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98th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2025/ Ceremony of 2026
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

  

November 16 Predictions


OSCAR FINALIST LISTS IN SELECT CATEGORIES: Tuesday Dec 17, 2024
OSCAR NOMINATION VOTING: January 8-12, 2025
OSCAR NOMINATIONS: Friday January 17, 2025
OSCAR FINAL VOTING: February 11-18, 2025
OSCAR NIGHT: Sunday March 2, 2025

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Tier 1 - Predictions

stats reflected animated categories only. * indicates additional Oscar attention in non-animated category

KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
NETFLIX
June

 it's a lot of silly fun with hummable pop songs. But it also doesn't feel like the type of film Oscar voters would go for in this category.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a
good PR:
3 Grammy nominations

 

IN YOUR DREAMS
Alexander Woo & Erik Benson (never nominated)
NETFLIX / KUKU STUDIOS

 With so many animated titles released each year, which will Netflix truly get behind for an Oscar campaign? This one looks like their most "mainstream" option so it's the one we're going with at this writing.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

 

ZOOTOPIA 2
Jared Bush (1 nom/1 win) Byron Howard (3 noms | 1 win)
DISNEY
Nov 26

Jared Bush and Byron Howard return with al the popular characters from their 2016 blockbuster but will lightning strike twice. The animated branch is sometimes resistant to sequels -- even when they nominate them they don't hand them Oscars (unless they have Toy Story in the title).

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

LITTLE AMELIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN
Mailys Vallade & Liane-Cho Han
GKIDS
Qualifying Release

Reviews are strong, audiences like it - see it's festival awards, and GKids has been fairly good at landing titles in this category.

noms:
EFA
wins:
Annecy (Audience), San Sebastian (Audience), EFA (Audience)

 

 

MAGNIFICENT LIFE 

Sylvain Chomet
(3 noms*)
SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
Qualifying Release

Director Sylvain Chomet (The Triplets of Belleville & The Illusionist) returns with a biographical fantasy (set in 1955) about the famous writer Pagnol. The quiet talky French history of it all won't work for everyone but animators respect Chomet.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Tier 2 - Also predicted to be significant players

ARCO

Ugo Bienvenu
(never nominated)
NEON
Date TBA

 Bienvenu's fantasy won the top prize at Annecy this summer. It's about a boy from the future who travels through time on a rainbow. But will they like its visual style? Oscar winner Natalie Portman produced.

noms:
EFA
wins:
Annecy - Cristal

ELIO

Adrian Molina (never nominated), Madeline Sharafian (1 nom), Domee Shi (2 noms \ 1 win)
DISNEY/PIXAR
June 20

A good hearted story of a young boy who dreams of being abducted by space aliens... hijinx ensue. Audience reception was quiet and the compromises from production sure do show. But it's still possible as this is Pixar.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

SCARLET
Mamoru Hosoda
(1 nomination)
SONY / STUDIO CHIZU
Dec 12

 While Oscar skipped his previous feature Belle, it was not without buzz, and with a filmography that includes the Oscar nominated Miraiand The Girl With Leapt Through Timeand more  he has a fanbase

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

OLIVIA AND THE CLOUDS

 This was also a finalist for Dominican Republic's Oscar submission though they chose another film in the end.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

 

THE MOST PRECIOUS OF CARGOES

(France)
Date TBA

 

 Oscar winner Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) latest played festivals last year. It's been nominated for some awards but is there any passion for it? 

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

 

 

Tier 3 - Long Shots ? 

FIXED 
Genndy Tartovski
NETFLIX
Date TBA

Animators respect him but Oscar rarely goes for raunchy comedies in any category. We'll see. It doesn't have the reviews, really, to make it.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

MAYA, GIVE ME A TITLE
(Michel Gondry)
Date TBA

Winner of the Crystal Bear at Berlinale from the KPlus children's jury. The film is about Gondry's communication wih this young daughter who lives far away, as he animates the stories she tells him

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

DOG MAN
Peter Hastings (never nominated)
UNIVERSAL / DREAMWORKS
January 31

 As chaotic and nearly as fun as Captain Underpants but Oscar didn't go for that one either. We shall see. If other titles disappoint though it could have a window.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

 

CHAO
Yasuhiro Aoki
(Japan)
DATE TBA

We haven't yet heard much about this interspecies romance. Is it good? Will Oscar voters ever get interested in anime outside of Studio Ghibli? 

noms:
n/a
wins:
Annecy - Jury Prize

100 METERS

GKids 

 

Tier 4 - What Else Will Be Eligible? 

We don't have the eligibility list yet but there are always unexpected titles. Here are some other possibilities...

ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILMS

  • Bad Guys 2 (Universal/Dreamworks) US. Aug 1
  • Lesbian Space Princess (Australia) - It won the Teddy Award (for LBTQ+ films) at Berlinale
  • Papercuts: My Life as an Indie Animator (Eric Power) Date TBA
  • Sneaks (Briarcliff / Lengi) The adventures of a sneaker in NYC and his search for his sister
  • Spongebob Movie: Search for Square Pants (Paramount/Nickeloden) US Dec 19
  • Twits (Netflix)

MORE INTERNATIONAL POSSIBILITIES - WHICH WILL BE ELIGIBLE? 

  • 100 Meters (Japan) GKids used to factor into Oscar races. Can they make a comeback with this racing drama?
  • Black Butterflies (Spain/Panama)
  • A Boat in the Garden (France)
  • ChaO (Japan) an interspecies romance from Yasuhiro Aoki. It won the Jury award (i.e. second place) at Annecy
  • Decorado (SPain)
  • Dog of God (Latvia) EFA NOMINEE, Latvian Oscar Submission
  • Fox and Hare Save the Forest (Netherlands/Belgium)
  • Giants of La Mancha (Spain)
  • Grand Prix of Europe (Germany)
  • Gill (South Korea)
  • Hola Frida (Du Coup) France/Canada. Date TBA
  • Into the Wonderwoods (France)
  • Journey of Shadows (Switzerland)
  • Jujutsu Kaisen (Japan) GKids
  • The Little Prince of Shangri-La (Italy)
  • Lesbian Space Princess (Australia) -Teddy Award at Berlinale
  • Lost in Starlight (South Korea) - netflix
  • Lucy
  • My Oni Girl
  • Ne Zha 2 (Huaxia) China, Jan 29
  • Night of the Zoopacolypse () Ricardo Curtis & Rodrigo Perez-Castro
  • Olivia and the Invisible Earthquake (Dominican Republic) EFA NOMINEE
  • Our Crazy Love (Brazil)
  • Pelikan Blue (Hungary)
  • The Polar Bear Prince (Norway)
  • Rock Bottom (Spain/Poland)
  • Sauvages (Switzerland/Belgium) EFA nominee last year
  • Spermageddon (Qvisten Animation) Norway. Date TBA
  • The Storm (China)
  • Sunburnt Unicorn (Canada)
  • Tales from the Magic Garden (Czech Republic) EFA NOMINEE
  • Trapezium (Japan)
  • Totto-Chan: Little Girl at the Window (Japan)
  • The Worlds Divide (Canada) Denver Jackson

 

 

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT CHART COMING IN MID DECEMBER

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Tier 1 - Predictions

stats reflected animated categories only. * indicates additional Oscar attention in non-animated category

2000 METERS TO ANDRIIVKA
Mstyslav Chernov
(1 nom | 1 win)

Contemporary War Doc. A journalist travels with a Ukrainian platoon to rescue a village. [Ukraine's Oscar Submission in Best International Feature]

honors
5 Cinema Eye nominations, Gotham nominee,
festival prizes from:
...

Previous Theatrical Release

 

COVER-UP
Laura Poitras (3 noms | 1 win) & Mark Obenhaus (never nominated)

Journalism Profile Doc. On Seymour Hersh's coverage of constitutional wrongdoings.

honors
2 CCA Doc noms, 5 Cinema Eye noms + "Unforgettable" citation
festival prizes from:
Denver, Montclair

THE LIBRARIANS
Kim A Snyder (1 nomination)

Contemporary Politics Doc. On librarians fighting for intellectual freedom and against book banning in red states.

honors:
...
festival prizes from:
Seattle, Hamptons, Sarasota, Woods Hole, Dallas, Frameline

DEAF PRESIDENT NOW!
Nyle DiMarco (never nominated)
& Davis Guggenheim (1 nom | 1 win)

1980s Set Civil Rights Doc. Students at a deaf university demand change.

honors:
...
festival prizes from:
...

Streaming on Apple TV

 

ORWELL: 2+2=5
Raoul Peck
(1 nomination)

Historical Prophecy Doc. On George Orwell's visionary ideas about future authoritarianism.

honors
7 CCA Doc nominations and 2 wins
festival prizes from:
El Gouna

Available to Rent Online

 

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

They also feel like they could be competitive.

 

THE ENCAMPMENTS

Kei Pritzker & Michael T Workman

Contemporary Politics Doc. The story of students at Columbia University fighting to force their school to divest from funding US & Israeli weapon companies.

honors:
...
festival prizes from:
...

Available to Rent online

I'M NOT EVERYTHING I WANT TO BE

Cultural History LGBTQ Doc. A profile of a famous photographer photographing the underground queer scene in 1960s Czechoslovakia.

honors:
...
festival prizes from:
...

MR NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN
David Borenstein & Pavel Talankin (never nominated)

Contemporary Expose Doc. A teacher in Russia does undercover work to reveal the propaganda and violence of the regime. [Denmark's Oscar Submission in Best International Feature]

honors:
...
festival prizes from:
...

SEEDS
Brittany Shyne (never nominated)

Racial Politics Doc. A look at Black farmers and the importance of land ownership.

noms
5 Cinema Eye nominations
festival prizes:

Denver, Provincetown, San Francisco, Seattle, Sundance

THE ALABAMA SOLUTION

Expose Doc.
Prisoners working to expose a cover-up in one of America's deadliest prisons

honors:
...
festival prizes from:
...

Streaming on HBO

 

Tier 3 - Longer Shots?

It's tough to say with this category but we'll have the 15 finalists in mid December.

 

RIEFENSTAHL

Historical Profile Doc. On Leni Riefenstahl's artistic legacy as a propagandist for the Nazi regime.

honors:
2 CCA Doc noms, EFA nomination
festival prizss from:
Hong Kong International, Venice, Atlanta Jewis,  CineFest

APOCALYPSE IN THE TROPICS
Petra Costa (1 nomination)

Religion and Politics Doc. A look at evangelical influences on Brazilian politics.

honors
Cinema Eye Audience Choice Nominee
festival prizes from:
...

Streaming on Netflix

THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
Geeta Gandbhir (never nominated)

Contemporary Politics Doc. On bodycam footage and a fatal dispute in "Stand Your Ground" Florida.

honors
Gotham nominee, 6 CCA Doc nominations and 5 wins, 2 Cinema Eye nominations
festival prizes from:
Sundance, CPX DOX

Streaming on Netflix

COME SEE ME IN THE GOOD LIGHT

Ryan White (never nominated)

LGBTQ Doc. Two poet lovers face an incurable diagnosis

honors
6 Cinema Eye nominations
festival prizes from:
...

Streaming on Apple TV

AFTERNOONS OF SOLITUDE
Albert Serra (never nominated)

Cultural History Doc. On bullfighting in Spain.

honors
2 Cinema Eye nominations, EFA nomination
festival prizes from:
...

Available to rent online

 

Tier 4 - Other Possibilities

Obviously this is a Partial List as there are generally between 100-200 titles in the mix.

 

 

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT CHART COMING IN MID DECEMBER

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT CHART COMING IN MID DECEMBER

 

 

 

Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp ActressDirector 
Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film