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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

SEPT 19th GUESSWORK

Tier 1 - Prediction

The top dozen or so all look quite formidable. The big question is whether or not Glenn Close's film is distributed in 2017. If it is, she's a threat to win. She's excellent in the film and it's a true star vehicle. But with such a stacked race much will depend on the early precursors for setting the tone of who gets unjustly ignored and who gets over-rewarded. With so many strong performances, we hope for some disagreement among precursors to show the breadth of quality out there.

If the release dates aren't pinned down, that's noted.

 

Sally Hawkins
40 yrs old | 24 films | 1 nomination
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

Oscar loves a mute character and she's utterly endearing (no surprise) in the film. Genre pieces can be tough sells for the staid Academy but everyone is falling for this beauty & beast style romantic fable. Her success earlier this year with Maudie will help.

 

Frances McDormand
59 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THREE BILLBOARDS
Oct 13th

REVIEWED

This biting dark comedy from Martin McDonagh was all the rage at TIFF and the enthusiasm could well transfer to Oscar voters. Everyone loves the acting by McDormand and Sam Rockwell in support.

 

Kate Winslet
41 yrs old | 37 films | 7 noms | 1 win
WONDER WHEEL
Dec 1st

 She plays the long suffering wife of a carousel operator in this drama set in Coney Island 1950s. Advance word on her performance is that it's major. Woody has directed many women to Oscar nods.

 

Annette Bening
58 yrs old | 31 films | 4 nominations
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
Qualifying?

Momentum from that near-miss with 20th Century Women? We shall see. Plus she's playing an Oscar winner (which worked for Blanchett) and the buzz is intriguing.

 

Dame Judi Dench
82 yrs old | 47 films | 7 noms | 1 win
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Sept 22nd

Reprising signature roles doesn't always lead to noms but it can: ask Blanchett, Weaver, Newman and Pacino. Oscar worships her. With both Dench and Streep in the mix as the default choice... who will prevail?

 
Tier 2 - Also totally conceivable as nominees

Glenn Close
70 yrs old | 40 films | 6 nominations
THE WIFE
Qualifying or 2018?

REVIEWED

If this didn't have a distribution question hanging over it I'd consider her locked for a nomination. It's her best work in 20 years as a woman questioning her marriage when her husband wins the Nobel

Emma Stone

28 yrs old | 22 films | 2 noms | 1 win
BATTLE OF THE SEXES 
Sept 22nd

 Stone is winning warm reviews for this fun role (tennis great Billie Jean King). I would not count her out easily during her victory lap. Especially since Billie Jean King herself is promoting it

Meryl Streep

67 yrs old | 54 films | 20 noms | 3 wins
THE POST
Dec 22nd

 Spielberg fast-tracked this film about the Washington Post. Streep is always a threat even if Spielberg films are no slam dunks for acting nods. Currently the buzz is elsewhere though that could easily change.

Saoirse Ronan
23 yrs old | 18 films | 2 nominations
LADY BIRD
Nov 10th

REVIEWED

If nominated she'll be the second actress to get 3 noms by 23 (the first was JLaw). Early reviews for the film are great but Oscar can be fussy about stories about adolescents and stories about women and this is both.

Diane Kruger
41 yrs old | 34 films | never nominated
IN THE FADE
Qualifying?

She won Best Actress at Cannes for this and she's an international star. If critics rally and she works her wonders on the red carpet...

 
Tier 3 - Longer Shots

Michelle Williams
ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Dec 8th

 Much will depend on whether the film has power in other categories (given how tight this field is) but you can usually count on her to deliver dramatic punch

 

Margot Robbie
never nominated
I, TONYA
Qualifying ?

REVIEWED

 The film made waves during festival month and is a crowd pleaser. Golden Globe comedy feels like a given for nominations but Oscar will be tougher.

 Daniela Vega
unknown yrs old | 2 films | never nominated
A FANTASTIC WOMAN
Nov 17th 

This transgender actress has already won raves for this film from the director of the great woman's picture / character study Gloria. In a weaker Best Actress year one could see this happening

Jessica Chastain
40 yrs old | 23 films | 2 nominations
MOLLY'S GAME
Nov 22nd

Appears to be more of a commercial play but you never know. Miss Sloane part two for badass Jess lovers. But this year is just so competitive. Can she find a way in?

Salma Hayek
51 yrs old | 44 films | 1 nomination
BEATRIZ AT DINNER
June 9th

An early bird possibility. The film was an arthouse success and Hayek is a well liked very famous actor. Critics would have to rally, though, and a  Golden Globe nod is an absolute must to put some wind in this sail.

 
Tier 4- Will have their fans

WILL THEY GET A RELEASE IN 2017

  • Jessica Chastain - WOMAN WALKS AHEAD
  • Penelope Cruz - LOVING PABLO
  • Isabelle Huppert - MRS HYDE
  • Helen Mirren - THE LEISURE SEEKER
  • Carey Mulligan - WILD LIFE

FELL OFF CHART

  • Claire Foy - BREATHE
  • Sally Hawkins - MAUDIE
  • Debra Winger - THE LOVERS
  • Nicole Kidman - THE BEGUILED
  • Brie Larson - THE GLASS CASTLE
  • Lois Smith - MARJORIE PRIME
  • Rachel Weisz - MY COUSIN RACHEL
  • Charlize Theron - ATOMIC BLONDE

MOVED TO 2018

  • Emma Thompson - THE CHILDREN ACT
  • Rooney Mara -  MARY MAGDALENE
  • Charlize Theron - TULLY

Gal Gadot
32 yrs old | 12 films | never nominated
WONDER WOMAN
June 2

REVIEWED

 If Warner Bros pushes hard you might seem some zeitgeist box-office fueled enthusiasm. A Globe nomination would be a major get and something they should aim for.

Jennifer Lawrence
26 yrs old | 21 films | 4 noms | 1 win
MOTHER!
Oct 13th

REVIEWED

Aronofsky's nightmare allegorical thriller is divisive but the Academy is in love with Jennifer Lawrence. That will win her at least some votes. Not her year, though.