Consensus, history, and momentum (in various quantities) suggests that only the epic drama The Brutalist, papal thriller Conclave, and raw and reckless indie Anora could win Hollywood's highest prize. BUT preferential balloting always throws a fascinating wrench into the popularity contest that is the Oscar race. Not only do you have to have a lot of votes in the end, but you also have to be ranked highly on ballots you don't win if the race is close. And won't it be? So what say you gentlemen? Who has the advantage and do pundits put too much stock into the "ranking" of preferential ballots.

 

ABE: Nathaniel, I think you meant A Complete Unknown, not A Complete Substance, but I think that speaks to how that those films aren't going to be major players. I think that, prior to Karla's tweets coming up, Emilia Perez could have competed, and both Wicked and The Substance could have been in play too had they done better on nominations day. But it's down to the three you mentioned...

A few weeks ago, when the Golden Globes happened, I would have been behind The Brutalist as the likely winner, but it just hasn't done well enough since then. Also, I think that, on a preferential ballot, those who found it too long or just didn't finish it won't be putting it first. I get how Conclave could easily do well in that system since it's very entertaining and has a mass appeal. While the same can't necessarily be said about Anora, since there are those who don't love it, the sheer sweep of DGA-PGA-WGA and its lone win for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards means that the people who love it really LOVE it. Its lackluster BAFTA performance, where Conclave eclipsed it for the top prize, gives me some doubt, but I'm less concerned about SAG going to the latter since it has a more recognizable ensemble.

ANORA

I think the rankings do matter, which could favor either film, but I do think that the late surge for early frontrunner Anora is going to make the difference.

NATHANIEL: Abe, I love that you caught my typo -- now I'm trying to imagine a Bob Dylan movie that's also a grotesque body horror indictment of Hollywood. I no longer put much stock in BAFTA as a predictor (and I'm glad for that  change. We need awards shows that aren't trying to "predict" with their voters)

ABE: What do you say, Eric? 

ERIC: I love that we're just getting right to the point here.  Is it weird that I think for the first time in a long time, it's a genuine three-way race?  Like, I would not be surprised one ounce if either of those three films is announced as the winner.  And I think they all stand about a 33% chance.  I know pundits love to do the "math" of how films have performed in the past, and because of things like the DGA-PGA-WGA sweep, it's Anora.

But this is not an awards season like we've had in the past.

I personally find it thrilling that we're not being told which film to get behind.  We talk a lot about passion, and voter passion, on this website, but I think what is neat about this year is that the films are highly, highly divisive...far more than perhaps they've ever been.  While I think on the surface it's easy to rule out Conclave as a passion choice compared to the other two films, there is a lot of passion for the film.  It's perhaps the most conventionally satisfying, which you shouldn't underestimate, and it stands as a superb third option for people who thought The Brutalist too long or Anora too indie.  

I truly think The Brutalist is going to win, not only because the people who love it REALLY love it, but because I think there are more people in the Academy who REALLY love it more than there are people in the Academy who REALLY love Anora.  But I'm bound to be proven wrong on Sunday.  It's purely just a hunch...but I guess my bigger point is that this season, everyone, even the pundits who think they know everything, are just going on a hunch ultimately this year.

I guess I will proffer this for you boys to argue with me:  I just can't see "the Academy" which sort of prides itself (despite evidence to the contrary) as being the ultimate tastemaker entity, voting for Anora for Best Picture.  I think there are a lot, and I mean a lot, of older Academy voters who turned the movie off in the first ten minutes all set in a strip club, or midway through the repetitive abduction scene.  While they've loved a hooker with a heart of gold in the past, Anora is not a hooker with a heart of gold:  that's one of the genres Baker upends so smartly.  Is the Academy really going to give the Oscar to a film about a sex worker who doesn't have a "comeuppance"?  I am not trying to oversimplify the film or demean it in any way...it's a terrific film...but we're getting into a discussion on how and why something may win or not, and I'm just not seeing it (it's the reason I don't see Mikey Madison winning either).  

Thoughts?

NATHANIEL: Eric, you've put into words my nagging doubts about Anora that I've been shoving away because I love the movie (and Sean Baker) so much. Some part of me has a hard time seeing Baker as an Oscar winner (though I believe he will be a winner one way or another this season, given his multiple nominations) . That's maybe because my first exposure to him was too indie for even the Spirit Awards (the brilliant Starlet ) and his most beloved movie might still be the one about two trans sex workers at a donut shop (Tangerine), but even after the ever-so-slightly more mainstream breakthrough of The Florida Project (1 Oscar nomination, Supporting Actor for a Hollywood giant)  he went right back to his love for less famous or unknown actors as raunchy out-of-control sex workers (Red Rocket) that probably horrified more staid industry types.

On the other hand -- there's always another hand! -- I've been burned in the past few years in punditry for not truly believing the Academy has changed; they definitely have! There's no way Parasite or Moonlight or Everything Everywhere All At Once win even a decade earlier than they premiered, you know?

Still at the very last second I'm suddenly thinking it's going to be Conclave though I predicted Anora with Brutalist as chaser. But the next person who says something smart about why Conclave won't win, I'll move on to The Brutalist. Haha. It's that kind of season and I LOVE LOVE LOVE it. If it were a nail biter, I'd be chewing on stumps at this point like I'm in my own body horror film.

What do you all think is the weirdest thing that might happen? 

Even though I have predicted The Brutalist to win the most Oscars (but still lose Best Picture) I can actually see a not-at-all impossible scenario where The Brutalist goes home empty-handed  (Anora and A Complete Unknown, Conclave and Wicked  spoiling even its most likely to triumph categories aka Picture/Director, Actor, Editing/Score, and Production Design). On the other hand, even if Anora stumbles at the finish line I don't see a scenario where it loses every single nomination.

You?

WICKED © Universal

ABE: I do think that - even though I’m predicting it to win Picture, Screenplay, and Editing - it’s possible Anora does lose every prize, simply because all those races are too close. I’d like to think that Wicked might actually benefit from a preferential ballot and shock everyone if the top vote-getters split, but that feels so, so unlikely at this point. I just don’t think any film aside from the top three we’ve mentioned has enough momentum to win big, and I think that The Brutalist has lost too much steam. I think it will win Director, but I’ll keep Conclave, which I believe will end up with a sole Screenplay prize, behind Anora, which, based on my overall predictions, will still end up with just three awards, one short of the leader, The Brutalist, which I think will also win Actor, Cinematography, and Score. Hardly a massive haul, but I really love that this may be a such a spread-out year. What say you, Eric?

ERIC: Wicked is such an overblown, lumbering chore of a movie, it would be truly hilarious if that's where we ended up after all of this.  I think there's zero chance of it being any movie other than these three.  I'm trying to think positive, which is that as three-way ties go, these are three very fine films, and any will be better than many Best Picture winners we've had in the past.

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