by Nathaniel R
Will there be room for both Anitas in the Best Supporting Actress race?
Nothing much has changed in the Best Supporting Actress competition over the past month except the arrival of West Side Story but, provided you left a slot open for the new "Anita" (Ariana DeBose) sight unseen -- since that role is always an awards magnet -- chances are your predictions haven't changed much since seeing the film. Even all the critics prizes and the arrival of the bigger precursors like NBR, Globe, Spirits, Gothams, and Critics Choice nods did a grand total of not much to solve the question of the "fifth slot"... only to cement that we have four near-sure things: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), and Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) who keep showing up in every list.
So who gets that fifth slot? That is the loaded multi-actress question...
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) nabbed a Critics Choice nomination and she's an interesting proposition given that an Oscar nomination would be such a record-breaker in so many ways, both returning for a remake of her Oscar-winning classic and in a different role and 60 years later, too. The fact that she Executive Produced the movie adds to the Moreno-celebratory feeling. But will Oscar go there? They're hard to predict when it comes to sentimentality, sometimes having lots of it and other times being immune to that emotional pull.
Ruth Negga (Passing) nabbed both Globe and Gotham nominations but mostly critics haven't rallied despite a spellbinding high-wire performance. All four women who are expected to land nominations with ease are doing good work but some of their roles are, quite bluntly, simple tasks once they're placed up against the intricacies of what she's required to convey to get this movie across. Can sheer quality land her in the race? We're doubtful right now, partially because Passing has been strangely overshadowed in Netflix's overflowing stable of contending films this year.
Marlee Matlin (CODA) Matlin received a Gotham nomination for her role as a deaf mother to a singing child in the heartwarming CODA. Plus, the film has shown true staying power, leading up to balloting. A nomination for her, as with Moreno, would be historic. She's still the youngest ever to win Best Actress and the only deaf actor ever nominated.
...but we've flipped back to our previous thinking that this slot is reserved for Ann Dowd (Mass). The film is reportedly going over very well at SAG screenings and if it receives a nomination for either Outstanding Cast or Supporting Actress (or both) expect a surge of attention again for the tiniest film in major Oscar contention this year. If SAG doesn't bite though, perhaps Moreno will make history or Negga will receive richly deserved attention?
Longer Shots.
Would you make a case for any of the other longshots like Jesse Buckley (The Lost Daughter) Gaby Hoffman (C'mon C'mon), Kathryn Hunter (Tragedy of Macbeth), Judi Dench (Belfast), Sally Hawkins (Spencer), Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), etcetera?
Or maybe you're in the camp that thinks that all the attention being paid to Don't Look Up will result in yet another default nomination for Meryl Streep despite critics not loving her work for once?
Revised Oscar Charts