by Nathaniel R
Chicken or egg? Egg or chicken? Have the last two weeks of the Oscar race and the very recent prizes from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Critics Choice Awards changed the game or were the upcoming 97th Academy Awards always this much of an "anyone's game" free-for-all wherein Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Perez all felt possible as the dominant film? I myself would argue for the latter. The Golden Globes (Emilia Perez dominated with 4 wins) are never the final chapter in any Oscar race, just one of its booziest most memorable chapters.
The dominant story for a week or so was the deflation Emilia Perez's, done in by a social media scandal which opened a very large window for the film's many naysayers to crash through. But it's important to remember that first industry voters loved the trans cartel musical to the breathy tune of 13 Oscar nominations...
That's a ridiculously generous number even if EP were actually great cinema! The noise and anger around its titular headliner, have made a Best Actress win impossible but wasn't that always out of reach given the dominance of Demi Moore's gorgeous brave comeback and the late surge for her most acclaimed competition Fernanda Torres? Has the EP scandal really doomed the film's chances in other categories? If voters can ignore the scandal (as they surely will) in order give the 'Best Leading Actress in a Supporting Campaign' Oscar to Zoe Saldana can't they ignore it elsewhere? Or will voters ears (again they were in LOVE with the picture just a month ago) finally be opened to the arguments against the film itself? The past week suggests so, at least in terms of actual wins in precursors.
Let's look at the latest in precursor wins (there are still more to come this week)
PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Theatrical Motion Picture - ANORA
Theatrical Documentary - SUPER/MAN: THE CHRISTOPHER REEVE STORY
Theatrical Animated Picture - THE WILD ROBOT
DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA
Theatrical Feature Film - Sean Baker, ANORA
First-Time Theatrical Feature Film - Ramell Ross, NICKEL BOYS
Documentary - Brendan Bellomo & Slava Leontyev, THE PORCELAIN WAR
Lifetime Achievement - Ang Lee
Robert B Aldrich Service Award - (for extraordinary service to the guild or its members) Mary Rae Thewlis
Frank Capra Achievement Award -(for Assistant Directors or Unit Production Managers)- Thomas J Whelan
Resurgent after its Golden Globe shut-out, Baker's wonderfully funny sad raucous brilliant Anora is now the one to watch at the Oscars. But it also might still be The Brutalist, which has more epic appeal (Oscar voters traditionally like their movies to feel enormous). Both films would make super winners so it's a win-win either way for audiences, if you ask me.
Nice get for Ramell Ross here. He is a previous nominee in Documentary (at both the DGAs and the Oscars) for Hale County, This Morning, This Evening (2019)
Porcelain War gets one up on its fellow Oscar nominees for Documentary (Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat and Sugarcane) with this win.
BRITISH SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS
Feature Film Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST
The Operators Award Karsten Bloch Jacobsen, Simon Finney, WICKED
Lifetime Achievement Dick Pope (posthumous)
Am I overthinking things or is the Best Cinematography category actually competitive this year? While it's hard to imagine Emilia Pérez or Maria winning, the other three feel viable, don't they?
COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Contemporary Film - Lisy Chrisl, CONCLAVE
Period Film - Linda Muir, NOSFERATU
Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film - Paul Tazewell, WICKED
These prizes went exactly as expected. Tazewell will win the Oscar but it's interesting to contemplate what might have won if Wicked weren't around or if they made two-parters or trilogies wait until the final installment for prizes. Would Nosferatu have followed Bram Stoker's Dracula (1992) as the second vampire picture to win this particular Oscar?
ANNIE AWARDS
Feature - THE WILD ROBOT (9 wins)
Independent Feature - FLOW (2 wins)
Special Production - ORION AND THE DARK (2 wins)
Short Subject - WANDER TO WONDER
The Wild Robot thoroughly dominated at the Annies winning all of its categories: Best Direction, Best Visual Effects, Best Character Design, Best Character Animation, Best Music, Best Production Design, Best Editorial, and Best Voice Acting (Lupita N'yongo). Curiously it was not nominated for Best Writing so Flow was able to win a second Annie. Flow is the only real dark horse to take the prize from The Wild Robot on Oscar night but it's quite a longshot (see also The Wild Robot's two other Oscar nominations).
The only live action prize at the Annies (Best Character Animation - Live Action) went to the Oscar nominated Visual Effects of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS
Picture - ANORA
Director - Jon M Chu, WICKED
Actress - Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
Actor - Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Supporting Actress in a Leading Role - Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PÉREZ
Supporting Actor in a Leading Role - Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
Young Actor/Actress - Maisy Stella, MY OLD ASS
I voted for Izaac Wang (Didi) in this category. I really wish this prize would not include adults (Maisy Stella is 21) because it kind of defeats the point of this unique category to have children compete with adults. Adults have their own categories (i.e. the big four)
Acting Ensemble - CONCLAVE
The Screen Actors Guild Awards are two weeks away on Sunday Februrary 23rd. Conclave will face off against Anora, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked. Which way will they go? I know that Conclave is the easy answer since people love it and it's not likely to win prizes anywhere outside of Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars but my guess is that this is actually a tight race. It's easy to imagine Wicked's cast at the podium, isn't it? In fact that's what I'm predicting!
Anora and A Complete Unknown would be surprises but the former has a couple of standout performances and the latter has lots of famous people in it, both of which can help in this category. And the combo of the two is why Wicked and Conclave are surely out front. It's not quite a formula per se but you catch my drift.
Original Screenplay - THE SUBSTANCE
Adapted Screenplay - CONCLAVE
Cinematography - NOSFERATU
Editing - CHALLENGERS
Costume Design - WICKED
Production Design - WICKED
Score - CHALLENGERS
Song - "El Mal" EMILIA PEREZ
Hair and Makeup - THE SUBSTANCE
Visual effects - DUNE PART TWO
Comedy [TIE] - DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE and A REAL PAIN
What a bizarre double feature.
Animated Feature - THE WILD ROBOT
Foreign Language Film - EMILIA PÉREZ
I have to admit I was surprised by Jon M Chu's win in Best Director for Wicked (since he's not up for the Oscar) given that my fellow voters in CCA love to be predictive of Oscar futures in the top categories. Elsewhere in the crafts you usually get a stronger sense of their actual preference since wins that aren't Oscar nominated are fairly common. The Emilia Pérez scandal did not stop prizes for Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Song, and Best Supporting Actress at the CCAs.
I've been longing for France to win the Oscar for Best International Feature for so long now (their drought has lasted 32 years now!) but be careful what you wish for. Emilia Pérez is my least favourite of the nominees in Best International Feature this season so if the scandal stops any of the would have been a lock prizes, please let the also-Best-Picture-nominated I'm Still Here triumph on Oscar night. Brazil has never won so it would be a wonderful welcome outcome.