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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

December 25th Predictions

Tier 1 - Prediction

The top five are looking set... but why do we still suspect Judi Dench is coming for one of these ladies in a surprise triumph (nomination only of course) via her return to the role that netted her her very first nomination back in the day.

Frances McDormand
60 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THREE BILLBOARDS
Oct 13th

Role: an angry grieving mother who has issues with her town and the police force

Wins: --
Noms: Spirit | BIFA | Critics Choice SAG  | Globe

REVIEWED 

The film has been doing tremendously well in the precursors and McDormand powers both its dark angry drama and its comic bite.

Margot Robbie
27 yrs old | 13 films | never nominated
I, TONYA
Dec 8th

Role: Olympic figure skater Tonya Harding, forever scandalous

Wins: --
Noms: Gotham | Spirit   | Critics Choice SAG  | Globe

REVIEWED

 Oscar doesn't like to go without an ingenue or a first timer in this category and she's the one. Plus they love a biographical picture.

Saoirse Ronan
23 yrs old | 18 films | 2 noms
LADY BIRD
Nov 3rd

Role: A precocious senior who keeps falling in love and fighting with her mom while planning her escape from Sacramento

Wins: Gotham | NYFCC
Noms: Spirit   | Critics Choice  SAG | Globe

REVIEWED

If nominated she'll be the second actress to get 3 noms by 23 (the first was JLaw). She's wonderful in the film but Oscar can be fussy about stories about adolescents and women.

Sally Hawkins 

41 yrs old | 24 films | 1 nomination
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 1st

Role: a mute cleaning woman who falls in love with a secret government "assett" a creature of the sea

Wins: LAFCA
Noms: Critics Choice SAG  | Globe

Oscar loves a mute character and she's utterly endearing (no surprise) in the film. Genre pieces can be tough sells for the staid Academy but everyone is falling for this beauty & beast style romantic fable.

Meryl Streep
68 yrs old | 54 films | 20 noms | 3 wins
THE POST
Dec 22nd

Role: Katharine Graham taking her newspaper, the Washington Post public just as a major press threatening scandal erupts

Wins: NBR
Noms: Critics Choice |  Globe

 The characters passive nature might hurt the Oscar chances of someone NOT named Meryl Streep. The SAG miss was probably a fluke. Unless Dench rises, she's in.
 
Tier 2 - Possible Spoilers

Dame Judi Dench

82 yrs old | 47 films | 7 noms | 1 win
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Sept 22nd

Role: Queen Victoria upsets her government with a friendship with an Indian Muslim

Wins: --
Noms: SAG  | Globe

Reprising signature roles doesn't always lead to noms but it can: ask Blanchett, Weaver, Newman and Pacino. Oscar worships her. With both Dench and Streep in the mix as AMPAS default choices though this is less of a slam dunk than it might have been.

Jessica Chastain
40 yrs old | 23 films | 2 nominations
MOLLY'S GAME
Dec 27th

Role: Molly Bloom, a skier sidelined by an injury because a major player in illegal poker games. Will she give up her client names to the government?

Wins:
Noms: Critics Choice  | Globe

 Miss Sloane part two for badass Jess lovers. She's certainly getting the press and if this year weren't so competitive she'd probably be in. Because who could she possibly take out?

 

Annette Bening
59 yrs old | 31 films | 4 nominations
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
Dec 29th

Role: Oscar winning femme fatale Gloria Grahame returns to her younger lover's home in her final days with cancer

Wins: --
Noms: --

That near-miss with 20th Century Women still stings.  Playing an Oscar winner (which worked for Blanchett) and older voters might especially love thinking about Gloria Grahame's former glory and fall from stardom

 

 

Vote Siphoning From Other Leading Ladies of 2017...

  • Stone - BATTLE OF SEXES Globe Nom
  • Kruger - IN THE FADE
  • Vega - A FANTASTIC WOMAN
  • Williams - ALL THE MONEY Globe Nom
  • Winslet - WONDER WHEEL
  • Gadot - WONDER WOMAN
  • Hayek - BEATRIZ AT DINNER
  • Krieps - PHANTOM THREAD
  • Prince - FLORIDA PROJECT Gotham Nom
  • Pugh - LADY MACBETH -BIFA Nom
  • Hawkins - MAUDIE
  • Mirren - LEISURE SEEKERS Globe Nom