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Oscar Predictions
FOR THE 90th ACADEMY AWARDS FOR THE 2017 FILM YEAR / 2018 OSCAR CEREMONY

On the chart below you'll see current April Foolish Predictions as well as a note under each category on how accurate my crystal ball tends to be this early (i.e. a year prior before we've seen barely any of the films). Try it sometime and keep the record. It's actually quite difficult before the films begin to screen!)

Clicking on category titles will take you to that chart page for more details and alternative contenders. Discuss the Oscar race on the blog

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ALL OSCAR RACE ARTICLES

 

BEST PICTURE

Current War

Darkest Hour

Detroit

Dunkirk

Get Out

Greatest Showman

Killing of a Sacred Deer

Mudbound

The Snowman

Wonderstruck
 


Last year I scored my best score since the expansion of the Best Picture field with 5 of the 9 guessed a year in advance. WOW, ME.

 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Bigelow
Detroit

Haynes
Wonderstruck

Lanthimos
Killing of a Sacred Deer

Nolan
Dunkirk

Wright
Darkest Hour

I can almost always forsee 1 and sometimes 2 of the 5 players in this first round of predictions

BEST ACTOR

Fassbender
The Snowman

Garfield

Breathe

Gyllenhaal
Stronger

Jackman
Greatest Showman

Oldman
Darkest Hour 

My best score a year in advance was 4 of the 5 players (2015) but last year I only saw 2 of the 5 coming this early.

BEST ACTRESS

Bening
Film Stars...

Dench
Victoria & Abdul

Larson
Glass Castle

McDormand
Three Billboards...

Ronan
On Chesil Beach

A category I tend to overthink -- who, me? with best actress (whaaaa?) -- but I almost always get 1 or 2 right occasionally 3 this early in the guesswork

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brown
Marshall

Ford
Blade Runner 2049

Harrelson
Glass Castle

Mitchell
Mudbound

Shannon
Current War

last year I face-planted in this category correctly seeing NONE of the future nominees in the "april fools" round of predictions. But I can usually name 1 or 2 this early

SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Ferguson
Greatest Showman

Leo
The Novitiate

Moore
Wonderstruck

Scott Thomas
Darkest Hour

Watts 
Glass Castle 

The best I've ever scored is 3 of 5 a year in advance but generally it's either 1 or 2 in the predictions this early. So much depends on Best Picture in the supporting categories.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Darkest Hour

Detroit

Get Out

Killing of a Sacred Deer

Three Billboards Outside of...

A tough category a whole year in advance. My high score is 2 of 5 this early but I've scored everything from 0 to 2

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Call Me By Your Name

Glass Castle

Mudbound

The Snowman

Wonderstruck

2 of 5 a year in advance is a fairly consistent score.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Detroit

Dunkirk
 
Wonderstruck

For the past two years I've correctly guessed 3 of the 5 nominees a whole year in advance. One of my strongest sight unseen categories statistically as I rarely score below 2 of 5 in the first predictions in April.

COSTUME DESIGN  

Current War

Greatest Showman

Murder on...

Victoria and Abdul

Wonderstruck

Last year I guessed 2 of the 5 correctly this early. I alternate pretty consistently between 1 and 3 correct in my year in advance guesses

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Blade Runner 2049

Current War


Darkest Hour

Greatest Showman

Wonderstruck

My high score' in this category this early on is 2007 in which I guessed 4 of 5 but I manage 2 of 5 consistently a year in advance.

FILM EDITING

Detroit

Dunkirk

Get Out

The Snowman

Wonderstruck

I generally get 1 or 2 of these right a year in advance. I'm feeling good about 3 this year

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy 2

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Spider-Man: Homecoming

War of Planet of the Apes

Last year I managed to correctly guess 3 of the 5 nominees a whole year in advance.

MAKEUP & HAIR

Darkest Hour

Guardians Vol. 2

Logan

I generally manage to name 1 of the 3 this early but wow is this category ever difficult... even up until the last minute essentially.

FOREIGN FILM

Austria

France

Germany

Mexico

Norway

Randomly picking 5 countries though we dont know any films yet...for completist predictions sake

ORIGINAL SONG

 Just wild guesswork until we know which films have songs

Coco

Film Stars Don't Die...

Greatest Showman

Greatest Showman


The Star

In my year and advance predictions I generally only get 1 of these correct though I've scored 2 a few times

ORIGINAL SCORE

Darkest Hour
Marianelli

Dunkirk
Zimmer

The Last Jedi
Williams

Murder on the Orient Express
Doyle

Shape of Water
Desplat

Quite often I guess 2/5 correctly a year in advance. My best score with score is 3/5 in terms of april foolish predictions

SOUND MIXING

Bladerunner 2049

Detroit

Dunkirk

The Greatest Showman

The Last Jedi

My average score for Sound Mixing a year a head of time is 2 of 5

 

SOUND EDITING

 Bladerunner 2049

Detroit

Dunkirk

Guardians of Galaxy vol. 2

The Last Jedi 

I generally score 2 of 5 correct this far in advance but occasionally, like last year, only 1.

ANIMATED FILM

Breadwinner
(Cartoon Saloon / GKids)

Cars 3

(Pixar)

Coco
(Pixar)

Despicable Me 3

(Universal)

Ferdinand
(Blue Sky)

I generally guess 3 of 5 correctly a year in advance. Last year was my best score of all time guessing 4 of the 5 a whole year early. I missed only My Life as a Zucchini

         

DOCUMENTARY

 NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR

SHORTS, DOCUMENTARY

 NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR


SHORTS, LIVE ACTION

NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR 

SHORTS, ANIMATED

NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR 

 

 

 

sound off on the Oscar race

APRIL FOOLISH PREDICTED NOMINEE TALLY PER FILM

9 nominations
DARKEST HOUR

8 nominations
GREATEST SHOWMAN
WONDERSTRUCK

7 nominations
DETROIT
DUNKIRK

6 nominations
BLADE RUNNER 2049

4 nominations
CURRENT WAR
GLASS CASTLE
THE SNOWMAN
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

3 nominations
GET OUT
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2
KILLING OF A SACRED DEER
MUDBOUND

2 nominations
COCO
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE...
VICTORIA AND ABDUL 

1 nomination
BREADWINNER
BREATHE
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
CARS 3
DESPICABLE ME 3
FERDINAND
LOGAN
MARSHALL
THE NOVITIATE
ON CHESIL BEACH
SPIDERMAN HOMECOMING
THE STAR
STRONGER
WAR OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

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