice could very well take the title of Festival of the Year. The event is anchored by The Brutalist by Brady Corbet, a monumental work operating on a level unmatched by any other film this year. Almodóvar, Guadagnino, Salles, and Bing have also impressed...
On the revelation front, two female directors delivered standout films. Vermiglio, a gem from Maura Delpero, and Babygirl by Dutch filmmaker Halina Reijn confirm the promise of their earlier work. Meanwhile, Dag Johan Haugerud’s film is a masterclass in scriptwriting, speaking to contemporary issues like no other.
The one glaring disappointment? Todd Phillips’ Joker: Folie à Deux. A project that has not only spiraled out of control but is also mind-numbingly dull.
Personal Favorites
Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson in "Babygirl" (Credit: Niko Tavernise)
Setting The Brutalist aside—which, as mentioned, stands in a class of its own—the film that truly electrified me this year was Halina Reijn’s Babygirl. This film is poised to make waves much like The Substance did at Cannes, and it stands as one of the most exciting entries of the festival.
A sigh of relief comes for Italian filmmakers, especially the women. Maura Delpero's Vermiglio—an emotionally gripping Little Women set in the Italian mountains during World War I—will surely win over fans of Alice Rohrwacher.
As for personal favorites, two auteurs I admire greatly—Pedro Almodóvar and Luca Guadagnino—did not disappoint. Both delivered deeply personal films, proving their continued willingness to challenge themselves.
KJAERLIGHET (LOVE) © Motlys_K1
The true surprise of the festival, though, came from Norwegian director Dag Johan Haugerud’s Love, a deeply introspective look at relationships and intimacy that reassures us that a more gentle, considerate form of love is possible.
The series presented at the Lido also made a strong impression this year. Alfonso Cuarón’s Disclaimer received standing ovations, while M. Il figlio del secolo, a series chronicling Mussolini's rise to power, captivated audiences and is bound to be one of the most talked-about shows in 2025.
Golden Lion Predictions: Who Will Win?
The frontrunner for the Golden Lion is The Brutalist. It’s not just the standout film of the festival; it also has a distribution deal with Universal, which is eager to kickstart its Oscar campaign with a Venice victory, much like they did with Poor Things last year.
Festival director Alberto Barbera is likely to champion The Brutalist as well. He can rightfully claim to have nurtured 36-year-old Brady Corbet's career at the Lido. When no one wanted to take a chance on this long (215 minutes), challenging (70mm, shot on film) project, Barbera fought to have it included in competition, giving it the showcase it needed to shine. A win for The Brutalist would be a feather in Barbera’s cap, solidifying the Lido as the premier stage for ambitious and difficult films. It would set a precedent, encouraging future filmmakers to bring their most challenging projects to Venice in hopes of becoming “the next The Brutalist.”
If The Brutalist doesn’t win, the field becomes wide open. Considering the jury’s makeup and the strength of the competition, the focus could shift to two other titles. The last-minute favorite, according to festival buzz, is Pedro Almodóvar. Despite his long and illustrious career, he has never won a major festival award. His English-language debut, centered around illness and more emotionally moving than daring, could finally secure him the recognition he deserves.
If the jury takes a more conservative approach, the Golden Lion might go to Ainda estou aqui by Brazilian director Walter Salles. It’s a solid, conventional film based on a true story set during Brazil’s military dictatorship, which could appeal to a more traditional sensibility.
Who Will Win the Volpi Cup?
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR
There are several strong contenders for the Volpi Cup, awarded to the best performances of the festival. The rules dictate that the winner of the Volpi Cup cannot also win the Golden Lion, so The Brutalist could still be honored through its lead actor, Adrien Brody. This would provide the jury with an easy way to acknowledge the film's brilliance without awarding it the top prize. And Brody, who has delivered the standout performance of the festival, would be a deserving recipient.
If The Brutalist claims the Golden Lion, leaving Brody out of the running, the favorite for Best Actor becomes Vincent Lindon. His performance as a father struggling with his son’s attraction to the far right in Jouer avec le feu, directed by Delphine and Muriel Coulin, is powerful. With Isabelle Huppert on the jury, it’s hard to imagine French cinema walking away empty-handed, and Lindon’s beloved status within the festival circuit makes him a strong contender. Also worth watching is Daniel Craig, who takes on a toxic love affair and some intense homoerotic scenes in Luca Guadagnino’s Queer.
On the women’s side, two actresses stand out. The frontrunner is Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres for her role as the courageous wife and mother Eunice Paiva in Ainda estou aqui. It’s a commanding, emotional performance central to the film. However, don’t discount Georgian actress Ia Sukhit'ashvili, who gives an uncompromising, fearless performance as a midwife in April, one of the most divisive and auteur-driven films in the competition, produced by Guadagnino. Almodóvar’s duo, Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton, are also strong possibilities.
For the Mastroianni Award, which recognizes the best debut performance, Italy might score a win. The young cast of Vermiglio by Maura Delpero could take home this honor. The film has been one of the surprise highlights of the festival—who knows, it might even snag a bigger prize.
Toto Leone 2024: Final Predictions
As we approach the final ceremony of the Venice Film Festival, here are my predictions for the awards:
Adrien Brody in THE BRUTALIST
If The Brutalist Wins the Golden Lion:
- Golden Lion: The Brutalist
- Grand Jury Prize: The Room Next Door
- Special Jury Prize: Queer
- Best Director: Wang Bing for Youth Homecoming
- Best Screenplay: Dag Johan Haugerud for Love
- Best Actor: Vincent Lindon for Jouer avec le feu
- Best Actress: Fernanda Torres for Ainda estou aqui
- Premio Mastroianni (Young Actor Award): Paul Kircher for Leurs enfants après eux
If The Brutalist Doesn't Win:
- Golden Lion: The Room Next Door
- Grand Jury Prize: The Brutalist
- Special Jury Prize: Vermiglio
- Best Director: Dea Kulumbegashvili for April
- Best Screenplay: Dag Johan Haugerud for Love
- Best Actor: Vincent Lindon for Jouer avec le feu
- Best Actress: Fernanda Torres for Ainda estou aqui
- Premio Mastroianni (Young Actor Award): Paul Kircher for Leurs enfants après eux
Fun Miscellanea from the Festival:
Daniel Craig and Drew Starkey in QUEER (photo: Yannis Drakoulidis)
- The Animals: Diva futura takes the prize for the most animals in a single film—23 cats, dozens of rabbits, goats, and a python named Tinta. In Guadagnino’s Queer, Lesley Manville’s pet is a sloth. Meanwhile, in Leurs enfants après eux, a dog sniffs cocaine. The most adorable pet of the competition, however, belongs to the Paiva family in Ainda estou aqui, though his fate is less than cheerful.
- It’s Always Christmas: Some of the films set during the holidays this year in Venice include Babygirl, Wolfs, Diva Futura, Vermiglio, Stranger Eyes, and Youth Homecoming.
- Trend Alert: Sex is Back! After several years of restrained sexuality on screen, this year marked a triumphant return of kinky, queer, and often scandalous love scenes. Even former James Bond Daniel Craig performs his first on-screen blowjob, while Nicole Kidman, dissatisfied with Antonio Banderas, takes things to the next level with Harris Dickinson. It’s safe to say this edition of the festival was one of the horniest ever. War films also made a major comeback, with many stories set during or just after WWI and WWII, along with films in the collateral sections focusing on the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine conflicts.
- Best WTF Moment: In April, the protagonist Nina asks a stranger to “lick it,” to which he responds by slamming her head on the car horn. In El Jockey, a man walks around with a cart containing a live rabbit inside a portable oven. Why? Who knows.
- Best Sex Scene: This year, it’s hard to choose, but Daniel Craig's gentle caresses of Drew Starkey’s god-like, indifferent body will leave no one unmoved. And don’t forget Harris Dickinson, who orders “on your knees” while exploring the power dynamics of desire to the tune of George Michael’s Father Figure.
A Little More to Come
Stay tuned for more updates before I return to Italy. Thanks for reading!