by Nathaniel R
Sally says "Hi!" (I apologize profusively that my camera cut off her cute wave to all of you via this TIFF photo)It's getting hot up in the Best Actress race. The fall festivals have thrust a dozen or so women toward potential red carpet glory but how will time and general reviews and audience response and campaigning sort them out? It's nail-biting! At least until the first awards are handed out at which point things always narrow down too quickly.
But for now -- and it's early still (our annual refrain) -- it's appearing like it might be a battle between Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water (which has won consistently strong reviews and the Golden Lion in Venice) and Frances McDormand who stars in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, the surprise winner of the Oscar bellwether "audience award" at TIFF. It's fun to think about the performances in tandem since Sally plays a literally mute woman and Frances a foul mouthed woman who will not be silenced...
Beyond Sally & Frances, though it's anyone's guess. I'd call about 8 women strongly even at this point in terms of probability. Common wisdom says Streep (it always says Streep) but that's all just "on paper" since no one has seen as much as a clip. Common wisdom might also say Judi Dench who is another "default" choice for AMPAS voters (i.e. automatically a contender unless the film or role or immense competition says otherwise).
If the buzz shifts from either Sally or Frances as potential winners we might have a "let's finally coronate _____" style Oscar season. The two most viable options in that regard are 4 time nominee (shoulda been 6 time nominee / prev winner) Annette Bening as the dying semi-delusional former star and Oscar winner Gloria Grahame in Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool or 6 time nominee (shouda been previous winner) Glenn Close as The Wife (reviewed). The latter still doesn't have a distributor so we could be looking at a 2018 run. It's a pity that the film wasn't immediately snatched up this past week for release or we'd be looking at a sure thing (at least for a nomination). So for now Bening has the better shot since she's reteamed with Sony Pictures Classics who know how to campaign; they were behind her Oscar run on Being Julia (2004).
If I hear FILM STARS... compared to MY WEEK WITH MARILYN one more time. (sigh). This film is sooooo much better than that one!
Two more major nomination possibilities include a victory lap for Emma Stone or a possibly huge Kate Winslet star turn in the latest Woody Allen picture. And that's not even counting the longer shots for Best Actress. I count a lot of possibilities for the coveted five seats. The charts for Actress, Picture and Director are now updated (more charts to come). So curious to see where this goes, aren't you?