Tier 1 - The Predicted Five

For this year's April Foolish predictions we're imagining that the narrative of Best Director will be "documentarians are auteurs, too" with Oscar nominated documentarians Oppenheimer and Ross getting attention for their narrative debuts. Either that or "Attack of the Octogenarians" if Francis Ford Coppola and Ridley Scott are both in play again for the first time in ages. 

*stats reflect this category only. The asterisk indicates that they have Oscar history in some other category instead or in addition to.

Steve McQueen
(*1 nom)
BLITZ
(Apple)
Date TBA

He's insanely talented but usually more of a provocateur - Does this WW II drama have unconventional ricks up its sleeve?

Joshua Oppenheimer
(*never nom'ed)

THE END
(Neon)
Sept 19

Could win points for ambition, or just craftmanship if he pulls it off.

Francis Ford Coppola
(*4 noms | 1 win)
MEGALOPOLIS
(tba)
Date TBA

If it's wildly acclaimed or just interesting enough to discuss frequently we could see the comeback of all comebacks here.

RaMell Ross
(*never nom'ed)

THE NICKEL BOYS
(Amazon / MGM)
Date TBA

Human scale dramas sometimes struggle in this category but if Oscar really loves it, watch out.

Edward Berger
(*never nom'ed)
CONCLAVE
(Focus)
Nov 8

Given the Oscar pull of his last feature (All Quiet...), it's a bit of a surprise that he didn't make the list then! Now that they know who he is, he'll potentially have an easier go at it.

David Cronenberg
(never nom'ed)
THE SHROUDS
(Unknown)
Date TBA

He's been on the cusp before (A History of Viiolence) . If they're not going to go there, an Honorary would be a perfect solution!

Todd Philips
(*1 nom)
JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX
(Warner Bros) Oct 4

You can't be nominated every time out with a franchise outing. Just ask Nolan, Jackson, Villeneuve, etcetera

Marielle Heller
(never nom'ed)
NIGHT BITCH
(Searchlight)
Dec 6

With the percentage of female directors on the obvious rise, we've seen that reflected in the nominees for this category too. Will Heller be the woman with the best shot this season?

Denis Villeneuve
(*1 nom)
DUNE PART TWO
(Warner Bros)
March 1

He somehow missed for round one but the director's branch surel yadmires his gift for scale and his ambition.

Ridley Scott
(*3 noms)
GLADIATOR 2 (Paramount)
Nov 22

Coppola isn't the only 80something director who we could see back in the Oscar mix this year. If Scott thrills with this action drama, perhaps it'll be the year of comebacks.

Pedro Almodovar(*1 nom)
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR
(Sony Pictures Classics)
Date TBA

The Spanish auteur works quickly so we might get his first English language feature by year's end. If it thrills, could nomination #2 happen?

Sean Wang
(*never nom'ed)
DIDI
(Focus)
Date TBA

He was Oscar nominated in Documentary Short just months ago. Can he keep up the momentum given the praise for this feature debut?

Rachel Morrison
(*never nom'ed)
THE FIRE INSIDE
(Amazon / MGM)
Aug 9

She made Oscar history as the first woman to get a nod in Cinematgoraphy. Now she's in the director's chair.

Pablo Larraín
(*never nom'ed)
MARIA
(tba)
Date TBA

His international reputation has been on the rise for over a decade. Can we picture him one day becoming an Oscar favourite? Not quite but stranger things have happened.

Robert Eggers
(never nom'ed)
NOSFERATU
(Focus)
Dec 25

So far his work is too brutalist, strange, and horror-tinged for awards voters. Yet we feel they'll eventually notice his rather obvious gifts.

Previous Nominees in this Category

• Kevin Costner, Horizon
• Clint Eastwood, Juror #2
• Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
• Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
• George Miller, Furiosa

Never nominated in this category

• Tim Burton, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
• Jon Chu, Wicked
• John Crowley, We Live in Time
• Robert Eggers, Nosferatu
• Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
• Alex Garland, Civil War
• Luca Guadagnino, Challengers and Queer
• Kirill Serebrennikov, Liminov and Dissapearance
• Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson