by Nathaniel R
It's that time again. The Oscars are Sunday night so it's time to make those final calls. Oppenheimer is poised to win big but HOW big exactly? Clean sweeps have gone out of fashion in the past 25 years. The only "clean sweep" this century -- aka a movie nominated for a lot of Oscars that won ALL of them on Hollywood's High Holy night -- was 2003's The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Even more interesting than Hollywood's turn away from sweeps is that it's become common the Best Picture winner to NOT win the most Oscars. We like it when they spread the wealth but the overperformance last year of Everything Everywhere All At Once suggests that Hollywood may be entering sweep-mindset again.
We expect that Chris Nolan's atomic biopic Oppenheimer will have the biggest Oscar haul since Return of the King on Sunday though it won't break any records...
As a refresher of which film won the most Oscars this century (thus far) it goes like so:
red = did not win Best Picture despite winning the most statues
2000 Gladiator 5
2001 A Beautiful Mind / Lord of the Rings 4
2002 Chicago 6
2003 Return of the King 11 (CLEAN SWEEP)
2004 The Aviator 5
2005 Crash / Brokeback Mountain / King Kong / Memoirs of a Geisha 3
2006 The Departed 4
2007 No Country for Old Men 4
2008 Slumdog Millionaire 8 (*ALMOST* A CLEAN SWEEP)
2009 The Hurt Locker 6
2010 The King's Speech / Inception 4
2011 The Artist / Hugo 5
2012 Life of Pi 4
2013 Gravity 7
2014 Birdman / Grand Budapest Hotel 4
2015 Mad Max Fury Road 6
2016 La La Land 6
2017 The Shape of Water 4
2018 Bohemian Rhapsody 4
2019 Parasite 4
2020 Nomadland 3
2021 Dune 6
2022 Everything Everywhere All At Once 7
A clean sweep for Oppenheimer ISN'T possible -- there isn't a bigger lock Sunday than Da'Vine Joy Randolph in Best Supporting Actress -- but we think it will win very big. From its 13 nominations it feels like the surest of things in 5 categories (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Score), very likely in 3 more (Actor, Editing, Sound) competitive if not quite "likely" in 2 more (Adapted Screenplay, Production Design) unlikely in 2 categories (Makeup and Costume Design), and an impossibility in just 1 (Supporting Actress). In short, it will win betwen 8 and 12 Oscars. So we're going to predict... 9. And it feels like such a potential sweeper that might be conservative!
In the interest of how quickly the time is passing (the Oscars are almost upon us) here are the predictions with only the true toss-ups discussed at length...
Picture Oppenheimer
Director Chris Nolan, Oppenheimer
Actress Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Up until SAG night I thought Emma Stone had this one for her vocally inventive, physically creative, emotionally exciting work in Yorgos Lanthimos trippy Frankenstein subverion Poor Things. And frankly I'm stunned she hasn't been a sweeper in the powerhouse vein of, say, Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. She could still prevail but I think it's a 40/60 fight at this point. In the end given Emma's previous Oscar win (albeit for a lesser performance) and the genre-flavor of the film for the genre-averse Academy, we think she's too vulnerable and Lily Gladstone will take this. Lily's film is just as well-nominated (and this category is her film's best shot at a win), people also love her performance, and voters love a good narrative. She was on the strike lines (as more famous actors should have been!) and she's the first indigenous American actor nominated (the others have been from other countries).
Actor Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Supporting Actor Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay Anatomy of a Fall
When Anatomy took the Globe we thought it was competitive but nothing like a lock in this category. It's up against two well loved fellow Best Picture nominees Past Lives and The Holdovers. Still, Anatomy has overperformed in a big way all season so we think it's now significantly out front in this category.
Adapted Screenplay American Fiction
We were tempted to predict Oppenheimer here, given that it feels 'sweepy' but then we remembered that American Fiction actually won this prize at BAFTA even though BAFTA barely acknowledged the film otherwise. So American Fiction it is. And it IS about a writer so...
Cinematography Oppenheimer
Production Design Poor Things
Most pundits are suggesting that Barbie will walk away with just one Oscar "Best Original Song" and while that sounds right we think it MIGHT surprise and take this. But we're not quite predicting it. In our overanalyzing imagination, there are three possibilities. Most likely Poor Things wins two to three of the eye candy prizes. Second Most Likely: Barbie sneaks a second win here for its much-discussed and very memorable production design. Third Most Likely: In the eye candy battle of Barbie vs Poor Things, they split the vote and Oppenheimer surprises as part of its major haul.
Costume Design Poor Things
Barbie should totally win this but we assume it's running a close second and that Poor Things is more generally "respected" and thus the one to beat in the Eye Candy categories.
Film Editing Oppenheimer
We'd like to imagine that this is a tight race and Anatomy of a Fall sneaks in since it's the most deserving of the five films nominated, but we think Oppenheimer takes it with ease on its very big night.
Visual Effects Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1
Visual Effects is so rarely the most unpredictable category that we have to pause to just appreciate this insanity. The Oppenheimer snub created this very unlikely death match before us now. This is the only category where ANY of the 5 nominees feels like a real possibility for the win. If you're a longtime Oscar watcher you know how rare "any of the five could win!" is. Consider: The Creator is strong in this field but the movie is so dull that people wouldn't exactly be celebrating if it won this Oscar; Godzilla Minus One will have passion votes and nobody would consider it unworthy if it triumphed but did enough of them watch it?; Guardians Vol 3 could win on genre and longterm popularity alone (it's constant visual effects from frame one) but people have really turned on Marvel this year considering the product glut and the declining quality; Napoleon could win as the most old school Oscar-bait contender if they're feeling serious but like The Creator a win wouldn't excite anyone; So in the end we've decided to predict a win that would make us cheer. Mission Impossible is enjoying the franchise's first ever Oscar night. It has the most memorable practical visual effect of the year (that train over the cliff scene). The fact that it managed a nomination is just so exciting after Oscar voters ignored the franchise for the past two decades. We'll also cheer if Godzilla manages the win.
Makeup and Hair Oppenheimer
CALCULATED WEIRD RISK. While the internet detests Maestro, Oscar voters clearly don't given its nomination tally. It could win here. So could the showy Frankenstein hijinx of Poor Things. To be honest if we were sane, we would predict Poor Things. But since sanity is not a problem, I'm going to overthink this and go out on a limb and say that this is where the sweep of Oppenheimer makes itself known. Like Gandhi winning Costume Design a million years ago. We just want bragging rights if it does happen! And also we really think it's winning 9 Oscars so we had to give it one of the categories it doesn't actually feel that competitive in.
Original Score Oppenheimer
Original Song "What Was I Made For?" from Barbie
Sound Oppenheimer
In our fantasy The Zone of Interest wins the most atypical ever Oscar here (so deserving!) but Oscar voters have always preferences Big Loud Major Sound over "Sound Design" so that fantasy will have to remain unrealized.
International Feature The Zone of Interest
We weep that Anatomy of a Fall couldn't have gone head to head with The Zone of Interest. Imagine what a battle that might have been!
Documentary 20 Days in Mariupol
Animated Feature The Boy and the Heron
Shorts Documentary The Last Repair Shop
Some people think ABCs of Book Banning could win but we think it might be too basic in its execution / form to excite enough voters.
Shorts Live Action The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
I am so sorry if this prediction jinxes it since the short is so fantastic and Wes Anderson needs an Oscar already.
Shorts Animated War is Over!
For the same reasons we predicted the nomination, we think it will win. Still if we could vote it'd be or either Ninety-Five Senses or Our Uniform.