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95th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2023 / CEREMONY: March 10th, 2024
For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog
And the Nominees Are...
88 films were originally in contention. 15 Finalists followed. Now there are 5.
Nomination Morning: Tuesday January 23, 2024
Oscar Night: Sunday, March 10, 2024
What Was Left Out?
What Will Win?
Trivia Time
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IO CAPITANO Italy |
PERFECT DAYS Japan |
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW Spain |
THE TEACHER'S LOUNGE
Germany |
THE ZONE OF INTEREST United Kingdom |
Who Should Win (Vote Daily) |
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How'd I Do on Predictions?
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The big miss in terms of quality -- well that depends on who you ask of course. Among the finalists Mexico's Totem, Finland's Fallen Leaves, Iceland's Godland, and France's The Taste of Things, all had passionate fanbases. In recent years this category has done some double-dipping with Best Documentary Feature but this year two of the International finalists, Tunisia's Four Daughters, and Ukraine's 20 Days in Mariupol had to make do with a singular nomination in that parallel category. The remaining finalists were Bhutan's The Monk and the Gun, Morocco's The Mother of All Lies, Armenia's Amerikatsi, and Denmark's The Promised Land (which was mainstream enough that a qualifying release only seemed like.a major misstep if it wanted any buzz). |
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Director Matteo Garrone was previously submitted by Italy for Gomorrah (2008) and Dogman (2018) though a nomination didn't follow until now. This is the only one of the nominees that has yet to be released in the US (beyond a qualifying week). It's due on February 23rd |
Director Wim Wenders has been nominated 3 times in Best Documentary. Feature. This would mark his fourth nomination in a second category if Oscar would ever change their rules -- stupidly Directors aren't "official" nominees or winners if their film is honored in the Best International Feature Films category. At 78 years of age, Wenders is the oldest director in the mix of this category this year. Perfect Days won Best Actor at Cannes. That rarely had correlation with this category in the 20th century but it's been semi regular in the 21st: Pain and Glory (2019), The Salesman (2016), The Hunt (2012), Biutiful (2010), and Days of Glory (2006) were previous examples |
Director J.A. Bayona was previously submitted for this category with The Orphanage (2007) his debut feature, but a nomination did not come to pass. He's one of two directors in this category that have directed an actor to an Oscar nomination. In his case that was Naomi Watts in The Impossible (2012) |
This is Germany's 10th nomination in the 21st century alone and in addition to those nominations they've had 5 finalists which means they've been truly competitive in 62% of this century's Oscar races. Incredible success rate. (Only Denmark is anywhere close to as popular in the past 24 years) |
Since English is the primary language in the UK, it's always a surprise as to what they'll submit. Welsh and Persian are the only languages that have shown up multiple times in their submission. This is the first submission that's in German. He turned 40 two weeks before the nominations so Ilker Catak is the youngest director in the mix of this category this year. (He's younger than all of the Best Director nominees, too) He's one of two directors in this category that have directed an actor to an Oscar nomination. In his case that was Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast (2001) |
| OSCAR STATS & FUN TRIVIA ABOUT THIS CATEGORY | ||||
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Most wins for a foreign film
FOUR WAY TIE Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon (Taiwan 2000), Fanny & Alexander's (Sweden 1983), and All Quiet... (2022) share the record with 4 wins (Foreign Film plus crafts). Parasite (South Korea, 2019) tied that number but in 'bigger' categories: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and International |
Most nominations for a foreign film Roma went on to three wins and Crouching four but neither film was able to win Best Picture. |
Most competitive wins in the category by director |
Most competitive wins & nominations w/out winning International Feature Pan's Labyrinth (2006) won 3 awards from 6 nominations but lost its own category to The Lives of Others. |
Most nominated country France leads with 38 nominees (they were also given 3 honoraries before nominations began proper in 1956). Their most recent win was 30 years ago with Indochine (1992) starring Catherine Deneuve. |
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Most winning country ITALY leads with 14 wins (3 of which were honoraries). Some of the most famous films among their winners are The Bicycle Thief (1949), 8 1/2 (1963), The Garden of the Finzi-Continis (1971), Cinema Paradiso (1989), and Life is Beautiful (1998). Italy has struggled since the 21st century began, though, with only 1 win (The Great Beauty, 2013)
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Most popular country with Oscar these past two decades That would be GERMANY. In the 21st century (i.e. the past 24 years) Germany has been nominated 10 times and won thrice. More details on last row of this chart |
First foreign language film nominated for Best Picture Grand Illusion (1938). But Oscar didn't start giving statues to foreign films until 11 years later and foreign films didn't get their own competitive category until 1956 |
Most influential snub of the past two decades You have the horror of the snubbing of Romania's Palme d'or winner 4 Weeks, 3 Months and 2 Days (2007) to thank for the creation of the Academy's Executive Committee. Nominations immediately improved after this committee process began. |
First foreign language film to win an acting Oscar Italy's Two Women (1961) won Best Actress for Sophia Loren who was, not unimportantly, already a major star in the US. But Italy did not submit her vehicle for Foreign Film, choosing Michelangelo Antonioni's La Notte instead (which was not nominatd) |
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First country to break through Oscar's midcentury France/Italy/Japan obsession For the first 12 years of foreign-language film honors only France, Italy, or Japan ever won. Sweden was the first country to break up that strangehold with back to back Ingmar Bergman wins for The Virgin Spring (1960) and Through a Glass Darkly (1961) |
First foreign language film to win any Oscar Switzerland's Marie-Louise (1944) won Best Screenplay, years before the Best International Feature Film category began. |
First foreign language film winner to win more than one Oscar Japan's Gate of Hell (1954) won the Honorary for Foreign Film and also took home Costume Design. |
Only directors of foreign film nominees to go on to direct a Best Picture winner Czech director Milos Forman for Loves of a Blonde (1965)/ Fireman's Ball (1967) + One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)/ Amadeus (1984) was the first to do it. Two Mexican filmmakers have followed suit: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Amores Perros (2000)/Biutiful (2010) + Birdman (2014) and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth (2006) + Shape of Water (2017) Only Bong Joon-ho has done both simultaneously (with Parasite, 2019) |
Only Best International Film winners to also win Best Director Bong Joon-ho (Parasite for South Korea) and Alfonso Cuarón (Roma for Mexico) are the only directors to accomplish this feat and both were very recent. It's worth noting that Ang Lee (Taiwan) has won the Best Director category twice but curiously neither time was that win connected to either a Best Picture Winner or a Best International Film winner. Very interesting stat for Mr. Ang Lee there, showing how often he's delivered in a major way. |
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Most Overall Nominations for a Best Foreign Language Film Nominee That Didn't Win Anything (Not Even This Category) This is a three-way tie. The most recent is the French comedy Amélie (2000) which scored 5 nominations but suffered a surprise loss to Bosnia in the foreign category. |
Biggest Comeback / Revenge for a Film that Was Snubbed In This Category This answer is subjective (how to define comeback or revenge?) but the answer is probably Brazil's City of God which failed to receive a nomination in 2022 when submitted. In 2023 after its US release it scored 4 shocking nominations including Best Director. Truly no pundits or media types saw that coming that year. Other snubbees that got sweet revenge after their snub? Germany's Run Lola Run (1998/1999) became an influential art house sensation. Films like Sweden's Persona (1966) and Hong Kong's In the Mood for Love (2000/2001) now regularly make lists of the greatest films of all time. |
Directors with Most Success In This Category Though *Technically* the Country Wins special cases 4 noms / 4 wins 4 noms / no wins 3 noms / 3 wins 3 noms / no wins |
Stars Who've Appeared in Most Best International Feature Film Nominees
in 3 nominated films Way too many actors have appeared in two nominated films to list but some still working include: Javier Bardem, Antonio Banderas, Toni Servillo, Daniel Bruhl, Benno Furman, Sebastian Koch |
Only Best International Film Nominees to Also Compete in Best Picture Z (1969) Nominated for Best Picture but NOT Submitted for International by Their Country Cries and Whispers (1972) Nominated for Best Picture Before International Feature Existed as a Category Grand Illusion (1938) |
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Most Popular Countries with Oscar 1. FRANCE 9. POLAND 10. CZECHOSLOVAKIA* 11 [tie] ISRAEL & YUGOSLAVIA* * country no longer exists, having split into multiple countries |
Most Popular Countries with Oscar 1. GERMANY 9. SWEDEN 10. ISRAEL 11. AUSTRIA runners up: Iran, Russia |
Most Popular Countries with Oscar 1. FRANCE 2. ITALY 3. GERMANY 4. SPAIN 5. SWEDEN 6. JAPAN 7. DENMARK 8. POLAND 9. HUNGARY 10. ISRAEL 11. SOVIET UNION* runners up: Mexico, Argentina, Belgium, Russia * country no longer exists, having split into multiple countries |
"NEVER GIVE UP"
03. PHILIPPINES (34 submissions) 04. BULGARIA (34 submissions | 1 finalist) 05. VENEZUELA (32 submissions | 1 finalist) 06. CROATIA (32 submissions) 07. TURKEY (30 submissions | 1 finalist) 08 THAILAND (28 submissions) 09 [tie] SLOVAKIA & SLOVENIA (27 submissions each) 11 INDONESIA 12 URUGUAY (23 submissions | 1 disqualified nom) runners up: |
Longest Consecutive Nomination Streaks 6 YEARS 5 YEARS 4 YEARS 3 YEARS Mexico (1960-1962) in the past 14 years no country has accomplished this - who will be next to do it? |
Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp Actress | Director
Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film