by Nathaniel R
Every Oscar chart has been updated. Late October is always a strange time in the awards race. It's a time when most of the major players have surfaced (at festivals or screenings) but nobody has yet seen everything and no awards groups (beyond festival juries) have sorted and sifted through the abundance. Which means anything is still possible until the critics groups and awards org begin to narrow the focus of Academy voters in ways that tend to be both interesting and disheartening. They'll boost a couple of unexpected but worthy contenders into the conversation but at the same time their hive mind choices will pour abundant love on too few titles and starve other beauties of sunlight and water.
So as you peruse the charts, answer these ten questions in the comments...
In no particular order
1 Will Hard Truths work for AMPAS?
The Academy flits in and out of Mike Leigh fandom. When critics stump for one of his films they usually show up but it's hard to say if they'll embrace (Secrets & Lies, Vera Drake, Topsy Turvy), or merely respect (Another Year, Happy Go Lucky, Mr Turner). Complicating matters is that the distributor Bleecker Street hasn't had a ton of luck with Oscar campaigns even if they've sparked some buzz and conversation and a random nomination here or there with strong films. (Mass, Disobedience, Captain Fantastic, I'll See You in My Dreams, etc...). Mostly we wonder if Marianne Jean-Baptiste can land in Best Actress, 28 years after her first nomination for a Mike Leigh classic.
2 How many sequels will score big?
This didn't used to be much of a golden question, but it's become a persistent one in the 21st century time of franchises galore. Will the October rerelease of Dune Part Two remind them of how much they loved the first one or will they divert their gaze to Ridley Scott's Gladiator 2. That dusty battle could be a stalemate with both films scoring in Best Picture or one left behind. (We assume Furiosa and Joker Folie A Deux are toast)
3 Which aging Master will get the Scorsese treatment?
With so much of the buzz (so far) centering on directors who've never been up for Best Director like Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), and Sean Baker (Anora), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), will any previous nominated favourites return? Voters can choose between legendary auteurs like Mike Leigh (7 noms but no wins), Ridley Scott (4 noms but no wins), and Pedro Almodóvar (he's won but only in Screenplay and International Feature).
4 Will the music branch give Diane Warren a 16th nod?
The music branch has been known to waste a Best Original Song slot on Diane Warren even if a) nobody watched the movie b) the song wasn't particularly good or c) it meant ignoring an amazing song in something else or d) all three at once. Given her recent Oscar history it's stranger and stranger that they ignored her in a year where she should have easily landed in the mix (Burlesque!) Will they nominate her again this year for a new Tyler Perry movie The Six Triple Eight. Why do I keep predicting that they'll break out of their cultish devotion?
5 Will Flow score twice? once? not at all?
The acclaimed animated film from Latvia could show up in both Best Animated Feature and Best International Feature (a la Flee).
6 Exactly how much Category Fraud will we see in Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress this year?
We had a brief respite from this annoying campaign/voting habit last season but this year feels potentially dangerous again. We shall see. At any rate, mad respect for Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) for a double Best Actress campaign rather than pretending two lead movies don't exist.
7 Will Denzel win a third?
Denzel Washington is getting tremendous buzz for his villainous turn in Gladiator 2 and the Academy truly loves him (9 acting nominations, 2 wins). A 10th nomination would make him their second favourite male actor of all time (tied with Laurence Olivier who is just behind Jack Nicholson). For such a leading man, it would be strange to see Denzel with two supporting Oscars... but it could happen. At this very early state I see the never-nominated but enduring Guy Pearce as his biggest threat. Pearce is fantastic in a large memorable role in The Brutalist.
8 How will voters react to Wicked?
This could truly go any which way. If it's a massive hit it'll be tough to ignore. But if it's merely successful, it's possible that they won't take it seriously since the source material is both feminine and partially comedic (Oscar prefers manly serious spectacle). Can we least assume that it'll show up in visual categories? We also don't yet know if it's any good. But what if it is? We're hoping even though we think splitting it into two halves is dangerous both for quality and Oscar dreams.
9 Will any of the International Features score big?
Last year both the French language Anatomy of a Fall and the German language The Zone of Interest scored multiple nominations and emerged as winners. France's Spanish language Emilia Perez is the buzziest non-English title (so far) but will the increasingly international voting body, fall for something else too? Germany's Persian language submission The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Brazil's I'm Still Here, and the Payal Kapadia's Mumbai set All That We Imagine as Light (which is not eligible in the International category) all have devout fans already. But will those fanbases grow within the Academy as we approach balloting?
10 Which movie are pundits (myself or others) wildly overestimating in terms of Oscar appeal?
Conclave? A Complete Unknown? Emilia Perez? Gladiator 2? The Room Next Door? Blitz? I'm leaning towards Conclave or A Complete Unknown even though I have predicted them in multiple places. They both somehow seem too 'easy' as assumptions of prestige or Oscar appeal go. Maybe even Blitz, which has already been dinged for being too 'traditional' though I'd argue that it might be a little too non-traditional for voters.
SOUND OFF!