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Marriage Story Review

"They're saying this is for Adam Driver what Kramer vs Kramer was for Dustin Hoffman. More about him than about her.  Scarlett, to me, is the open question. By now it's Driver vs Phoenix for best actor." - Melchiades - Andrew

"Mini-shutout to Alda, whom I loved and thought did absolute wonders in his what, 3 or 4 scenes. Great review!" -Alex

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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

SEPTEMBER 30TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predictions

Quentin Tarantino
(2 noms in this category)
ONCE UPON A TIME IN...
Columbia
July 26th

Tarantino is always more likely in screenplay but if conversation revs back up he could lock up here. Given that he keeps threatening to retire, it's actually possible to imagine him winning, too.

Marielle Heller
(never nominated)
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Tri-Star
Nov 22nd

Momentum from last year + Oscar friendly topic + she's great with actors. All that and the film is more creative than you'd expect, too.

Bong Joon-Ho
(never nominated)
PARASITE
Neon
Oct 11th

That Palme d'Or transferred into ectastic responses at other festivals and the film will likely be a huge end of year presence in top ten lists. Plus Hollywood already knows him via Okja & Snowpiercer

Taika Waititi
(never nominated in this category)
JOJO RABBIT
Fox Searchlight
Nov 27th

Considerable career momentum and a delight when campaigning / promoting. Plus audiences respond to the film. Oscar might too despite the silliness

Martin Scorsese

(8 noms and 1 win in this category)
THE IRISHMAN 
Netflix
Release TBA

Legend. He'll be in contention for the nomination even if the film itself doesn't wow. 

 
Tier 2 - Or maybe  these ? 
   

James Mangold
(never nominated in this category)
FORD V FERRARI
Fox
Nov 15th

Career momentum. Oscar has liked but not quite loved many of his pictures. Could this film change that?

Noah Baumbach
(never nominated in this category)
MARRIAGE STORY
Netflix
Release TBA

Oscar previously hasn't quite gotten into his groove but Marriage Story is so entertaining / accessible that's bound to change. Still it's likely the acting branch that will be most wild for it.

Sam Mendes
(1 nom and 1 win in this category)
1917
Universal
Dec 25th

Comeback narrative? Freed from the Bond franchise, he takes on an ambitious auteur project within Oscar friendly genre

Lulu Wang
(never nominated)
THE FAREWELL
A24
July 12th

Oscar too often ignores Asian talent but this is turning into such a sleeper hit could make a case for her. Wonderful film.

Todd Phillips
(never nominated)
JOKER
Warner Bros
Oct 4th

He's made money for Hollywood and they do love to award that on occassion and purposefully riffing on classic auteur work for his movie might help.

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Longshot Hopefuls

  • Scott Z Burns, The Report
  • Destin Cretton, Just Mercy
  • Robert Eggers The Lighthouse
  • Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
  • Kasi Lemmons, Harriet
  • Melina Matsoukas Queen & Slim
  • Fernando Meirelles The Two Popes
  • Jay Roach, Bombshell
  • Trey Edward Shultz, Waves

 

James Gray
(never nominated)
AD ASTRA
Fox
Sept 30th

Critics have been in his corner for a long time. If this film meets its ambitions, perhaps?

Pedro Almodóvar
(1 nom in this category)
PAIN & GLORY
SPC
Oct 4th

A personal project for a legendary auteur. But he already has two Oscars (foreign film & screenplay). It'll have to wow.

Greta Gerwig
(1 nom in this category)
LITTLE WOMEN
Columbia
Dec 25th

People are excited to see what she'll do with this classic.