It's tough to call this a "surprise" exactly, given that Birdman recently took hom both the PGA's top producing honor and SAG's Best Ensemble but now the celebrated intricate metashowbiztragicomedywhatsit has won the DGA. Alejandro González Iñárritu was previously nominated for Babel. But this isn't actually his first DGA win.
More on Birdman's DGA and BAFTA Predictions after the jump
The Mexican helmer previously won the DGA in the "commercial" category two years ago for this Procter & Gamble commercial "Best Job"
So where does this leave the Best Picture race?
For some this latest Birdman win has already prompted wailing and gnashing of teeth. The people who dislike this film really dislike it. I still scratch my head wondering why so many respectable critics who normally value inventive, risky and technically complex work hate it so much. Even if you dislike the film it's bad form to pretend that it's a blight on the cinemascape. It's the opposite of safe conventional hack-work and frankly we need more movies as insane and odd as it is.
DGA versus Oscar
The DGA is not entirely indicative (not that any award is) of where Oscar will go. In the past ten DGA ceremonies, three of the races don't line up. Two of the winning films (Brokeback Mountain and Gravity) lost Best Picture though it's worth noting that in both cases their director still won Oscar gold. And within the past ten years we also had the odd situation of Ben Affleck's Director win for Argo (he was not nominated at the Oscars for directing).
If you stretch back 20 years it's fun to realize that it's basically the same numbers. You can add three more DGA winning films with separate Oscar outcomes: Chicago which won Best Picture and lost Best Director come Oscar time; Saving Private Ryan won Best Director but lost Best Picture; and Apollo 13's Ron Howard, like Ben Affleck, won the DGA but was not nominated for the Oscar in the directing category.
I still think Boyhood will win the Oscar. You can't call this prediction wishful thinking really since I love the two films about the same. (They're numbers two and three on my top ten list). In the end Richard Linklater's low key family epic is still less divisive, more traditionally moving and has a better "narrative" given the 12 year journey to make it. I readily admit, however, that Birdman is gaining steam (as is Grand Budapest Hotel which beat Birdman to the Globe) and it feels like a true competition now. Which, I'd like to remind everyone, is GOOD for Oscars. Things should never be a done deal. Voters should always be weighing the merits of choices A, B, C, D, and E (and okay F,G,H in Best Picture, too) before choosing their favorite.
Tonight... or rather early today given the time difference, the BAFTAs are handed out. Below is a list of their nominations previously discussed here with my predictions highlighted in bold. DISCLAIMER: I never ever ever have pretended to be good at BAFTA predictions so take these with a grain of salt, or a block of it. As as short reminder, Grand Budapest Hotel & The Theory of Everything led the nominations with Birdman close behind.
DISCLAIMER: I never ever ever have pretended to be good at BAFTA predictions so take these with a grain of salt, or a block of it.
BAFTA PREDICTIONS
FILM
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
I really want to predict Budapest Hotel just to be shocking. so let's call that my alternate.
BRITISH FILM
'71
The Imitation Game
Paddington
Pride
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin
Given that it's also in the overall film category and the campaign has been working overtime ... let's say Imitation Game... though The Theory of Everything could well take it.
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Ida
Leviathan
The Lunchbox
Trash
Two Days One Night
DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Damian Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
James Marsh, The Theory of Everything
LEADING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
LEADING ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Imelda Staunton, Pride
Emma Stone, Birdman
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
If Patricia Arquette is ever going to lose, won't it be here to Keira Knightle--- nah, she's not going to lose.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
RISING STAR
Gugu Mbatha-Raw
Jack O'Connell
Margot Robbie
Miles Teller
Shailene Woodley
OUTSTANDING DEBUT, BRITISH WRITER or DIRECTOR or PRODUCER
Gregory Burke (writer) & Yann Demange (director), '71
Stephen Beresford (writer) & David Livingstone (producer), Pride
Elaine Constantine (writer/director), North Soul
Paula Katis (director) & Andrew De Lotbiniere (producer), Kajaki: The True Story
Hong Khaou (writer/director), Lilting
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper, Jason Hall
Gone Girl, Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game, Graham Moore
Paddington, Paul King
The Theory of Everything, Anthony McCarten
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman, Alejandor Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas, Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris Jr, and Armando Bo
Boyhood, Richard Linklater
Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson
Nightcrawler, Dan Gilroy
Whiplash, Damien Chazelle
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman, Emmanuel Lubezki
Grand Budapest Hotel, Robert Yeoman
Ida, Lukasz Zal, Ryzsard Lenczewski
Interstellar, Hoyte Van Hoytema
Mr Turner, Dick Pope
COSTUME DESIGN
Grand Budapest Hotel, Milena Canonero
The Imitation Game, Sammy Sheldon Differ
Into the Woods, Colleen Atwood
Mr Turner, Jacqueline Durran
The Theory of Everything, Steven Noble
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Grand Budapest Hotel, Frances Hannon
Guardians of the Galaxy, Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiu, David White
Into the Woods, Peter Swords King, J. Roy Helland
Mr Turner, Christine Blundell, Lesa Warrener
The Theory of Everything, Jan Sewell
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Big Eyes, Rick Heinrichs, Shane Vieau
Grand Budapest Hotel, Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
The Imitation Game, Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana McDonald
Interstellar, Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
Mr Turner, Suzie Davis, Charlotte Watts
FILM EDITING
Birdman, Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione
Grand Budapest Hotel, Barney Pilling
The Imitation Game, William Goldenberg
Nightcrawler, John Gilroy
The Theory of Everything, Jinx Godfrey
Whiplash, Tom Cross
Just for kicks I want to predict a surprise here.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
X-Men: Days of Future Past
ORIGINAL MUSIC
Birdman, Antonio Sanchez
Grand Budapest Hotel, Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar, Hans Zimmer
The Theory of Everything, Johann Johannson
Under the Skin, Mica Levi
SOUND
American Sniper
Birdman
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
ANIMATED FILM
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
The LEGO Movie
DOCUMENTARY
20 Feet From Stardom
20,000 Days on Earth
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Virunga
BRITISH ANIMATED SHORT
The Bigger Picture
Monkey Love Experiments
My Dad
BRITISH SHORT
Emotional Fusebox
Boogaloo & Graham
The Karman Line
Slap
Three Brothers