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Months of Meryl: Adaptation 

"This film is in my all time great top 10. I love everything about it. The acting, the plot, the crazyness of life itself." - Sonja

"I'm not wild about the film - but Cooper is super and I'd be inclined to put this in Streep's top 5, maybe top 3, performances. It's so unexpected, and works perfectly. For a few years this was often the performance I first thought of when I thought of her." - Scott C

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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

PREDICTIONS AS OF JULY 7TH, 2018

Tier 1 - Prediction

(Statistics on these charts refer to directing category only and narrative features only (excluding docs, tv movies, shorts, etc) 

Damiene Chazelle
4 films | 1 nom | 1 win in this category

FIRST MAN
Universal
Oct 12th

His film seems the most traditionally Oscar ready on paper and Oscar has really taken to his style with major statues for two of his three pictures to date

Steve McQueen
48 yrs old | 4 films | 1 nom in this category

WIDOWS
Fox
Nov 16th

He has yet to make a film that was less than great. But will this crime drama have unexpected substance and more mainstream appeal than his films have traditionally had?

Adam McKay
50 yrs old | 7 films | 1 nom in this category

BACKSEAT
Annapurna
Dec 21st

He surprised with The Big Short and he's mainstream accessible. Can he win their hearts again with another politically minded film?

Spike Lee
61 yrs old | 24 films | 1 Honorary Oscar (never nom'ed in this category)

BLACKKKLANSMAN
Focus
Aug 10th

It's ridiculous that he was never nominated for Best Director. Will they rectify that slight with a career honor here for this buzzy picture or was the Honorary Oscar enough?

Felix van Groenigen

40 yrs old | 6 films | never nominated in this category (directed one foreign film nominee)

BEAUTIFUL BOY
Amazon 
Oct 12th

He could surprise but it could be the case where he's too little known to vault over the problem of "oh, it's an actor's film"

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Bradley Cooper

43 years old | debut as director


A STAR IS BORN
Warner Bros
Oct 5th

It's always tough to know when the directors branch will welcome in actors. There will be a backlash to this film (it's a musical with a female pop star - a backlash is to be expected) but If this film is a huge hit, watch out.

Yorgos Lanthimos

45 yrs old | 7 films | never nom'ed in this category

THE FAVOURITE
Fox Searchlight 
Nov 23rd

He feels 'on the verge' to us with foreign film and screenplay nods behind him

Ryan Coogler
32 yrs old | 3 films | never nominated

BLACK PANTHER
Disney/Marvel
Feb 16th

People are in awe of this particular success and there's also goodwill from Fruitvale Station and Creed. But might there also be some Marvel dominance resentment, too?

Mike Leigh
75 yrs old | 13 films | 2 noms in this category

PETERLOO
Amazon
Nov 9th

The directors branch admires him and if this one is slightly more accessible or epic than Mr Turner, it's definitely a film to keep an eye on.

Barry Jenkins
(1 nom in this category)
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Annapurna
Release TBA

He seems primed, post-Moonlight, to actually win this statue if he can capture lightning in a bottle a second time.

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Julian Schnabel
66 yrs old | 5 films | 1 nomination

AT ETERNITY'S GATE
CBS Films
Release TBA

Can he recapture that early magic he had with Before Night Falls and Diving Bell? If so, watch out.

Robert Zemeckis

66 yrs old | 19 films | 1 nom | 1 win

WELCOME TO MARWEN
Universal
Nov 21st

He always seems on the verge of a comeback but it never quite happens. This time?

Joel Edgerton
44 yrs old | 2 films | never nominated

BOY ERASED
Focus
Sept 28th

Another actor turned director this year. But even if he succeeds the directors branch isn't always eager to reward directors solely for being great with actors. They like scale, too. 

Alfonso Cuarón
56 yrs old | 8 films | 1 nom | 1 win in this category


ROMA
Netflix
Release TBA

If this return to Mexico feels like a passion project with depth, he could become a critical darling this year. That said he's already won and it's Netflix. 

Josie Rourke
41 yrs old | 2 films | never nominated

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
Focus
Dec 7th

She's a reknowned in the theater but will her skills transfer to cinema? Different mediums. Some talents transfer. Others do not. Always hard to know

 
Tier 3 - Other Directors of Interest With Films This Year

FRESH VOICES FOR 2018?

  • Ari Aster (debut feature) Hereditary
  • Robin Bissell (debut feature) Best of Enemies
  • Bo Burnham (debut feature) Eighth Grade
  • Joel Edgerton (debut feature) Boy Erased
  • Rachel Goldenberg (debut feature) Valley Girl
  • Marielle Heller (second feature) - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Steven Knight (third feature) - Serenity
  • John Krasinski (third feature) -A Quiet Place
  • Elizabeth Chomko (debut feature) - What They Had
  • Andy Serkis (second feature) - Mowgli

MORE FAMILIAR PLAYERS RETURNING IN 2018

  • Jacques Audiard (1 foreign film nomination) -The Sisters Brothers
    Asgar Farhadi
    (2 foreign film wins) - Nobody Knows
  • Lasse Hallström (2 previous nods in this category) - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
  • Mimi Leder (never nominated) - On the Basis of Sex
  • Sebastian Lelio (just won the foreign oscar) - Gloria
  • Rob Marshall (1 previous nod in this category) - Mary Poppins Returns
  • Jason Reitman (2 previous nods in this category) -The Front Runner and Tully
  • Robert Rodriguez - Alita: Battle Angel
  • Robert Zemeckis (1 nom and win in this category) The Women of Marwen