Hello Dear Reader! Your host Nathaniel checking in from a screening and chart-making frenzy. I'm heading off to my jury meeting at the Nashville International Film Festival (New Directors competition) to bestow prizes. But I wanted to point you to chart updates (the remainder will premiere this week to complete our April Foolish tradition). So let's talk costume design and cinematography and such. (lots more after the jump)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
I'm predicting two pictures here that have no credited costume designer online yet (Martin Scorsese's Silence and Robert Zemeckis's Allied) which is a risk. Who is doing the work really matters sight unseen as Oscar's individual branches have their pets. But, really, there are few easy guesses this time around. Last year's race was easier to suss out early on: I correctly predicted 3 of the 5 eventual nominees and the stained furs of The Revenant and the dystopian chic of Mad Max Fury Road, the eventual winner, were just outside my april foolish top ten.
Oscar's two favorite costume designers Sandy Powell and Colleen Atwood both have films again this year but, let's keep it 100: Colleen Atwood needs to take a long hard look in the mirror and step away from the fantastical quirk kitsch niche for a few films. Alice Through the Looking Glass, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Huntsman: Winter's War and Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children all in the same year (!?) and all but one of them franchise fantasy sequels of some sort? We're talking a serious artistic rut; how many more puffed shoulders and frilled collars and mismatch colors and so dark they're black velvety looks with intricate brocade details does she have left in her?
Like a lot of the music branch's overworked composers, she surely needs to say "no" to a few offers and do some creative rejuvenation / stretching - maybe a contemporary character study or a strict period piece not designed for inspiring Halloween costumes? Nevertheless Oscar loves her so if she doesn't split her own vote with this year's 9 hour quadruple fussy fantasy miniseries, Alice Through the Looking Glass might be the best bet since it will surely be overdone and hideous and Most often equals Best to Oscar.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
With Emmanuel Lubezki out of the way for once (probably) after three consecutive wins, and nominaton placeholders like Roger Deakins and Robert Richardson also (probably) sidelined, we've finally got some room for newbies!!! Maybe. A girl who loves cinematography can dream. Super talented younger cinematographers who've never been nominated and who could have a shot this year include: Greig Fraser (Lion and Rogue One); Linus Sandgren (La La Land); TFE's communal podcast boyfriend Bradford Young (The Story of Your Life and Beat-Up Little Seagull); and Charlotte Bruus Christensen fresh off that Madding Crowd business (Fences and The Girl on the Train). As for previous nominees, I'm betting on a return from Brokeback Mountain's great Rodrigo Prieto. He seems like a solid bet with two high profile films which will surely have showy visual elements (Passenger and Silence)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Look how many previous nominees have possibly showy opportunities to do it again!
There's everything from 17th century Japan to the recreation of a 1930s European zoo or the 1950s origins of fast food and on to fantastical wonderlands and two starry sci-fi dramas (fantasy and sci-fi being popular in this category). And there's always the chance that this branch will just go on nominating Stuart Craig unto infinity for his work on JK Rowlings world of wizardry. And that's just the former nominees. There could always be first timers nominated.
VISUAL FX, MAKEUP, EDITING - proceed to the charts!
Can two superhero pictures make it in visual fx? (That's not actually common).
What surprises lie in store in makeup? (That category has been impossible from day one. So random!)
And before I get to the Audio charts - any suggestion on Original Song? Have you heard any rumors. It's so hard to know which movies will have eligible songs.
ONE MORE NOTE ON BEST PICTURE
Since we've already talked up Best Picture let's just talk how we did last year. The predicted top eight this far in advance only included three of the eventual nominees (Brooklyn, The Revenant, and Bridge of Spies) but 37.5% isn't that bad of a year-in-advance guess. The eventual Best Picture winner Spotlight was nowhere to be seen on the chart, (FACE PLANT) even though I obviously knew about it, mentioning it in the acting charts. Gah! In mistakes that I plan to repeat: I still think Sicario was a good guess a full year later (and better than some of Oscar's choices) so I'm risking predicting another Villeneuve picture sight unseen (The Story of Your Life) because you know it's eventually going to happen. He's got skills, that one.