The Writers Guild of America nominations are always interesting to look at -- we love discovering what other writers admire -- but they are greatly overvalued in terms of Oscar prognostication. The tricky part is remembering what's not eligible. The Academy doesn't require you to be a member to receive nominations for your cinematic achievement. Some guilds do and the Writers Guild is notoriously strict about qualification. So several key Oscar-seeking movies were NOT eligible for these honors.
Bridesmaids won a WGA nomination but the Oscar shortlist is far more competitive.
Not Eligible, Therefore We Know Nothing About Their Oscar Prospects:
(Original) Take Shelter, Martha Martha Marcy May Marlene, Beginners, The Artist, Shame, Margin Call, The Iron Lady, Rango, Melancholia, and Like Crazy
(Adapted) Drive, My Week With Marilyn, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Jane Eyre, Carnage, Albert Nobbs, and The Skin I Live In
... and quite a few of those -- especially the originals -- seem like definite threats in the Oscar Screenplay races.
The WGA Nominations (Three Categories) are AFTER THE JUMP
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- 50/50 - Will Reiser
- Bridesmaids - Annie Mumulo and Kristen Wiig
- Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen
- Win Win - Thomas McCarthy
- Young Adult - Diablo Cody
Eligible but not nominated: Tree of Life
What Does it Mean? Good news for all of these nominees surely but with so many major Oscar contenders left on the ineligibility list it's still a super tight race for Oscar's short list. Give the industry love for Bridesmaids, and that writers are less averse to comedy achievements than other branches, you'd think it was a strong contender but I'm guessing that the improv heavy nature of the film -- amply evident in the DVD extras -- might give some writers pause about honoring it with an Oscar nomination, as funny as it is.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- The Descendants -Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash; Based on the novel by Kaui Hart Hemming
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo -Steven Zaillian; Based on the novel by Stieg Larsson
- The Help -Tate Taylor; Based on the novel by Kathryn Stockett
- Hugo -John Logan; Based on the book The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick
- Moneyball - Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin; Based on the book by Michael Lewis
Eligible but not nominated: Extremely Loud, The Ides of March, War Horse
What Does it Mean for Oscar? That's very bad news for the eligible snubbees since most major contenders were eligible. That's very good news for Dragon Tattoo which might be more of a threat than we thought. The others are very expected choices. This list could theoretically repeat with Oscar, since most of the major exclusions in terms of eligibility are in the Original Screenplay race. But I still think Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is a major threat here.
DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
For some reason there are six nominees in this category this year.
- Better This World -Katie Galloway & Kelly Duane de la Vega
- If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front -Marshall Curry and Matthew Hamachek
- Nostalgia for the Light -Patricio Guzmán
- Pina -Wim Wenders
- Position Among the Stars -Hetty Naaijkens-Retel Helmrich, Leonard Retel Helmrich
- Senna - Manish Pandey
Pina, a very enjoyable dance documentary, is the oddest choice here. It mostly consists of performances and interludes where dancers talk about what they learned working with Pina Bausch. Senna continues to do well in awards season despite the Oscar shut out.
Related: Oscar Screenplay Predictions