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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

updated predictions


Tier 1a - The Five Predicted Frontruners

Shape of Water 
(Fox Searchlight)
Guillermo del Toro
Dec 1st

Venice Winner

del Toro's beauty & the beast style romantic fantasy is getting adults weepy and lush to look at. It's in.

(Warner Bros)
Chris Nolan
July 21st

This WW II epic has it all (except maybe acting branch votes) including probably tech wins and audience love

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri 
(Fox Searchlight)
Martin McDonagh
Oct 13th

BIFA Nominee 

The surprise winner of the Audience Award at TIFF. Those usually make it in and the acting branch will probably love it

Call Me By Your Name
Luca Guadagnino
Nov 24th

Gotham Nomination


Though a win seems farfetched enough people respond to its first love Italian summer drama for likely Picture love


Get Out
Jordan Peele 
Feb 24th

Gotham Nomination, BIFA Nominee

The biggest critical success of the first half of the year. If Universal campaigns well -- and they're planning a big one -- a resurgence seems likely unless critics and the media forget how much they loved it.

Tier 1b - Other Possible Best Picture Players

Darkest Hour
Joe Wright
Nov 22nd

An accidental sibling drama to Dunkirk, this government drama is not stuffy but highly cinematic. Likely nominee in many categories

Dee Rees
Nov 17th

Buzz went a bit quiet after Sundance but here we go with festivals round two and people are loving it again. Can Netflix pull this off, though?


Last Flag Flying
Richard Linklater
Nov 3rd


There are so many 'will it or won't it' pictures this  year. Linklater is hit and miss with the Academy but this story of vets could factor in multiple categories


The Florida Project 
Oct 5th
Sean Baker

Gotham Nomination

Could easily become a "cause" to get it nominated. Those who love it REALLY love it. But can A24 boost the wonderful Sean Baker's profile out of the micro indie world?

The Post
Steven Spielberg)
Dec 22nd

The top 'seems right on paper' contender of the year finds Spielberg in true story / freedom of press land with big stars. We'll see.

Tier 2 - Long Shots or Healthy Competitors?

I Tonya
Craig Gillespie

Gotham Nomination


A crowd pleaser and it seems likely as a Golden Globe option but will Oscar ignore the bad effects and tired mockumentary framing?

Lady Bird 
Nov 10th
Greta Gerwig


Response has been  highly positive but Oscar is notoriously weird about women's pictures and youth films. It's more niche than Juno, for example, but we shall see...

Wonder Woman
(Warner Bros)
Patty Jenkins
June 2nd

Everyone's favorite box office smash of the year. Probably too "superhero" for Oscar love but with a big campaign and other films not getting people passionate, it could resurface. 



The Big Sick
Michael Showalter
June 23rd

A crowdpleaser and that can count for a lot with the right campaign. But can it find a second wind and a way in with less passion than expected for more traditional options?

Alexander Payne)
Dec 22nd


Extremely divisive. How to even keep track of its buzz which keeps going from "bomb" to "masterpiece" and back again

Tier 3 - A tougher journey but they still feel "in play"


Battle of the Sexes
(Fox Searchlight)
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris
Sept 22nd

Initially discounted due to that Sept release date and tennis movies never faring all that well with the public. But it's had a warm response and it's resonant. Can Fox Searchlight make this happen?

Phantom Thread
PT Anderson 
Dec 25th

Sight unseen it could be major. But we just have a hunch that DDL's reported swansong isn't going to be a huge player.

Todd Haynes
Oct 20th

Buzz has gone quiet since Cannes but it still seems like (past) time to welcome Haynes to the big race. The biggest will it or won't it contender. It would not be a shock to see it either a major player or snubbed altogether.

All the Money in the World
Ridley Scott
Dec 8th


The trailer suggested this could be a hit and the story is fascinating. But Ridley Scott is quite uneven as hugely famous directors go

Blade Runner 2049
(Warner Bros)
Denis Villeneuve
Oct 6th

It had to be brilliant and successful to make a heavy Oscar impact - so far it sort of is and sort of isn't. We shall see. 

Tier 4 - Vote siphoning films? They'll have their pockets of fans
  • Detroit (August 4th, Annapurna) surely too divisive
  • The Disaster Artist (A24)
  • Logan (Fox, March 3rd) the X-Men franchise has never really caught Oscar's eye
  • mother! (Paramount, Sept 15th) surely too divisive
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney, Dec 15th) if it didn't happen for The Force Awakens...
  • The Greatest Showman (Fox, Dec 25th) if they're in the mood for a musical
  • Good Time (A24) Gotham Nomination