Oscar Finalist List Predictions! 
Friday, December 17, 2021 at 3:11PM
NATHANIEL R in Best International Film, Best Makeup, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Oscars (21), Punditry, Sound, composers

by Nathaniel R

On Monday (December 21st) we'll be hearing the Oscar finalists list in the 10 categories that use that process to winnow down the vast array of possibilities before nomination balloting. There were 9 previously but Oscar has added Sound into the mix this year. That category has had quite a rollercoaster of late, given that it was two categories just two years ago, it was conjoined for 2020, and now it joins the "bakeoff" groups; in short it's getting smaller and smaller each year! After Monday's massive reveal we can really dig in to each Oscar race (and closely revamp each Oscar chart) individually. Isn't it strange that the finalist lists in these 10 categories are coming so much earlier than the actual nomination ballots (which don't go out for another 5 and a 1/2 weeks.

Anyway, let's quickly predict the finalist lists, shall we? You can use this cheat sheet to laugh at me or praise me later, depending on my success rate. If there's a link we've previously written about the picture...

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
138 eligible titles

Predicted 15

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

 

In addition to my guess-work in this category (and I am not anything like an expert on documentaries since you can't be on all film types) our Doc Corner hero Glenn Dunks also did his predictions during an overview piece about the 138 eligible titles. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
93 eligible titles

Predicted 15

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

Important Note: For reasons we haven't fully understood, Best Animated Feature doesn't use this narrow-down process even though the other two "specialty" feature prizes (Documentary and International Feature) do. For this category, the voters choose the 5 nominees directly from the eligibility list. So this year they have 26 features (down from 27last season) to narrow down to five. Updated Animation Prediction Chart page. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
137 eligible scores - Unfortunately no corraborating list is available

Predicted 15

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

A couple more notes: Variety has revealed that at least five high profile films (Ghostbuster Afterlife, House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, A Quiet Place Part 2, and Respect) are not eligible in this category -- probably due to too much pre-existing music though the Academy has not released a statement since they no longer even reveal the eligibility lists. We also know, without the help of the trades, that we won't see any of the big musicals here since their scores aren't "original".

As for things we aren't predicting, it's a pity to exclude Mica Levi's Zola score but we doubt AMPAS will be tracking that picture. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
84 eligible songs - Unfortunately no corraborating list is available

Predicted 15

 

5 Alternates: 

 

 

BEST SOUND
unknown amount of eligible films

Predicted 10

 

 

10 Alternates because they've never done this before and who knows...

 

 

One more note: Isn't it strange that this is the first year of finals for Sound and they aren't even giving them a longlist of 15 but straight down to 10. For the first time we'll be able to see how powerful "Best Picture" is in the Sound race or if the longlist will lean unexpectedly heavily into noisier franchise titles. We've seen in Best Original Score (once they added the longlist process) that a lot of mainstream franchise were heavily considered even if they didn't land in the nominated shortlist.

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
unknown amount of eligible films

Predicted 10 

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Unknown amount of films eligible

Predicted 10:

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
BEST ANIMATED SHORT

As with score and song, the Academy no longer releases the long lists of eligibility so it's practically a full time job to keep track of it and even then you'll 1000% miss some. The best you can do is try to track qualifying awards at literally hundreds of different festivals (very difficult) or to follow sites that specialize in shorts -- for instance Cartoon Brew has in the past done good work trying to suss out which animated shorts are in the mix -- and sometimes publicists will let you know on individual titles but other than that it's flying blind. The shorts can qualify with no press four-walling theatrical releases (it's not just "qualifying festivals") so this year we'll just have to wait for the finals to investigate the few that remain standing. It's a pity though because we sure loved investigating those long lists of eligibility until the Academy bizarrely stopped sharing them a couple of years back. 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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