by Nathaniel R
What a final month this has been in the march towards nominations. What were Oscar voters thinking during the week that stretched from the Golden Globes through the BAFTA nominations? You had to freeze the buzz right there and try and make sense of it while also trying to ignore anything that happened thereafter which can't really have an effect. Hell, you can't even really be sure that things that happened during voting truly changed things. Was there time, for instance, for voters to turn on James Franco -- he was added to the long list of men being accused of sexual misconduct that week but the story didn't get loud until the last few days of voting. Did voters even notice the BAFTA nominations and their total rejection of The Post and the minor kisses blown to both Phantom Thread and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (two very last minute releases that have mostly struggled in the precursors). How did Oscar voters feel about the Three Billboards frontrunner heat and its subsequent backlash? We shall soon find out. Tuesday morning in point of fact...
BEST PICTURE <--- See the full chart for more details
The Locks Three Billboards, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Dunkirk are sure bets. They're the lineup you'd have gotten if we were still in 2008 before the Best Picture field expanded to 10 for two years and then to its current shape-shifting ugliness of 5,6,7,8,9 or 10. Eight or nine nominees is the size we've typically been getting with the new voting structure.
Extra Predictions: My gut says that only two films should feel confident about joining them. The Post has had a rocky precursor journey but that doesn't negate the fact that audiences are definitely interested in it, and it's an appealing option to any voter still pining for the simpler days of Oscar bait message movies. I Tonya was peaking at just the right time during voting and it's unique enough within its competitive field to be remembered when you're scribbling down your ballot. So, that's seven.
Eight or Nine? Beyond those 7 I feel confident about nothing. I'd wager that the next two in line (should we get 8 or 9 nominees are Call Me By Your Name and The Big Sick.
Wild card disrupters? If those aren't the top nine -- and chances of 10 nominees are mathematically extremely slim -- my gut says that Phantom Thread rather than, say, The Florida Project, Mudbound, Darkest Hour, or Wonder Woman, will kick some more precursor-celebrated film out. Why? The simple matter of recency combined with a wildly admired filmmaker who still doesn't have an Oscar if you can believe it. No, not even for writing.
BEST DIRECTOR <--- See the full chart for more details
Though I always make fun of other pundits for doing this I'm going with the DGA nominees (del Toro, Gerwig, McDonagh, Nolan, and Peele) for a 100% transfer. Which, as we've said repeatedly, almost never happens. If the Academy's directorial branch kicks one of those people out, I'm hoping its McDonagh rather than Gerwig who seems most vulnerable given the genre of her film). Who is on the outside looking in. Before The Post got shaky in the precursors I would have said Spielberg but now I'm betting that diehard Sean Baker (The Florida Project) fans or diehard Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) fans are the ones that the five DGA nominees need to be looking over their shoulders and worrying about.
We haven't had an all first timers Best Director list in 20 years but if the DGA list transfers or if the list kicks one of them out for Baker or Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name) we finally have one again! (It's so hard to remember/believe that Chris Nolan has never been Oscar nominated for his direction but it is a true fact.)
BEST SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED AND ORIGINAL <--- See the chart for more details
What a mystery both of these categories remain! Somethings gotta give in Original Screenplay. All five of the presumed Best Picture leaders are "originals" but the final lineup can't hold all of them since at least one but possibly both The Big Sick and I Tonya will make it in. And that's not all. Previous Oscar nominees or winners for writing are also kicking around in the shape of Phantom Thread, The Post and Darkest Hour.
See the charts for the final and probably incorrect predictions and report back, won'tcha?