by Nathaniel R
Consensus is taking clear shape with film critics and awards bodies. They're finding Parasite the very best film of 2019 fairly regularly now. In terms of both critics and larger more 'industry' organizations Martin Scorsese's elegaic The Irishman is leading the English language films in nomination counts and prizes. Noah Baumbach's impressive superbly-acted dramedy Marriage Story and Tarantino's shape-shifting gorgeously executed 1969 homage Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are not far behind in the collective love sweepstakes. That could mean that any of those four will be vying for the Best Picture win at the Oscars in February. With the preferential ballot it helps to have passion votes and all of them have that. It also helps to be everyone's second or third favourite and each of those films could theoretically score high on virtually any voter's ballot.
But what's in fifth place?
Since 2011 rules have been in place to deliver between 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees depending on percentages of votes. To date, though, this system has only produced years with either 8 or 9 nominees for the top prize. But a though exercize today. Which of the remaining films would make it in a year with only 5 films in play...
1917
It's interesting that this instantly acclaimed World War I drama 1917 hasn't been able to break out with any critics group yet beyond cinematography or craft citations given the ecstacy that greeted its first couple of screenings in NYC and LA. Remember on the podcast how we cautioned "first!" viewers to be a little more careful in their tweet frenzies before credits have even rolled on the film in question; we weren't saying it without good reason! Would 1917 make it all the way to Best Picture or would it be a film people respected more than loved, like an Empire of the Sun (1987) or a with plentiful nominations but landing outside the final list?
Joker
Yes, it technically falls under the "superhero" genre umbrella (despite the complete absence of superheroes) and Oscar doesn't like those much. On the other hand, Oscar has always dug Batman movies (look it up) and they're also in love with Martin Scorsese films which Joker desperately mimics at every turn. Oscar voters are often allergic to genre films but when they go there it's almost always for a film that is a box office smash and true phenomenons are often irresistable to voters and this Todd Phillips film more than qualifies on both counts. Would it be a slam dunk because of that?
Jojo Rabbit / The Two Popes / Knives Out
It's hard to discount that TIFF People's Choice win for the former AND its SAG ensemble win or general crowd-pleasing joy for the latter two. These are obviously the leading "lightweight" contenders this season (lightweight not being an insult but a perception description). Even if you dont think any of them will be up for several Oscars it's a mistake to assume that the five nomination leaders would always be the top five when it comes to Best Picture. All Oscar history prior to 2011 suggests that that's folly. Popularity matters even if there aren't a slew of sure-thing nominations to buttress a film's Best Picture dreams.
Little Women
Oscar is unfortunately very "boy movie" focused year in and year out, regularly opting for movies that might be described as feminine only if they're closer to co-ed pleasures (like romantic dramas). Though it seems impossible to believe it's absolutely true that there hasn't been a Best Picture shortlist dominated by leading ladies rather than leading men since (gulp) 1987 which is BANANAS since women make up half the human race. Little Women also missed the SAG nominations this year which is a rough. On the other hand, Greta Gerwig surprised with much love for Lady Bird, despite the Oscar-obstacles of being female centric and a comedy. Plus the reviews are glowing and it's a real reworking of the material rather than a lazy nostalgia play. Might it be stronger on Oscar nomination morning than people are expecting?
Ford V Ferrari
A little from the 1917 column in terms of craft pleasures, a little from the Knives Out column in terms of audience love -- it's a real hit! Old fashioned but well crafted entertainments with populist cred have often appealed to Oscar voters. Is this true story racing drama going in stronger than we think despite the Globe shutout beyond Christian Bale?
Call me crazy but I'm leaning towards Joker as being in 5th place, rather than 1917 or Jojo Rabbit. What'cha think?