by Abe Fried-Tanzer
For those of us who live within the world of Oscar history and statistics, every year brings with it the proclamation that certain benchmarks need to be achieved in order to merit a Best Picture win. In just the past decade, multiple insurmountable obstacles have been bypassed, with Argo triumphing without a Best Director nomination, Birdman winning without a film editing mention, and The Shape of Water managing a win even after it didn’t make the SAG list for its ensemble. All eight films nominated this year have a variable number of impediments standing in their way this year – here’s a breakdown of the top limitations for each nominee.
BlacKkKlansman
This incredible tale of a black cop who infiltrated the KKK has actually checked most of the boxes. It has nominations for directing, writing, and editing, and earned bids from all the relevant guilds. The problem is that it hasn’t won anything, suggesting that it doesn’t have the momentum it needs to garner first-place votes. If anything, it will be Lee who upsets to win the Best Director prize or the film’s screenplay that takes home an award. Being everyone’s third choice won’t help it win the top prize.
Black Panther
As if being the first comic book movie to contend in this race wasn’t enough, the seven-nomination haul for this Marvel blockbuster is actually pretty disappointing...
It missed out on Best Visual Effects, a category that seemed like a shoo-in (even if its effects weren’t the best of the year), and it’s also absent in the directing, writing, and editing races. The only films to pull off Best Picture wins without directing or writing bids were Wings and Grand Hotel in the first decade of the Oscars, which isn’t really relevant because of nonexistent categories in the Academy’s infancy. Sure, this ultra-popular film won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble Cast, an honor that has led ten other films to take Best Picture, but is that enough to overcome so many missing metrics?
Bohemian Rhapsody
Though it does have an editing nomination, this music biopic also has no directing or writing bids, or costume design, for that matter. The surprise winner for Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes was only the second film ever to have done so without a Best Director mention from the Hollywood Foreign Press, and, unlike Scent of a Woman, the previous film that managed that, its Oscar Best Picture bid didn’t come with a corresponding nomination for disgraced helmer Bryan Singer. Its victories and achievements thus far have already defied logic or statistics, and it’s the kind of film that feels distinctly like a nominee rather than a winner, which will earn its accolades for star Rami Malek and sound, and maybe even editing too.
The Favourite
Before nominations were announced, things weren’t looking so good for this film, with director Yorgos Lanthimos missing out on bids both at the Golden Globes and with the DGA. The film didn’t make the finalist list for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. All three actresses merited individual SAG nominations, but somehow the ensemble wasn’t recognized all together. It managed to be the co-leader in overall nominations, so obviously Oscar voters love it, giving it the much-needed trio of directing, writing, and editing bids, but it wasn’t the favo(u)rite throughout awards season, which means it might have peaked (BAFTA night?) too late.
Green Book
Despite controversy about its themes and its creative personalities’ statements, this film won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and the PGA Award. Missing out on a Best Director bid for Peter Farrelly puts it in the same boat as Moulin Rouge! in 2001, more comparable than Driving Miss Daisy and Argo, both of which were already primed for Best Picture wins despite their directors not being on board. Martin McDonagh being left off the director list just last year was the final nail in the coffin of Globe winner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. A SAG nomination for Best Ensemble Cast would have helped cement its statistical chances – now it will have to depend on general enthusiasm for the film, which does seem strong.
Roma
This film has been on course to win the top prize for a while now, but it has the biggest hurdles of all. No foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture despite a handful of previous contenders, and only two black-and-white films have triumphed in the past fifty years (Schindler’s List and The Artist). It’s Netflix’s first shot at Best Picture, and its streaming origins will surely be off-putting to some. Lacking a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble Cast isn’t surprising and two acting bids at the Oscars pretty much make up for that, but a missing film editing mention doesn’t bode well for the film that could still easily make history in a number of ways.
A Star is Born
This was the assumd frontrunner for a while, and it still isn’t clear why this very well-liked film stumbled. Losing all but the Best Original Song prize at the Golden Globes was the first sign of trouble, but then it earned a far-from-guaranteed Best Ensemble Cast bid from SAG and hit all the important guilds in a way that no other film did. But then Bradley Cooper missed out in the Best Director field, in addition to the film failing to get an editing nomination. The only two recent instances of a film winning without its director nominated – Driving Miss Daisy and Argo – were already far ahead in the race, while this film just isn’t. Cooper actually stands a better chance of being rewarded for his acting in the way that Ben Affleck might have been if he was nominated for Best Actor.
Vice
This questionably-received satire was the nominations leader at the Golden Globes, taking home just one prize for star Christian Bale, who also won the Critics’ Choice Award. Its only real stumble was with SAG when it failed to receive a Best Ensemble Cast bid that even its detractors were likely expecting. When Oscar nominations were announced, it managed a bid for supporting actor Sam Rockwell in a small role as George W. Bush, along with the crucial markers of directing, writing, and editing. Like BlacKkKlansman, this film hasn’t actually won any best film prizes, and, unlike that film, it’s far from universally well-regarded, which would make its ability to pull off a win in the biggest category of the night a truly startling coup.
There are surely many other factors going against of these films, as well as a whole lot of reasons each of them could prevail, with Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Green Book appearing to have the most passionate fans despite the unlikeliest of odds. What is certain is that some precedent will have to be overcome this year, leading us all to scratch our heads and throw up our hands when next year’s race begins.
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