by Nathaniel R
Yes, we (currently) think Glenn Close will win the next Best Actress Oscar. Yes, there are multiple reasons why that might not happen but for now we're predicting that it shall. At long last! A number of elements are there to help make that happen on paper, including (and this is no small detail) a fine role that doubles as a nifty meta commentary about Glenn Close's own Oscar history (and more largely the plight of accomplished aging women who gone unrecognized whiles others are fêted). There are things that could derail this prediction of course: an undeniable event performance (think a Monster or a Blue Jasmine though those never make themselves clear until a film is screened) or considerable career momentum (Saoirse Ronan?) or 'welcome to the big leagues' fever since Oscar loves a young leading lady (Kiki Layne?). But those are what-if scenarios just like Close winning.
Even if you take Glenn Close as a done deal for a nomination -- which of course you shouldn't since it's nothing is certain this early on -- it still looks like a good year for leading women nonetheless.
Eight questions to consider for the comments after the jump...
- Will Saoirse Ronan's recent very popular nominations make her Mary Queen of Scots role a slam dunk or does Oscar's arguable turn away from more traditional Oscar bait mean that this historical costume drama, which has been filmed multiple times, would have to be truly superb to make an impact?
- Will Meryl Streep find a surprise role that films quickly enough to be released in December and take up 1/5th of the category again as is her prerogative?
- Are they done with Julianne Moore after her win (they sometimes like to move on no matter how great you are after a career-style win) or will Gloria delight them?
- Viola Davis is headlining what sounds on paper like a true ensemble film -- will Widows surprise us and prove a better leading showcase than we're expecting given the ensemble-style synopsis?
- If Lady Gaga is acclaimed in A Star is Born will Oscar get fussy about a famous musician suddenly nudging herself into movies (as they did with Madonna and Courtney Love) or embrace her with enthusiasm (as they did with Diana Ross and Bette Midler)
- Can Mary Poppins Returns conjure even half the magic as Mary Poppins --and half is really all it would require if you ask us since Mary Poppins had more than enough -- can Emily Blunt FINALLY get an Oscar nod? She deserved one twelve whole years ago (Devil Wears Prada) and has since been firmly inside the awards conversation at least twice (The Girl on the Train and Young Victoria) but she's still waiting on the first invitation to the ball.
- If an actress in a lower profile less typically Oscar-bound film (i.e. in terms of genre or budget or mood) musters up considerable "Nominate Her!" enthusiasm which of these will it be: Gyllenhaal, Knightley, Winstead, Collette, Pfeiffer?
- If we held another Actress Psychic contest would you play along... and what type of award would you want the winner to receive?
INVESTIGATE THE CHART. What do you think might happen?
Previous April Foolish Articles
Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Screenplays, Animated Features, and the Prediction Charts