by Nathaniel R
19 of the Oscar hopefuls in this category
If you've been reading The Film Experience for more than a year you already know that we do our best to avoid the typical Punditry habit of giving out Oscar statues before nominations are even announced. That's the super gross reductive part of Punditry and its far more exciting (and generous) to focus on who might and who should be nominated. Every once in a while the awards gods will comply and throw us a truly confusing race. Such is the case with Best Supporting Actor this season.
Depending on how you look at it there are anywhere from 10-20 contenders still in play and this is just the way we like it...
In short, force people to truly CONSIDER the field before the precursors awards cut off the dreams of more than half of them. In a more perfect world, precursors wouldn't do that much to winnow the field since what is the point of 40 awards organizations if they all have the same taste? But all awards bodies are made up of actual people and people are social creatures who are influenced by each other. So, the earlier and more your name is called out the more it's likely to be called out again and again whether you have a solid or dubious claim to the "best" adjective.
ARE THERE ANY SURE THINGS YET?
We think not, actually. Sure, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan have great shots at the shortlist and a headstart as the grandfather and dad in Belfast but we'd wager that neither are truly locked since Supporting Actor doesn't go for two performances from the same film all that often (it happens far more often in Supporting Actress). It's easy to picture scenarios wherein only one of them makes it. But which? Hinds has the kind of career in which you could picture him actually winning if nominated, but Dornan's role is larger and he's really out there on the circuit, becoming the face of the film. He's being such a great campaign sport that he even recently recreated his onscreen musical number "Everlasting Love" for a premiere event.
BEST PICTURE WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IF THE FIELD STAYS VOLATILE
Anyone who follows the Oscar race annually knows that Best Picture heat has a coattails effect on practically every other category. But the tricky part for supporting actors this year is that most of the wannabe contenders are in movies that arguably do have Best Picture heat. In short it's a great year for male ensemble players. People who could benefit from not just their own acting but the strength of their films include Kodi Smit McPhee or Jesse Plemons in Power of the Dog, and our 'no guts not glory' actual prediction is ubiquitous Jon Bernthal as an exasperated tennis coach in King Richard. He's worked with everyone and he's memorable in the film.
OSCAR DARLINGS
Given the field of contenders we could have an all first-time nominees shortlist which would be exciting. But it's foolish to count out previous winners or frequent nominees as there's already proof that Oscar voters appreciate their work. Jared Leto and Al Pacino in House of Gucci, Mark Rylance or Jonah Hill in Don't Look Up, and J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos will benefit this season IF voters want to rubberstamp past winners or nominees. Though he's never been nominated for acting, two-time Oscar winner (Pictured/Screenplay) Ben Affleck has been an also ran a few times before for his performances. Last year he definitely had some 'isn't it time to nominate him?' momentum for The Way Back. Could Tender Bar gain traction?
Finally, though a lot of pundits are counting out Bradley Cooper for Licorice Pizza, I personally am not. It's not truly a cameo (as you have been hearing) as he has two scenes and since P.T. Anderson loves to hold the camera for long scenes to let performances breath and actors play, Cooper is hilarious and memorable in it. People have been nominated for a lot less than what he does here.
HAVEN'T SCREENED YET
Nobody's yet seen Nightmare Alley at this writing but maybe someone will stand out and if that someone is Willem Dafoe he'd also qualify for the "Oscar darling" boost. West Side Story starts screening in a week, too, so we'll know then if the screen debut of David Alvarez as "Bernardo" is a possibility here.
LOVEABLE LONGSHOTS
We really hope precursor bodies will consider terrific supporting men that aren't obvious shoo-ins for Oscar nominations (for various reasons): Woody Norman gives an astounding child star performance in C'mon C'mon, Colman Domingo is Zola's secret weapon, Jason Isaacs and Reed Birney are both amazing in the acting showcase Mass, Troy Kotsur is truly affecting in CODA's two best scenes, and two time Tony nominee Robin De Jesus give his best screen performance to date in tick, tick... BOOM!
Meanwhile, I'm on record as not being a huge fan of Spencer, but it has huge fans and some of them will be rooting for never-nominated-and-we-should-change-that character actor Timothy Spall.
UPDATED CHARTS
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR *updated just now*