by Nathaniel R
The Producers Guild of America has spoken and even though in past years they've shown a fondness for superheros and blockbusters nominating films like Star Trek, Wonder Woman, and Deadpool, this year they've dashed the Oscar dreams of the 8th Spider-Man movie and the 25th official James Bond movie and selected only Dune to represent big franchise filmmaking. The "surprise" nomination, though it really shouldn't be considered a surprise given that they even nominated Molly's Game, was Aaron Sorkin's Being the Ricardos. Their nominees are as follows...
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This is a big get for Being the Ricardos which we've been predicting for the 10th spot in Best Picture for some time (though it's felt very vulnerable). Things could still change though. The PGA lineup never transfers fully intact. Here is how it's differed since 2009 when the PGA moved to 10 nominees. In that same time frame Oscar had anywhere between 8-10 nominees so sometimes everything that was nominated for Oscar did in fact get a PGA nomination but the lists have never been an exact duplicate.
Generally speaking --- very broadly "generally" -- Oscar will choose something that's closer to a smaller production and critical darling when they replace something from the PGA which leans (again very generally speaking) towards bigger spectacles and more mainstream choices.
2020: (PGA only): Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami
Oscar replaced with: The Father
2019: (PGA only): Knives Out
Oscar replaced with: All other nominations matched
Difference of opinion: PGA chose 1917 for its top prize and Oscar went with Parasite.
2018: (PGA only) Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place
Oscar replaced with: All other nominations matched
2017: (PGA only) The Big Sick, I Tonya, Molly's Game, and Wonder Woman
Oscar replaced with: Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread
2016: (PGA only) Deadpool
Oscar replaced with: All other nominations matched.
Difference of opinion: PGA chose La La Land for its top prize and Oscar went with Moonlight
2015: (PGA only) Ex Machina, Sicario and Straight Outta Compton
Oscar replaced with: Room
Difference of opinion: PGA chose The Big Short for its top prize and Oscar went with Spotlight
2014: (PGA only) Foxcatcher, Gone Girl and Nightcrawler
Oscar replaced with: Selma
2013: (PGA only) Blue Jasmine and Saving Mr Banks
Oscar replaced with: Philomena
Difference of opinion: NOT REALLY given Oscar outcomes but there was a tie and the PGA chose both Gravity (which won the most Oscars) for its top prize AND 12 Years a Slave which won Best Picture at the Oscars.
2012: (PGA only) Moonrise Kingdom and Skyfall
Oscar replaced with: Amour
2011: (PGA only) Bridesmaids, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Ides of March
Oscar replaced with: The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
2010: (PGA only) The Town
Oscar replaced with: Winter's Bone
2009: (PGA only) Invictus and Star Trek
Oscar replaced with: The Blind Side and A Serious Man
You have to go back to the early 90s to find a time when the PGA and Oscar were carbon copies of each other. The most recent such year was 1994 when Forrest Gump, Four Weddings and a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, and Shawshank Redemption competed at both ceremonies.
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Guilds are notoriously American-mainstream centric when it comes to animation so it always feels like the foreign films won't get Oscar nods in this category until they do. Flee and Belle are still possible in the Oscar lineup.
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Producers Guild voters must be upset about "cancel culture" if they're sticking up for Dave Chappelle in the culture wars of 2021 when he kept verbally attacking trans people.
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