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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

SEPT 30th PREDICTIONS

 

Tier 1 - Prediction

We feel fairly confident that this is the top ten or so.... why are the actress races feeling quieter this year? Hmmmm. This is not what usually happens.

Laura Dern
52 yrs old | 2 noms
MARRIAGE STORY
(Netflix)
Nov 6th

 Hilarious and sharp as a ruthless divorce attorney in a real Best Picture contender. Her role in Little Women right before voting will be another reminder of how much we love her. 

Margot Robbie
28 yrs old | 1 nomination
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
(Columbia)
July 26th

Oscar loves actors playing other icons (Sharon Tate here) and even though her screen time is very limited people love her in the movie. The Best Picture campaign will help.

Jennifer Lopez
50 yrs old | never nominated
HUSTLERS
(STX)
Sept 13th

 A dazzling star turn in a what might be perceived as a weak year? That's a recipe for an Oscar nomination the press will rally for.

Annette Bening
60 yrs old | 4 nominations
THE REPORT
(Amazon)
Nov 15th

  Oscar loves actors doing real life people and Bening is just swell at doing Dianne Feinstein here. Yet Oscar has passed on her brilliance before. But she still looks like a good bet regardless.

Thomasin McKenzie
18 yrs old | never nominated
JOJO RABBIT
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 27th

 Playing a Jewish girl in hiding in this WW II era satire. She's the humanity of the film and there's lots of leftover goodwill from Leave No Trace too. 

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be These Five

Scarlett Johansson
34 yrs old | never nominated
JOJO RABBIT
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 27th

 Sympathetic role as a mother hiding a Jewish girl from Nazis.  Could be double-nominated this year but it's equally likely that McKenzie will steal her thunder given the size of the roles.

Jannelle Monáe
33 yrs old | never nominated
HARRIET
(Focus)
Nov 1st

She proved in her debut that she had the major goods in terms of screen presence. Though the role isn't that substantial, she's hugely watchable again and could well ride Erivo's coattails to her first nomination

Maggie Smith
84 yrs old | 6 noms | 2 wins
DOWNTON ABBEY
(Focus)
Sept 20th

After the past decade in this role its rivalling Miss Jean Brodie as her signature part. Everyone loves her but she hasn't been nominated in 18 years now and she's getting up there in years. On the other hand, this isn't the Emmys.

Nicole Kidman
51 years old | 4 noms | 1 win
BOMBSHELL
(Lionsgate)
Dec 20th

Oscar loves actors playing other famous types (Gretchen Carlson here) but it's a big cast with internal competition. And we have no idea if critics or audiences will go for it, yet. 

Zhao Shuzhen
??? yrs old | never nominated
THE FAREWELL 
(A24)
July 12th

Impossible not to love as NaiNai, whose end of life diagnosis is central to the plot. She'd have a great narrative as a newbie at her age BUT Oscar has almost never recognized Asian actors and unless A24 works hard for her the early release could hurt.

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...
  • de Armas - Knives Out
  • Robbie - Bombshell
  • Scanlan / Dern / Streep -Little Women
  • Plunkett / Watson - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Hudson/Dench - Cats
  • Butters / Qualley - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Sevigny - Queen & Slim
  • Russell / Goldsberry - Waves

 

Anna Paquin
36 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN
(Netflix)
Nov 1st

Being the most famous woman in a largely male cast often pays off in awards season.Still she's blink and you'll miss her as the titular character's daughter in the trailer? Cameo or substantial?

Elisabeth Moss
37 yrs old | never nominated
US
(Universal)
Mar 22nd

If Lupita Nyong'o's Lead prospects rise, why not Moss on her coattails since she's also brilliant and creepy af in the film? Still, Oscar has trouble understanding genre pictures.

 

Florence Pugh
23 yrs old | never nominated
LITTLE WOMEN
(Columbia)
Dec 25th

There's a lot of enthusiasm about her career right now and that always helps. If Little Women hits big someone is working their way into the conversation

 

Octavia Spencer
46 yrs old | 3 noms | 1 win
LUCE
(Neon)
Aug 2nd

A more complex role than she usually gets as a concerned suspicious teacher. Very strong reviews but few saw the picture.