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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

 

AND THE NOMINEES ARE...
(SCROLL DOWN FOR ADDITIONAL CHARTS)

 

COSTUME DESIGN

THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS
Mary Zophres
(3rd nomination)

★ BLACK PANTHER
Ruth E Carter
(3rd nomination)

THE FAVOURITE
Sandy Powell
(13th nom | 3 wins)

MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Sandy Powell
(14th nom | 3 wins)

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
Alexandra Byrne
(5th nom | 1 win)

 
How'd They Get Nominated?
Oscar finally noticed Zophres this decade so they've kept on noticing her since. Best guess is that it was the Zoe Kazan pioneer sequence and the finale inside the stagecoach Best Picture heat plus the year's most vibrant costuming. It's got a smart push pull of history and futurism and the colors and patterns and accesories. Oh my.  Best Picture heat, her reputation as queen of costuming, and glorious work from the severe beauty of the color palette to the mix of anachronistic fabrics/techniques with period silhouettes. Most costuming, her reputation as queen of costuming, plus a fun new but not too new take on an iconic character, and most especially the painted costumes of the animated sequences which really wow. Oscar's costuming branch really loves stories about queens. Byrne is well known to them, and despite having told this story before (in ElizabethGolden Age) her work here is fresh to this interpretation.

POLL

 

 

What Will Win?

Oscar voters can get lazy in this category so there's always a chance Mary Queen of Scots surprises as its exactly the kind of movie that often wins costume design but our guess is this year's battle is between Sandy Powell's gorgeous cutting work in The Favourite and Ruth E Carter's vibrant secret African culture with Black Panther just barely ekeing this one out. 

 

What Should Win?

Same as the two that might win. They'd both be worthy winners but since Powell already has 3 Oscars why not Black Panther

 

What Was Left Out?

Though we suspected Mary Zophres was a threat for Buster Scruggs (we had her in 7th place), Julian Day (who has yet to be nominated) seemed like a bigger threat for Bohemian Rhapsody given the hoopla for the film. There is also a significant lack of Colleen Atwood who, like Powell, is usually a given and won the last time she was costuming a Fantastic Beasts film. Meanwhile we'll just be over hearing mourning at the lack of contemporary costuming because  the work on A Simple Favor was more than deserving.


Trivia on These Nominees

• Sandy Powell has only ever won when nominated against Oscar's OTHER favourite current designer Colleen Atwood. And Atwood isn't nominated this year.

• Ruth E Carter is tied with both Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer as the most Oscar-nominated black woman of all time. They each have three nominations and if Carter wins this year they'll each have the same exact Oscar record: 3 nominations / 1 win

• The original Mary Poppins was also up for Best Costume Design (by Tony Walton) but it lost (to My Fair Lady)

Black Panther is the first superhero film to receive a costume design nomination as hard as that is to believe, especially with Batman Returns (1992) having existed!

 

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

COLD WAR
Lukasz Zal (2nd nomination)

 

THE FAVOURITE
Robbie Ryan
(1st nomination)

NEVER LOOK AWAY
Caleb Deschanel (6th nomination)

★ ROMA
Alfonso Cuaron (1st nomination and win in this category)

 

A STAR IS BORN
Matthew Libatique
(2nd nomination)

 
How'd they get nominated?
 Glorious and glamorous black and white - so many shades of gray -- and somehow being even more stunning to look at  than his previous nomination, Ida We're guessing it was the beautiful dramatic candlelight - so rich within those dark interiors, rather than the fish eye lenses. Beautiful images (as always with Deschanel) and also because he's Caleb Deschanel and he still hasn't won a statue yet!  Cuarón decided to shoot it himself when his regular DP Emmanuel Lubezki wasn't available. Lubezki consulted and that black and white is hypnotically immersive. He's arguably undervalued by Oscar so the Best Picture heat surely helped, as did the electrically shot concert footage. 
 

POLL

 

What Will Win?

 
What Should Win?
 
What Was Left Out?
 
Trivia on this category
 
 

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

★ BLACK PANTHER

Hannah Beachler
(1st nomination and 1st win) and Jay Hart (3rd nomination and 1st win)

THE FAVOURITE
Fiona Crombie
 and Alice Felton (first nominations)

FIRST MAN

Nathan Crowley 
(5th nomination) and Kathy Lucas (1st nomination)

MARY POPPINS RETURNS
John Myhre
(6th nomination |2 wins) and Gordon Sim (3rd nomination | 1 win)

ROMA
Eugenio Caballero
(2nd nom | 1 win) and Bárbara Enríquez (1st nomination)

 

 
How'd they get nominated?
World building within world buidling given Wakanda's Afro-futurism and its multiple tribes.  There are so many things to favourite: bi-level library/bedroom, upstairs/downstairs inequality in living chambers, rabbit cages, palace models Immersive reconstruction of NASA interiors, Floridian homes, and vulnerable spacecrafts and the whole film is gorgeous and pristine looking  Imaginative new sets and redone old ones. And probably for Big Ben double, the attic, and Cousin Topsy's home, too.   You are there recreation of Mexico City, 1970 from slums to well to do neighborhoods to old movie theater
 

POLL

 

What Will Win?

 
What Should Win?
 
What Was Left Out?
 
Trivia on this category
 
 

 

FILM EDITING - January 16th Predictions

Tier 1 - Prediction

BLACK KLANSMAN
Barry Alexander Brown (1st nomination in this category)

  ★ BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
John Ottman
(1st nomination and 1st win) 

THE FAVOURITE
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
(1st nomination)

 

 GREEN BOOK
Patrick J Don Vito
(1st nomination) 

 

VICE
Hank Corwin
(2nd nomination)

 
How'd they get nominated?
 Most Editing (in a good way) as Brown uses every trick and then some, commenting on cinema, uh, cinematically.  Presumably for the imagined Herculean task of getting something cohesive out of a notoriously troubled multi-director production?  Wonderful pacing, comic  rhythms, and attention to performance. Slomo and dissolves for extra electricity  Best Picture heat? Beyond that... Most Editing! They've nominated Corwin before for the heavy task of assembling McKay's scattershot train of thought comedies
 

POLL

 

What Will Win?

 What is this sinking feeling that we're looking at either Bohemian Rhapsody or Vice, two of the weaker Best Picture nominees as possible winners here?

 

What Should Win?

 BlacKkKlansman or The Favourite , and it shouldn't even be a contest... except for between these two.

 

What Was Left Out?

 Where is A Star is Born? Seems like an egregious omission given the energy and pacing of the thing, particularly its first half and those thrilling musical montages, and fine attention to modulation of performance.

 

Trivia on this category

 
 

 

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
 DanDeLeeuw (2nd nom), Kelly Port (1st nom), Russell Earl (4th nom), and Dan Sudick (9th nom)

 

CHRISTOPHER ROBIN

Chris Lawrence (3rd nom | 1 win), Mike Eames (1st nom), Theo Jones (1st nom), Chris Corbould (5th nom | 1 win)

 

★ FIRST MAN
Paul Lambert (2nd nom | 2nd win), Ian Hunter (2nd nom | 2nd win), Tristan Myles (1st nom and win), JD Schwalm (1st nom and win)

READY PLAYER ONE 
Roger Guyett (5th nom), Grady Cofer (1st nom), Matthew E Butler (2nd nom), David Shirk (2nd nom | 1 win)

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
Rob Bredow (1st nom), Patrick Tubach (3rd nom), Neal Scanlan (4th nom | 1 win), Dominic Tuohy (1st nom)

 
How'd they get nominated?
Manic superpowered mayhem, but mostly for Thanos and The Snappening Resurrections of beloved characters as childhood stuffed animals come to life. You are there versimilitude of space adventures and beautiful practical effects  CGI mayhem.   They've only ever passed over one Star Wars movie when it came to visual effects. 
 

POLL

 

 

What Will Win?

 With Black Panther not nominated (which would have won from sheer force of love for the movie itself) it's a tough call. Our guess is its between First Man (a place for those who love it to rally) and Avengers Infinity War.  But we're guessing First Man because, as hard as this is to believe, superhero films almost never win here.

 

What Should Win?

 Avengers Infinity War -- a win there would be extra sweet, too, since it's the only nominated group where not one person has previously won an Oscar. And look what they did! 

 

What Was Left Out?

 We're not sad about Black Panther missing (given the rubbery climax) but its still a surprise exclusion. But how did Annihilation not even make the finals? 

 

Trivia on this category

First Man's effects team was largely pulled from recent beauties like Interstellar and Blade Runner 2049

• As weird as this is to relate superhero movies almost never win the Oscar for visual effects. The only times that has ever happened were with Superman (1978) and Spider-Man 2 (2004). Isn't that strange?

 

 

 

MAKEUP AND HAIR

 

BORDER
Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer (first nominations!)

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

Jenny Shircore (3rd nom | 1 win), Marc Pilcher (1st nom), and Jessica Brooks (1st nom)

★ VICE
Greg Cannom (10th nom | 4 wins), Kate Biscoe (1st nom and 1st win), and Patricia deHaney (1st nom and 1st win)
 
 
How'd they get nominated?
  Superb character prosthetics. And the actors can act through them. Queen Elizabeth's chicken pox and resulting ghost face, and those crazy hairstyles  Makeup work to transform hairlines, neck thickness, and more to make Bale look like Cheney  
 

POLL

 

 

What Will Win?

 Vice

 

What Should Win?

 Border

 

What Was Left Out?

 Suspiria because Oscar's makeup branch rarely goes for horror

 

Trivia on this category

 The only previous winners nominated are Jenny Shircore (who won the last time she worked on this story via Elizabeth: The Golden Age) and Greg Cannom who previously won for Benjamin Button, Mrs Doubtfire, and, most impressively, Bram Stoker's Dracula