The Film Experience

by Nathaniel R

Samuel L Jackson was Tony-nominated for The Piano Lesson on Broadway. Will the transfer result in another Oscar nomination?

It's the last four days of April Foolish Predcitions and, thus, time for the acting categories. A year out nobody knows anything, particularly in regards to the supporting categories since they're less dependent on juicy obvious-from-a-distance leading roles and far more dependent on things you can't really know in advance like who will "steal" the movie, how large their supporting roles will be, and whether they'll film will have enough heat to ignite their campaigns. This is when it's most fun, especially in the supporting categories where you can imagine almost anything happen. By the time the televised awards roll around each year there is zero drama in Best Supporting Actor (though we infrequenely see some in Best Supporting Actress).

Last year's lopsided contest was the Robert vs Ryan showdown with two full blown movie stars competing for the supporting gold, one leaning into a career achievement narrative while the other was content to ride his film's pink zeitgeist wave rather than worry about the gold...

In the end, Oscar sided with the dramatic achievement over the comic one which is the usual way of things, no matter which performance will still be talked about in ten years time (hint: it's the comic one). Will this year's contest be another slow coronation? It's been almost a full decade since we had a nailbiting finish in this category; you have to go back to the Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) vs Sly Stallone (Creed) battle of 2015 to find any 'who might win?' suspense at all at the big show.

But for the moment, nine months before the nominations, it's anyone's game. Who will get the most screentime? Who will excite the media? Who will become a flavor of the moment? Will anyone muster up a 'career achievement' moment? Which leads will be demoted to supporting? More specifically questions we thought about on the chart...

Will the two central roles in The Nickel Boys (Brandon Wilson & Ethan Herisse) be considered "supporting" since the actors are both young?
Who gets the best supporting role in Blitz?
Which "potential Pope" will steal the show in Conclave -- Stanley Tucci or John Lithgow or...?
What are the supporting roles like in Gladiator 2?
Will voters care that Samuel L Jackson just received an Honorary when considering his turn in The Piano Lesson?
What Category Fraud hijinx are in store for Sundance hit A Real Pain with its two male leads, Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg?
Does Giancarlo Esposito's role in Megalopolis have as much potential as we're guessing or is the synopsis misleading in this regard and will someone else pop?
Is Jeremy Strong's Roy Cohn in The Apprentice a showy cameo or a full role?
When will Oscar voters notice rising stars like Harris Dickinson (Blitz) or George Mackay (The End)?

In short there are a million questions and no answers (YET) so we are free to imagine almost anything. What are YOU imagining at this early juncture?

THE CHARTS!