Our Oscar Volley series continues with Cláudio Alves and Nick Taylor doing a deep dive on a category near and dear to their hearts...
NICK: First, quick introductions! What drew us to this category, you ask? The Supporting Actress category was one of my favorite fields to rummage through when I was initially exploring the Oscars. Tilda Swinton, Lupita Nyong’o, Sandy Dennis, Thelma Ritter, Mo’Nique, Dianne Wiest, Agnes Moorehead - all led me to new ideas about film and performance I hadn’t dreamed of before then. Watching talented actresses carve out whole worlds from the corners of their films became one of my favorite things to search for in movies.
I have a very specific memory of discovering the Supporting Actress Smackdown after watching Kramer vs Kramer for the first time only a few weeks after the podcast on 1979 dropped and listening to the discussion with rapt attention. And then the 1948 episode came out like, the next day! Gave me wild misconceptions on how fast things updated, lemme tell you...
These things feel very foundational to how I engaged with film criticism and the type of Oscar conversations I found valuable. Getting to play along with the Smackdown for the past two years has been an absolute dream come true. What about you?
CLÁUDIO: Like you, my love for this category is partly tied to the Smackdown, though I found it earlier, on its Stinkylulu days. That blog helped solidify a fascination with actressing at the edges, and the proof that no part is too small for the right performer. As my Oscar obsession was born around 2006-2008, I distinctly remember reading the Smackdowners choose Swinton and then seeing her win, as if by a marvelous miracle. That victory still feels like a miracle years later, an Oscar triumph that led me to explore Swinton's filmography, opening my eyes to all sorts of fantastic cinema.
I'd love it if this year's lineup and the eventual winner could do the same for some baby cinephiles out there. There are certainly some interesting and worthy contenders that could do just that.
NICK: This year’s crop excites me principally on the grounds of how different the films in contention are and the different artistic demands placed on the performers. We’ve got a big-budget Hollywood musical, a psychologically taut neo-Western, a sports biopic, a regionally and era specific memory play, two very tricky adaptations of complicated novels, to name just a handful of the films floating around The Film Experience’s top 15 contenders. I suspect Oscar’s final lineup may ultimately be too wife/mother-centric for my liking, and I definitely don’t *love* every performance equally. But nearly all of these women are resourceful actors.
CLÁUDIO: Regarding mother figures, Kirsten Dunst's Rose is probably the "lockiest" of locks. As far as I'm concerned, she also represents the most complicated version of the archetype in serious contention. The combination of Campion and Dunst was almost too obvious. So much so that I confess how, on first viewing, I might have taken the actress for granted. However, as I re-watched The Power of the Dog, new details and canny choices kept revealing themselves. Maybe knowing the shape of her arc beforehand opens one's eyes to the poetic tragedy of Rose and how the actress modulates the character's miseries. Notice how the voice loses control over time, how lies that come easily early on become more ragged and obvious. Her downfall isn't monotonous or immediate, but a gradation of faint happiness souring into despair.
The film is full of such searing moments. I can't shake off the fragility of her hope when first shacking up with Plemons' George, the way she externalizes maternal jealousy in opposition to how Cumberbatch internalizes his brotherly greed. But, most of all, Dunst's performance of agony during that dispiriting dinner party refuses to leave me. Like Rose is haunted by the piano notes, so is the viewer haunted by Dunst's naked despondence, raw to the point of bloodiness.
NICK: The dinner sequence is her best work. Rose looks so defeated before the party even begins, barely holding her head up as her husband exchanges simple pleasantries with the governor. Her picnic with Plemons is another high point, as she teaches her new husband to dance and gently tries to lead him out of his shell. The Power of the Dog is largely built on relationships and individual beats that feel at once obvious and ripe with unspoken nuance, and Dunst, without sacrificing any sense of precision in her playing, doesn’t shy away from the inevitably of Rose’s collapse against this isolated landscape and these lonely men. Her very externalized breakdown plays differently next to all the unspoken tensions boiling in Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee’s performances, but I admire her willingness to go big without isolating herself from her co-stars or disconnecting from Campion. But it's not my favorite performance of hers, and I still pine for a version of this story where she and Plemons had a bit more time to flesh out this relationship.
I agree that Dunst feels like the most “locked”, give or take Ariana DeBose, yet I wouldn’t call her the most likely to win. Before SAG announced their nominees, I would’ve similarly guessed that Aunjanue Ellis was on an uninterrupted journey to her first nomination for King Richard. I’m still expecting her to show up, but her SAG omission is absolutely baffling. A longstanding character actress in a likely Best Picture nominee giving such depth and human texture as the wife of the great man. Granted, Oracene Price’s devotion, compromise, and assuredness in her path is written with more complex angles than such a description would suggest, and Ellis does valuable work to color who this person is, whether she’s seizing a rare moment in the spotlight or simply watching her daughters compete. Do you think the SAG miss signals trouble for Ellis, or was it just a weird blip?
CLÁUDIO: A blip, like when Regina King missed both the SAG and BAFTA lineups but went on to win the Oscar nonetheless. I can't imagine AMPAS embracing King Richard without throwing a nod Ellis's way. To me, she's the standout of the movie. Plunging into the depths of standard biopic prestige, she searches for complex humanity and shows her findings through canny characterization. Furthermore, her big scenes are handled beautifully, like pitch-perfect Oscar clips that don't sacrifice nuance for spectacle. Ellis entertains, provokes, works along with the prestige model while providing dimensions it often overlooks. Though she hasn't been in the vicinity of movie awards for as long as Dunst, her career is vast and excellent, the sort of character actress excellence this category was originally made to reward.
Speaking of this category's history, I agree that Dunst is a lock but doesn't feel like a winner. As far as precursors are concerned, Ariana DeBose is the apparent frontrunner, destined to repeat Rita Moreno's awards triumph in the role of Anita. Truthfully, I was skeptical about the prospect of another West Side Story movie from the start, which might have colored my reaction. In the end, though, it was a happy surprise. As for DeBose, while I did like her, she never rose to the level of excellence Moreno achieved before her. It's an unfair comparison in some regards, but it's difficult to forget the greatest Best Supporting Actress winner of all time. Indeed, I'm a bit perplexed DeBose is the one getting the most attention. For me, Faist and Moreno were the unmistakable MVPs.
To be more specific, I love how DeBose establishes the erotic bond with Bernardo and the sisterly bond with Maria. Furthermore, her energy is fantastic in numbers like "America," bringing the house down with the presence of a star in the making. Still, her phrasing sometimes sacrifices character specificity or the wordplay for unmodulated spectacle. I, for one, didn't quite believe her pro-romance about-face after "A Boy Like That." While I didn't think, throughout the film, that she's the best close-up actress, the instant of deadly decision near the end is phenomenal. Her giving into hate was viscerally felt, even at the level of close-up expressivity. All in all, a good performance if not my favorite of the season.
Do you think I'm being too harsh towards DeBose? Maybe I'm just a grump who is too fixated on Moreno's perfection in the '61 movie and how heartbreaking she turned out to be as Valentina.
NICK: I don’t think you’re being unfair. Her Anita is instantly credible in the ways you described, and she stands out as a wildly charismatic presence. But like you, Mike Faist is very much my MVP of the new West Side Story, and I don’t think DeBose matches his synthesis of stylized pastiche and modern psychology. Still, DeBose is giving an accomplished star turn, and given how many of the contenders in this category have improved for me on rewatch, I’m excited to watch her again.
If there’s anything holding me back from calling DeBose the frontrunner, it’s that for all the nominations West Side Story has been getting, the cast just isn’t getting real attention outside of her. Zegler and Faist still feel like they have an (outside) shot at Oscar nominations but is Rita Moreno’s still in the running at all? Valentina is a lovely addition that’s far more thoughtfully and substantially crafted than it frankly needed to be, and Moreno’s melancholic rendition of “Somewhere” might be the most successful restaging of any number in the film. Admittedly, I think DeBose being her film’s sole representative at SAG (not even a Cast nomination) might signal Moreno’s less likely than we previously imagined.
There’s a handful of other films that have multiple Supporting Actress contenders, like Belfast, The Lost Daughter, and Mass, but do you think any of them have a shot?
CLÁUDIO: I think Belfast has the best chances of those three. However, it's the least deserving of a double nomination. Unlike awards voters, I'm not fond of Branagh's movie, and that extends to the actors' efforts. Maybe my expectations were too high since I've long followed and admired her work on TV, but Caitriona Balfe was a disappointment. The trailer promised juicy drama, emotional highs, and teary Oscar clips. While the film provides those things, it does not allow the actress to build a consistent characterization. Her Ma never comes together, feeling more like a reel of actor highlights than an actual person.
What's more, she's in an excellent position to help ground the movie, give it a solid foundation, and even solve some of its issues. There is a version of this movie where Balfe intercedes where neither screenplay nor lensing do, to delineated differences between a parent seen through a child's perspective and a parent as an individual adult who has complexities beyond what their young can understand. But she doesn't. I think that's why my favorite Belfast player was Judi Dench. She does get a moment to exist beyond Buddy's imagination in an example of distinct, almost disruptive, tonality. In other words, the actress kills it in her final moment. It's the film's best scene, the only time the screen seems to vibrate with genuine sorrow instead of sugarcoated sentimentality. Sure, her accent work isn't perfect, and there's not much to the role, but if only one Belfast actress can be nominated, I hope it's Dench.
If you allow me some lunatic guess, I will go so far as predicting Dench to be this year's surprise inclusion and Balfe the glaring snub come nomination morning. As of late, it feels like there's always space for a veteran Oscar darling in this category. Beyond Negga, all the likely nominees are first-timers, which makes me anticipate some shocking absence, and Balfe's TV-centric stardom feels like an awards red flag. Like you on Moreno, SAG is the only factor that gives me pause. They are usually Dench's greatest champions. If they preferred Balfe's Ma over her Granny, it's hard to imagine AMPAS doing the reverse.
NICK: In the Belfast cast, Dench and Hinds do the best job at evoking a vivid, lived-in history that’s entirely outside the world of the movie. In her private reveries and unabashed wonder at the new marvels she sees at the movie theater, Dench endows the film with a configuration of discovery, nostalgia, and family love that easily outclasses Branagh’s flimsy depiction of it. I don’t love her in it but it’s good work in a film that needs it, and I suspect if categories were sorted like they were fifteen or twenty years ago, she and Hinds would be comfortably nestled in the Supporting categories while Balfe and Dornan duked it out in Lead.
As for Balfe, I didn’t have much familiarity with her prior to this, aside from drab roles in Super 8, Ford vs Ferrari. The scattershot direction and cinematography are no real help and Ma is by far the most poorly written role contending in this category. She’s unable to make the role cohere, and there’s plenty of moments where she fumbles without any help from Branagh or Zambarloukos. But to be fair I don’t know who could make a sequence like her decision to make Buddy return stolen goods amidst a raid on a grocery store play as logical, character-driven action. She’s got good moments that ultimately feel disconnected from each other, much like many of the plot threads in Belfast.
Balfe is very much the actress from Nathaniel’s predicted 5 who I’m hoping will drop out at the last minute, though at this point I don’t see much evidence to support that dream. I’m still half expecting Oscar to ultimately pick the Golden Globes lineup. But if there’s one person I’m banking on surging at the last second (number two will come later), it’s Jessie Buckley’s intelligent, carnal, frustrated, remarkably layered portrait of the younger Leda Caruso in The Lost Daughter. Her Leda perfectly complements Olivia Colman’s ingenious star turn, yet she also gives a distinct interpretation of the character. Even if you think the flashbacks are unnecessary (I don’t), she anchors them so marvelously that we learn as much about Leda in these passages as we do in the present. She’s also a rising star who’s been killing it for the past several years, and at a point in her career where an Oscar nomination in this category is prime real estate. All that, and The Lost Daughter has overperformed thus far. If she makes it in at BAFTA I’ll feel even more confident about her odds.
That being said, I’m not sure The Lost Daughter has the legs to get *two* of its supporting actresses nominated, or if Buckley is even my favorite of them. Dagmara Domincyzk’s proud, demonstrative, expertly shaded turn is likely too front-loaded to get recognized despite the powerful impact she makes. And what will it take for Dakota Johnson to get any love from awards bodies? I was fully convinced her star power would give her a leg up over Buckley, yet she hasn’t shown up anywhere for her sensitive, watchful performance. The whole climax, hell, arguably the spine of the movie itself, is built on her relationship with Leda and the choices both women make once everything is out in the open. You can draw a line from her Nina to Kodi Smit-McPhee’s Peter in The Power of the Dog, and the long con of her mysterious yet utterly human dimensionality shines through quite clearly. I have to stop now or I’ll gush about this cast forever. Where do you stand on these three actresses?
CLÁUDIO: First of all, that film's true supporting actress standout is the pine cone that terrorizes Olivia Colman. She's got a tiny part, but she kills it, leaving a lasting impression. A scene-stealer!
All kidding aside, I feel that you're both more enamored by the film and more optimistic about its awards' prospects than I am. While I can see Buckley getting a BAFTA nod and translating that into a surprising Oscar citation, the other two actresses seem woefully outside the race. A pity since, while I do like what Buckley's doing, she's the lesser of the trio for me. Re-watching the film, I yearned for more connective tissue between the two versions of Leda, especially regarding their ways of navigating conversations and inhabiting the space. Furthermore, Colman's got a natural ease drawing humor from awkwardness that's not there in Buckley's portrayal. Nevertheless, hers is a bracing portrayal of frustrated motherhood, willfully abrasive in ways that still surprise on a revisit. Her anger stings and consumes, like a fire burning the movie from the inside out.
Johnson and Domincyzk's parts aren't nearly as juicy, but just as tricky. While Domincyzk's character's diminishing importance sabotages awards hopes, Johnson doesn't have the same problem. On the contrary, her Nina becomes more central towards the end, the protagonist of some of The Lost Daughter's more complicated interactions. As an ensemble, I love how the pair's relationship to Leda is built on contrasts, each actress establishing a distinct dynamic that's both antagonistic and complementing. Between Nina and Leda, one feels a spark of recognition, a kinship that doesn't extend to the other woman. Take the aftermath of the girl's disappearance and subsequent discovery. Domincyszk is all about physical comfort and active endearment. Johnson is more closed-off, a shadow of irritation, perchance suspicion, marring the picture of gratitude.
I feel a similar balancing act in one of the year's other great ensembles - Mass. Martha Plimpton and Ann Dowd's Best Supporting Actress campaigns may be fraudulent in category placement, but their worthiness can't be denied. The latter is getting the most attention, maybe because she closes the film on her best scene. However, I prefer Plimpton, whose work is the most internal among the film's quartet of grieving parents. She gets fewer opportunities to show off than Isaacs, Dowd, and, to a lesser extent, Birney, but every silence and swallowed word reverberates. Part of me wants them to surprise Oscar morning, while the other feels outraged at such blatant category fraud. Are you similarly torn, or is this just a 'me' problem?
NICK: This field already feels defined by a lot of large “supporting” performances, so we don’t need any outright leads though Dowd and especially Plimpton are doing tremendous work in Mass (side note, congrats for the Ensemble win!). Dowd making BAFTA’s longlist was a nice surprise, and she’s campaigning like hell to get Mass in front of as many eyes as possible. I do wonder what road any of those actors have to getting a nomination at this point. The lack of mandatory nominations for the ensemble is disappointing, and I don’t understand how Isaacs got zero traction in the Best Supporting Actor race. Maybe there’s enough goodwill behind Dowd or Plimptonto pull off a Charlotte Rampling-in-45 Years type nomination, but predicting that sort of surprise can feel counterintuitive. 'This person has barely shown up anywhere, which is just the trajectory they needed!'
And speaking of people who feel like they could still show up despite not appearing much: do we think Marlee Matlin has an outside shot of getting recognized for CODA? So far Troy Kotsur’s performance has received the bulk of CODA’s acting hosannas, and the film itself seems poised to show up on nomination morning. Matlin’s role isn’t as substantial as her screen husband’s, lacking a real one-on-one, heart-to-heart sequence with Emilia Jones to match the sensitivity of the father-daughter conversation in the back of their truck. One could argue the film just isn’t as curious about her point of view as his. But she humanizes her role as adeptly as Kotsur does, and the narrative of Matlin, the Best Actress winning lead of Children of a Lesser God who remains the youngest Best Actress winner and the only deaf performer ever nominated, earning her second career citation sounds like it should carry her as far as she damn well pleases. Along with Buckley, she’s the other actress who I suspect has a tangible outside shot on Oscar morning. Is that crazy talk? Who do you suspect is closer to a nomination than we might be guessing?
CLÁUDIO: Her narrative is so good that I'm baffled she hasn't been making more of an impression in the awards race. Especially when one considers how well CODA is performing overall. It seems that voters have concentrated their goodwill around Troy Kotsur, as they well should. He's the MVP and I'd go as far as saying he's the only element of CODA that deserves any awards consideration. But, of course, my taste is very different than that of the average Academy member, so I'm expecting a slew of Oscar nods in that movie's future. Can Matlin be one of them? I think so, though she needs to ramp up her campaign efforts. As you said, her most significant hurdle is the lack of a big moment, a scene ready for Oscar clip purposes. Because of that, I'd say a win is definitely out of her reach.
Speaking of pictures I dislike that might nab some Best Supporting Actress slots, we must address the elephant in the room - Don't Look Up. The presence of both Blanchett and Streep on the BAFTAS longlist concerns me, for, no matter how unmodulated their caricatures might be, they're huge names and huge names have an easier time. Moreover, it wouldn't even be the first time Streep comes out of the woodworks to get a surprise nomination, though she usually has more precursor support. The last time she made fun of Trump on such a public stage, the Academy gave her a nomination. Am I being needlessly pessimistic?
NICK: Streep’s nominations have rarely felt like a surprise the past decade - The Post is surely the closest she’s come to actually missing out of any recent year she’s been in contention, right? Plus McKay’s past two films haven’t really over or under-performed with the Academy, they mainly just get the nominations they were expected to get, even if some of them seemed like shakier prospects than others. Based on different pundits, Don’t Look Up is poised to rack up two, seven, five, who knows how many nominations, and if the actors were going to be a dominating factor in this film’s awards narrative we would've seen that by now. (That being said, I’d take Melanie Lynskey’s bruised tenderness with Leo over her A-list costars).
Maybe my antipathy around Streep comes from finding her such a drag in the movie, but I have a hard time imagining her non-energy standing out in a good way next to Moreno’s melancholic warmth or Buckley’s selfishness. I feel similarly about Blanchett in Don’t Look Up, who’s never as funny as she should be. If anything I think her SAG nomination for Nightmare Alley is more telling than getting on the BAFTA shortlist for Don’t Look Up, since SAG easily could’ve been cited for the latter film and didn't. It could just be a fluke, but it’s an odd film and an odd role to pop up from nowhere just because it’s Cate Blanchett being good again.
CLÁUDIO: SAG is known for are known for nominating wildcards that never materialize in Academy, but Blanchett is feasible. Did you see that glorious billboard FYC, focusing solely on her Nightmare Alley character, all blonde perfection, and firebomb red lips? She certainly pops, though the tenor of the performance is more attuned to a stylized milieu than the Oscars are known to honor. At least, as of late.
If one antinaturalistic tour de force from a movie that’s vaguely overperforming is going to crash AMPAS’ lineup, I sure as hell hope it’s Kathryn Hunter for The Tragedy of Macbeth. I don’t see it happening, just as I have no illusions that Gaby Hoffmann’s motherly portraiture in C’mon C’mon ever stood a chance. Still, those are two of the best supporting actress performances of the year. Hunter, who the NYFCC recognized, mixes physical theater with Shakespearean text in ways that boggle the mind. The plasticity of cinema offers her new possibilities she couldn’t explore in works such as Julie Taymor’s staging of A Midsummer Night’s Dream. It opens the gates to a chimeric creation that Tim Brayton perfectly summed up as reminiscent of J-horror. As for Hoffmann, she’s a wonder of tenderness with prickly shades, a complex multidimensional character construct that jumps out of the screen as one of 2021’s most impactful film mothers.
NICK: You’ve named two of my favorite performances from this year! Love Hunter, who’s going out on such an insanely stylized limb that her Weïrd Sisters work equally as pure spectacle and a profoundly singular characterization - she makes you wish the rest of the cast was turning themselves into pretzels while wielding Shakespeare’s language. Love Hoffmann, who is always so brilliant at concisely detailing very nuanced, messy emotions with and towards co-stars she has complicated relationships with. She conveys so much feeling for Joaquin Phoenix and Woody Norman (both brilliant) despite spending the majority of her interactions with them on the goddamn phone. Also, go read Lynn Lee’s FYC!
I’ll shout out Charlotte Rampling’s Abbess in Benedetta, who embodies a pragmatic, authoritative player in the Catholic Church’s patriarchal realpolitik with all of the skepticism and wry, unexpectedly steely humor necessitated by Verhoeven. Her eventual downfall and recrimination is the most human spectacle in the movie, made even more poignant because she’s initially complicit in it, believing her demotion to be the right choice for herself and her flock until it costs her dearly. I’m also quite captivated by Toko Miura’s laconic, taciturn performance in Drive My Car. Her companionship with Kafuku - built equally on companionable silence and revealing conversation - was my favorite part of the film, and I admire Miura’s commitment to the driver’s professional, inexpressive veneer as both a display of the character’s competence and a refusal to make her an audience surrogate for how to react to Kafuku.
CLÁUDIO: You know I love Rampling's Abbess for many of the same reasons you describe. However, it wasn't Miura who stood out to me as a prime Best Supporting Actress contender from the Drive My Car ensemble. First, because I'd probably categorize her as a lead, and, second, I preferred the work of Park Yu-rim. She plays a Korean actress cast in the multilingual production of Uncle Vanya that takes up a good percentage of Hamaguchi's three-hour epic. Acting Chekov through Korean sign language, she's besotting, but there's a lot to love about her off-stage scenes too. I was fond of the humor Park Yu-rim brought to an awkward dinner, how she delineates tricky intersections of professional and personal life in the background of busy rehearsal sequences.
NICK: Still, I think we both have the same winner in this category, an actress who’s nailing an endlessly complicated role with stylized panache and a dizzying mixture of performative excess and deeply human toil, and she might even be nominated. Who, Cláudio, am I possibly referring to?
CLÁUDIO: t's time to stop delaying the inevitable. Our deep-dive must come to an end, and we saved the best for last. Ruth Negga should be walking away with this Oscar for her performance in Rebecca Hall's Passing. I've already written a lot about the actress's achievement in my FYC write-up, so I'll just link to that piece. Nevertheless, I want to reiterate that hers is my favorite acting achievement of the cinematic year, a miraculous negotiation of period mannerism and psychological self-obfuscation that deserves applause. At the beginning of the season, the lack of critical support left me fearful, but Negga's luck has changed as the industry and prominent precursors started announcing their honorees. I feel safe that she'll get nominated at this point in the race. Victory is, unfortunately, a pipe dream, no matter how deserving she is.
Do you feel similarly reassured, or am I an optimistic fool?
NICK: Unless she pulls off a win at SAG and/or BAFTA, I have a hard time imagining her winning at this point. Passing isn’t scoring with awards bodies like I’d hoped it would (every citation Belfast gets for Cinematography over this adds another gray hair), and Negga being her film’s only representative is a very precarious place to be. I’ll keep all my fingers crossed and all my stars aligned for her to show up with Oscar, and if she somehow wins I’ll scream like no tomorrow.
All that, and now comes the obligatory but very sincere reminder that good artistry is its own reward, and Oscar or no Oscar, I simply love Ruth Negga’s performance in Passing, and will love it no matter what. Clare is such a complicated, unsettling character, and Negga is equally connected to her ostentatious, performative aspects and the very real woman who’s trying as hard as she possibly can to contort herself into having a life she thinks will truly gratify her. Negga wears these mysteries with technical mastery and voluptuous feeling, while still adding her own ideas about who this woman is (that accent!) to what Nella Larsen and Rebecca Hall have written. Her chemistry with Thompson is incredible, second only to her magnetic relationship with Edu Grau’s boldly inventive camera. I could keep talking about this performance until she wins the Oscar (let me dream!), but before we sign off, what might the rest of your dream ballot look like?
CLÁUDIO: Following strict rules of Oscar eligibility, my five chosen performances would be Gaby Hoffmann in C’mon C’mon, Kathryn Hunter in The Tragedy of Macbeth, Ruth Negga in Passing, Charlotte Rampling in Benedetta, and the heretofore undiscussed Mia Wasikowska in Bergman Island. The latter’s teary reaction in church, followed by a spirited heartbreaking dance to ABBA, is enough to grant her runner-up status behind my winner - Ruth Negga.
My Oscar predictions are quite dissimilar despite one obvious overlap. Right now, I think AMPAS’ chosen five will be:
- Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (a lock and the probable victor)
- Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog (another lock)
- Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard (vulnerable after the SAG snub, but still feels likely)
- Ruth Negga in Passing (you’ll be able to hear my scream of anguish across the Atlantic if she misses)
- Judi Dench in Belfast (my wildcard, no guts no glory prediction)
What about you, Nick? Do our personal lineups differ too much? Do our predictions?
NICK: Wasikowska’s the only actress in your lineup nowhere near mine, though the ABBA moment is choice. Negga’s my winner, with Hoffmann, Hunter, and Rampling rounding out my top four. Miura, Polly Draper in Shiva Baby, Mayra Batalla in Prayers for the Stolen, the previously discussed actresses of The Lost Daughter, and Saniyya Sidney in King Richard are all fighting for that fifth slot. I don’t know if I’d call Riley Keough in Zola and the actresses headlining each chapter of Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy supporting, but I’m open to arguments, and they’d be high on my list if I put them here. As for Oscar, my predicted five are:
- Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter (No guts no glory bick)
- Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (locked and likely winning)
- Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog (locked and maybe contending to win?)
- Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard (please)
- Ruth Negga in Passing (PLEASE!!!)
I’m likely underrating Balfe to keep myself entertained, but there you have it. It’s been wonderful to discuss this category with you.
If you at home have made it to the end of this article, thanks for sticking around! We hope you enjoyed it! Feel free to drop your predictions and personal lineups in the comments