Nathaniel, popping in from a busy AFI schedule to gossip with you!
One of the best things about this annual trip to Los Angeles, besides meeting West Coast fans and spending time with rarely seen LA friends, is hearing the gossip around the Oscar campaigns and individual opinions on the movie. As I suspected Youth resonates with a lot of people in the industry. I've always thought the Oscar conversations on the internet are sleeping on this one because it's a) not in theaters yet and b) skews older than active rooting interests of typical online communities. Also extremely happy to report that people in town seem more confident in Charlotte Rampling's prospects for a 45 Years nomination than I have previously been. She's getting a tribute at the AFI and Kirsten Dunst is even hosting a party in her honor this weekend.
Now, one must always take every anecdote and opinion with a whole block of salt since one man's treasure is another's junk, some assumptions will always be proven wrong, and depending on who is talking there may be an agenda floating around, visible or well hidden. Here are some tidbits you may be interested in though keep in mind that it's all just hearsay after the jump...
• "working hard for it" - Blythe Danner (I'll See You In My Dreams)
• "wants it too much" - Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy)
• Pics to Beat: Spotlight, The Martian, Room... though people disagree on the order.
• [Confidence] "he/she's going to win!" - Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Brie Larson (Room)
• Can't get a bead on: Carol, Brooklyn and Bridge of Spies prospects. Most people I've spoken with really like them but I usually had to bring them up, rather than the other way around.
• Random Revenant conversations: "I'm hearing good things about Tom Hardy" and the typical "is it finally Leo's year?" the latter of which seems to have no connection to the actual movie. It's like a conversation that gets stuck on loop each year.
• Doesn't want to work for it but won't have to: Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
• Willing to work for it (as we've seen in the past) but possiblyt oo busy: Eddie Redmayne (Danish Girl)
• Not All That Surprising Rumor Except Maybe to the Internet: No one cares that Steve Jobs had trouble at the box office - the Academy likes it.
• Amusing Rumor: Joy still isn't close to being finished
• Less Amusing Rumor: Joy and Hateful Eight 'it's 'fine'... not great'
• Walton Goggins as "The Sheriff" is the MVP of Hateful Eight (heard this from multiple sources: I'll add him to the next supporting chart update!)
• Johnny Depp still in it -- people apparently actually like Black Mass
• Total disagreements as to how much of a nomination threat they are: Carey Mulligan (Suffragette), Sir Ian McKellen (Mr Holmes), Lily Tomlin (Grandma), Joan Allen (Room -- perhaps I was wrong on this one, people. Apologies), Dame Maggie Smith (Lady in the Van), Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), and George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
P.S. Finally here are the movies that I haven't heard mentioned even once in conversation in any capacity which may or may not mean anything: Beasts of No Nation, Anomalisa, Inside Out, and Sicario