Welcome

The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. All material herein is written and copyrighted by Nathaniel or a member of our team as noted.

 

Powered by Squarespace
Don't Miss This!
Comment Fun

Marriage Story Review

"They're saying this is for Adam Driver what Kramer vs Kramer was for Dustin Hoffman. More about him than about her.  Scarlett, to me, is the open question. By now it's Driver vs Phoenix for best actor." - Melchiades - Andrew

"Mini-shutout to Alda, whom I loved and thought did absolute wonders in his what, 3 or 4 scenes. Great review!" -Alex

Keep TFE Strong

We're looking for 500... no 461 Patron SaintsIf you read us daily, please be one.  Your suscription dimes make an enormous difference. Consider...

I ♥ The Film Experience

THANKS IN ADVANCE

Interviews

recent

Directors (For Sama)
Lulu Wang (The Farewell)
Ritesh Batra (Photograph)
Schmidt & Abrantes (Diamantino)
Jia Zhang-ke (Ash is Purest White)

What'cha Looking For?
Subscribe

 Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress |  Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural |Animation 

92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

SEPTEMBER 21st PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction SEPT 21st

Given that nearly everyone in competition this year feels vulnerable for some reason perhaps it will be volatile moving into precursor season? 

Renée Zellweger
49 yrs old
3 noms | 1 win
JUDY
(Roadside)
Sept 27th

 

 
Voters love famous actors playing famous people. RZ will have easy "comeback" narrative. VULNERABILITY: a second win when she hasn't had much of a career since her first seems excessive. 

Scarlett Johansson
34 yrs old | never nominated
MARRIAGE STORY
(Neon)
Nov 6th

 

Scarlett has now become so underrated that she qualifies as a "I didn't know she had that in her" surprise despite delivering lots of strong work outside of superhero movies. VULNERABILITY: Driver and Dern have showier roles

Cynthia Erivo
32 yrs old | never nominated
HARRIET
(Focus)
Nov 1st

 Though the movie is disappointing it's the Erivo show from start to finish so she probably won't be harmed by a (presumed) lackluster response to the movie. VULNERABILITY: The movie itself. 

Charlize Theron
43 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
BOMBSHELL
(Lionsgate)
Dec 20th

Voters love famous actors playing famous people. The story is timely and Lithgow as co-star but she's been passed over for brilliant work  so the movie will need to strike a chord.  VULNERABILITY: late release and international competition for Best in Show

 

Saoirse Ronan
25 yrs old | 3 noms
LITTLE WOMEN
(Columbia)
Dec 25th

 We already know that Oscar loves this role (see Winona Ryder in 1994) and its a classic for a reason. VULNERABILITY: It's also a remake or a remake. A fourth nomination by 25? Only one person (JLaw) has ever done that.

 

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be These Five

Meryl Streep
69 yrs old | 21 noms | 3 wins
THE LAUNDROMAT
(Netflix)
Release TBA

 

 

No other actor finds it easier to snag nods VULNERABILITY: Playing a Panamian woman isn't going to fly in today's harsher environment for racially inappropriate casting. Also might be going supporting.

Alfre Woodard
66 yrs old | 1 nomination
CLEMENCY
(Neon)
Dec 27th

 

She's an enduring actor's actor that people love. 36 years since her first nom (!) so she'd get a lot of welcome back media love VULNERABILITY: Post Christmas releases generally have trouble stirring up heat quickly enough for nominations.

 

Lupita Nyong'o
36 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
US
(Universal)
March 22nd

 

She's brilliant in the film and, more importantly given the early release, super memorable. VULNERABILITY: Anti-genre bias within the actor's branch. Plus can Universal revive interest for a leading Oscar bid?

Awkwafina
29 yrs old | never nominated
THE FAREWELL
(A24)
July 12th

 Oscar loves it when "funny" actors get serious and the film is a breakout arthouse hit. VULNERABILITY: But Oscar has always resisted Asian actors (sigh) and it's a fairly subtle performance which sometimes doesn't work with Oscar voters.

Jodie Turner Smith
32 yrs old | never nominated
QUEEN & SLIM
(Universal)
Nov 27th

 

 Hollywood will be paying attention given the director's buzz and Kaluuya as co-star. Could be the year's breakout if the film isnt too divisive. VULNERABILITY: Very possible that the film receives no awards buzz at all.

 

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...
  • Bell - Brittany Runs a Marathon
  • Byrne - The Souvenir
  • Haenel - Portrait of a Lady...
  • Moss - Her Smell
  • Place - Diane
  • Pugh -Midsommar
  • Thompson - Late Night

 

Julianne Moore
58 yrs old | 5 noms | 1 win
GLORIA BELL
(A24)
March 22nd

She's delightful in the movie VULNERABILITY: but that super early release... unless the Globes revive interest with a Comedy nod (though it's largely a drama with comic moments) it will be forgotten.

Helen Mirren
73 yrs old | 4 noms | 1 win
THE GOOD LIAR
(Warner Bros)
Nov 15th

 She's had automatic awards runs for most of her projects, whether or not the performance was noteworthy and early buzz on this is good. VULNERABILITY: Reportedly more of a showcase for McKellen.

Felicity Jones
35 yrs old | 1 nomination
THE AERONAUTS
(Amazon)
Dec 6th

Initially the buzz seemed promising for this oddly retro gamble -- a hot air balloon survival drama --VULNERABILITY: Amazon appears to have gotten cold feet pulling back on release plans . A lack of studio confidence is rarely a good Oscar omen

Constance Wu
37 yrs old | never nominated
HUSTLERS
(STX)
Sept 13th

 

She cries a lot which Oscar voters love and it's as sympathetic as criminal roles get. VULNERABILITY: It's hard to think about anyone other than Jennifer Lopez while watching the movie.