by Nathaniel R
Annette Bening as "NYAD" (Netflix, 2023)
If I had any hair, I would be tearing it out every time Best Actress predictions must be made. There are so many ways it could go. It's always fun to fantasize about but also agonizing to worry about. Oscar history is wildly hit and miss with Best Actress lineups. Sometimes it's electric quintets and other times they ignore most of the best work for a set of solid but unthrilling performances.
The contender we're most excited / anxious about is the one and only Annette Bening in Nyad...
Nyad chronicles the triumph of open water swimmer Diana Nyad as she swam 'the Mount Everest of swims', a 110 mile stretch from Cuba to Florida at 60 years of age. Bening is long long overdue for a win having been the presumed runner up for gold twice before. There's a chance, however, that Oscar has just moved on as they sometimes do from "considering" people. She hasn't been nominated in 13 years, not even for her arguable career best work in 20th Century Women (2016). (In the prediction charts we've predicted three nominations for the film: Best Actress, Best Cinematography, and Best Original Score.
Of the films that have been people have already seen there are definitely five leading ladies that have made a consensus impression: Margot Robbie (Barbie), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Natalie Portman (May December). Robbie's Barbie is really an interesting test case here for industry and critics awards. Will people recognize her skill at playing an "idea" as it becomes a "character" or default to honoring more usual acting triumphs and/or histrionics? We'd say "not a chance" at the former -- a tough ask from generally artistically conservative awards season -- except that the film is so massively successful that some usual barriers to honors might fall away.
The only precedent in terms of 'type of performance that's rarely honored but was' that comes to mind is more than a half century ago with Julie Andrews as Mary Poppins. Not a perfect comparison but let's just say it would be an atypical nomination.
Margot Robbie as "BARBIE"
How will any of those five early birds stack up against the performances to come?
Carey Mulligan looks sublime in the trailer to Maestro but let's be honest: Oscar has been resistant to her in the past, passing her over more often than they've honored her.
Fantasia Barrino is a big question mark in The Color Purple since she doesn't have a track record as an actress. Still she could be nominated whether superb or mediocre. We don't know which she'll be or if she'll fall somewhere in between (the trailer is cagey on this question, with teensy tiny snippets rather than "clips"). This is not a criticism of a performance none of us have seen but a reminder that some roles are awards magnetized. Whoopi was Oscar nominated playing Celie and Cynthia won the Tony. Will Fantasia make it three-for-three with awards love?
Can Jessica Lange or Kate Winslet make big Oscar comebacks with Long Day's Journey Into Night and Lee, respectively? Lange is higher on the chart but, in truth, if I had faith that Lee was releasing this year Winslet probably would have made the top five.
Will Vanessa Kirby run circles around her film Napoleon? Even if she does will she be demoted to supporting since she's not the titular character?
There are so many questions.
Oscar Prediction Index
And with the Best Actress chart up saved the best for last) ALL first-round predictions are done. I've even included the Best International Feature Film chart though we don't yet know which countries will submit which films. We're starting to build out the submission pages for individual countries, too, so more of that soon. It's just fun to have charts to make / look at ... even if the AMPTP is still likely to mess up the fall and winter for movie lovers. If they continue to let their greed destroy the industry than the next Oscars will just be a three hour Barbenheimer fest. Which... well, there have definitely been less deserving Oscar winners!
Check out the charts and report back in the comments.