by Nathaniel R

Nomination leaders: Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, Three Billboards, Dunkirk and Blade Runner 2049

Though The Shape of Water (12 nominations) and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (9 nominations) continued their stamped across precursor season as the (probable) films to beat come Oscar night, Darkest Hour finally made a significant awards mark. The Joe Wright helmed World War II Winston Churchill drama really should have started its theatrical run in October in the US to build steam but perhaps it wasn't too late if the BAFTA nominations convince Academy voters this week to check the film out before completing their ballots. The other nomination leaders were Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk (with 8 nominations each). Other major Oscar contenders had to settle for less. I Tonya continued its Nathaniel-defying (argh!) upward trajectory this awards season with 5 nominations beating out previously more ballyhooed prestige competition like Call Me By Your Name (4 noms), Lady Bird (3 noms) and Get Out (2 noms).

But the biggest loser this morning in terms of nominations is Steven Spielberg's The Post which received not a single nomination. That also happened to it at the SAG nominations, this complete shut-out. Most pundits don't seem to think it's in trouble but wouldn't any other film shut out completely from SAG and BAFTA be considered "in trouble" for Oscar nods? Is its Mecha-Bait 'done-deal-on-paper' status working against it in this new more volatile "what makes a movie an Oscar movie?" era of voting? It's surely food for thought if you'd like to nibble in the comments.

Phantom Thread with 4 nominations and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool with 3 nominations also did better than expected this morning. Full list of nominations with commentary for each category is after the jump...

Outstanding British film

Outstanding film

• Call Me By Your Name
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BAFTA really needs to iron out why they have two separate best film categories, especially since they share so many nominees. Either actually make a film only eligible for one or the other or quit it and just have a top ten list or some such. Isn't is absolutely silly that Dunkirk, for example, is not considered a "British" film while Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri is.

We're not here for the gaming of awards systems and awards bodies really shouldn't be either. It invariably makes them look bad when they allow distributors and campaign strategist decide how things work. 

Should we be looking out for some of these stateside? Lady Macbeth and The Ghoul received stateside releases, the latter on just 4 screens this past summer, but the rest did not. 

And here we see yet more shady awards game mentality in that every voting body wants to be an Oscar influencer rather than simply sitting down to honor "the best" as they see fit. Elle, which was not eligible last year at BAFTA, hit the foreign film category BUT the great Isabelle Huppert's highly successful awards campaign last season is now 'old news' so notice that she doesn't show up in the Best Actress list... though you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks the film isn't brilliant that doesn't credit her as the defining genius of the film. It's just ridiculous; her brilliance doesn't fade just because the calendar turned a corner.

With the exception of last year's Oscar nominated James Baldwin doc I Am Not Your Negro, the rest of this field is still in the running and hoping for an Oscar nomination from the 15 wide finalist list this year here in the States.

Might My Life as a Courgette, which had quite a good awards run last season winning the European Film Award and snagging an Oscar nomination, give Coco a run for its money since the eligibility calendar placed it in 2017 for BAFTA?

Oooh, a genuine surprise. Denis Villeneuve shows up for his ambitious Blade Runner sequel despite the film not showing up in either Best Film list. And he couldn't have pulled "home team" votes either since he's Canadian rather than British. Are we underestimating him in the Best Director contender list?

BAFTA mostly ignored Lady Bird and Get Out but at least they showed up in the category that they will probably compete for the win in at the Oscars in March. That is unless the resurgent I Tonya becomes the flavor of the spring. Which it might.

Another genuine surprise -- and a double whammy one: Both Jamie Bell and Annette Bening appear in the highly competitive lead acting races for their aching duet in the drama about Gloria Grahame's final cancer ridden days. In case you haven't guessed I really like this movie.

Consider us shocked that Daniel Kaluuya made the list, though, considering the BAFTA voters didn't go crazy for his film. Yes, he's great in the film but it's not the kind of role that usually wins acting nominations UNLESS the film itself is doing some of the awards work. Best Actor remains unusually competitive... is it because no one much cared about the category this year with Best Actress getting so much of the press?

Is Lesley Manville heading for one of those surprise Oscar nominations? The timing *might* be right.

What a strange category this is turning out to be this season, no? It's as if everyone is stumped as to who to include which makes no sense because MICHAEL STUHLBARG is right there, people?!? (Also have you voted on our Three Billboards cop vs cop poll, yet?)

I've been predicting Darkest Hour in "original score" for a long time despite no supportive evidence. Haha. Will my prediction hold up? This is the first indication that it might. 

As someone who does not hate Three Billboards (I use the disclaimer since so many people online do and it is imperative that the next comment not come across and knee-jerk hatred of the movie so that my horrified confusion will be heard) "what the what now? CINEMATOGRAPHY?" This is as weird as that time when The King's Speech kept getting cinematography nominations. But why? It's supposed to be a craft nomination, not just "here's a movie we like!" 

Not nominating Get Out in this category is absurd. If Oscar also commits this atrocity we will be furious. 

A mystery of awards season that hasn't been discussed much. Will Beauty and the Beast secure Oscar nominations in eye candy categories. On the one hand it seems like a default player under "Most" in craft categories but on the other hand it couldn't even snag a single Golden Globe nomination and it would have seemed a shoo-in there given their traditional fondness for musicals. 

I still think this category is wildly up in the air and could hold significant surprises on Oscar nomination morning. For instance I don't think ANY of these films are secure (though any of them could transfer) You?

All but Blade Runner 2049 made the parallel finals in the Oscar category though Oscar stupidly only allows 3 nominees in the category (despite every other category getting at least five). Remember when Chris gave Darkest Hour "Best Wig" in his fun year in review wig-snatching post? Good times. 

Baby Driver is something of a mystery this Oscar season. Hollywood in general (and the public, too) seems to really like it but it's not "prestigious" in the typical (however useless) sense so will AMPAS members in the craft departments go for it or forget about it with more Best Picture-like films staring them in the face. 

Blade Runner 2049 made quite a mark in the craft categories, didn't it? Will it be a fierce competitor on Oscar nomination morning? The record for most nominations without a Best Picture nod in the relatively short window of the new Oscar system with its expanded Best Picture field is held by Carol (2015) with six nominations. Can Blade Runner 2049 tie Todd Haynes masterpiece or will it have to settle for something slightly more Skyfall'ish (5 nods) in the realm of "non Best Picture nominee with abundant nominations"?

SOME CRAZY TALK: Dear Awards voters, maybe you should consider giving the actual visual effects trophy to the Planet of the Apes reboot trilogy? It's been nominated every time at both BAFTA and Oscar and neither body ever wants to say "okay okay... you're doing brilliant work. Here's your trophy!" 

None of these films are on the Oscar finalist list -- any UK readers want to fill us in on their must-see status?

Previously discussed here at TFE. It's so easy to forget that Kaluuya is British isn't it, since his breakout is in such a quintessentially American film (Get Out). Will a Brith win this prize or will one of the Americans (Timothée or Tessa) take it? What'cha think readers?